Picking a player coming off of a breakout season seems like targeting low-hanging fruit. However, if Ozzie Albies sits in the queue in round three or very late in round two in drafts, this will be an easy call. Last year, 29 players scored at least 100 runs compared to 53 players who hit at least 30 home runs. Will 2020 provide different power results? Likely. Do runs as a category get overlooked every season, absolutely. Of the 29 with triple digits in runs, only four players recorded at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases last year as well, this list does not include Albies, but he’s on the precipice of this feat.
With this in mind, Albies settled in batting second for Atlanta on July 24th and remained there in 58 of his last 59 games last year. During this stretch, Albies accrued 267 plate appearances with 40 runs, 19 doubles, 10 home runs, 35 RBI, seven stolen bases and a robust .309/.363/.543 slash line. This represents 39-percent of his runs, 42-percent of his home runs, 41-percent of his RBI and 4- percent of his stolen bases last season despite representing 36-percent of his playing time. Applying the extrapolation game can be flawed, but noting Albies production level spike hitting second within this sample cannot be ignored. Here’s his spray chart from his sample:
Taking Atlanta’s cumulative total from the players batting second last year yields 116 runs, 92 RBI and 28 home runs over 681 at-bats. Predicting a spike in Albies home run total could be frivolous, but will be explored in further detail later (teaser alert). However, Albies appeared in all but two games in 2019, an impressive feat. He just turned 23 years old and seems durable during the last two years (knock on wood) logging 318 games in them.
A key to fueling an Albies breakout lies in more stolen bases. Already identified as a rare commodity in fantasy baseball, identifying players with the potential to record a career high in steals without sacrificing power or average feels like searching out a unicorn. However, taking Albies per game stolen base average (0.12) over his last 59 contests to his average games played (159) over the last two years, it equates to a 19 stolen base pace. Knowing Albies could be on base with teammate Ronald Acuna Jr. or hitting a single putting them at first and third, it feels like Albies could be more active on the bases. In the minors, Albies stole 29 bases in 98 games at Single-A in 2015, 30 across 138 games in Double-A and Triple-A in 2016 and swiped 21 in only 97 games repeated Triple-A with eight more steals during his last 57 games with Atlanta. While stolen bases translate least well from the minors to the majors, ignoring Albies ability to steal bases would be a mistake. There’s another level, not a crazy level, but 20 could be in the offing.
One of the more notable breakouts from 2019 centered on Ketel Marte ’s power surge. During his Age-24 season, Marte recorded 444 batted ball events with 22 barrels (five percent), an 88.5 MPH average exit velocity and a 5.7 degree launch angle. He also registered a 36.7 hard hit percentage on Statcast in 2018 with a 9.3 walk percentage and 13.6 strikeout rate. However, last year, Marte more than doubled his barrels (45) in 485 batted ball events with an 89.8 MPH average exit velocity growing his launch angle to 11.5 degrees. A key part of the breakout, Marte upped his sweet spot percentage by 5.2 percent with strong expected statistics (.299 expected batting average and .521 expected slugging). Beneath his 2019 results of 32 home runs in only 144 games, he cut his ground ball percentage by 8.3 percent with a growth in line drive rate to 26.4 percent.
During his Age-22 season, Albies generated 532 batted ball events with 35 barrels (6.6-percent), an 88.8 MPH average exit velocity and launch angle of 15.6 degrees. His expected batting average improved to .291 with a .490 expected slugging percentage. Albies also displayed gains in expected average versus breaking pitches (plus 53 points) and off-speed (plus 49 points). He’s aggressive at the plate, but with even a slight gain in exit velocity or barrels, Albies could raise his home run total. For reference, last year, Marte’s barrel percentage of 9.3 percent only sits 2.7-percent higher than Albies and his average exit velocity one MPH above. Plus, Albies notched a 36.8 sweet spot percent (two points higher than Marte’s) along with a superior line drive rate (29.3-percent) and a more optimal launch angle.
Scanning Albies projection sets, they account for the gains in average but disagree on potential power growth except for ZiPS:
- 2020 ZiPS Projection - 156 games, 679 plate appearances, 106 runs, 27 home runs, 86 RBI, 16 stolen bases; .293/.345/.514
- 2020 Steamer Projection - 150 games, 652 plate appearances, 89 runs, 24 home runs, 82 RBI, 14 stolen bases; .287/.344/.490
- 2020 ATC Projection - 156 games, 670 plate appearances, 96 runs, 23 home runs, 80 RBI, 17 stolen bases; .287/.341/.481
- 2020 THE BAT Projection - 154 games, 671 plate appearances, 94 runs, 23 home runs, 88 RBI, 16 stolen bases; .288/.341/.479
For Ozzie Albies to exceed expectations, he needs to reach the ZiPS power of 27 home runs along with tallying 20 or more stolen bases. Taking into account he will hit second in 2020, given at least 150 games, Albies will score 100 runs with 80 RBI. If he hits his expected average from 2019 (.291) this season, it’s gravy. Pay for his present projections in drafts, but if the career year occurs, it’s going to be a tremendous year for Albies. Calling 27 home runs with 21 steals, 108 runs and 83 RBI.
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Statistical Credits:
BaseballSavant.com
Fangraphs.com
Baseball-Refrence.com
Steamerprojectons.com
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski
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