When searching for a second catcher who will not kill a batting average with middling counting statistics, look no further, Omar Narváez could be the one. He only accrued 280 at-bats last year, but finished with 30 runs, nine home runs, 30 RBI and a .275/.366/.429 slash line. Yes, Narvaez logged extra time behind the plate due to Welington Castillo ’s suspension, but with the starting job in Seattle replacing Mike Zunino , it’s time to see if Narvaez could be worth a look.
Owners with a strong base of power and trying to keep their team average above .260 should flock to Narvaez. He’s a line drive machine producing a 29 percent rate last year and he more than tripled his home run per fly ball percentage to 14.5 percent. Since Narvaez will not change his swing, his 34.6 pull percentage and 28.6 hard hit rate cap his power. But, with more at-bats, if he scores more runs with a boost in RBI, there’s something here.
In fact, Narvaez across three seasons in the majors has yet to generate a line drive rate below 27 percent. His 7.1 swinging strike percentage and 83.3 percent contact rate from last year should keep his average at a respectable level. He also only chased pitches outside the strike zone and missed 23.5 percent of the time in 2018 and his 11.8 walk percentage should insulate his on-base percentage.
Moving to Seattle will not enhance his home run totals. Here’s his spray chart of line drives and fly balls from last year with his new park as the backdrop:
His ability to hit to the opposite field and up the middle will keep him relevant, but paying for double digit home runs will be a risky venture. According to xSTATS, Narvaez finished last year with an expected slash of .279/.369/.399 and 5.6 expected home runs. Parlay this with the reduction in ballpark effects in Seattle versus Chicago.
However, there’s a place in fantasy for players with the chance to insulate batting average. This will be a calling card for Narvaez as a second catcher in formats needing them. Through 111 12-team drafts the last month in the NFBC, Narvaez owns an average draft position of 283 with a range of 227-to-359 in them. His low cost and low ceiling means he’s valued correctly, but there’s a niche of profit if he produces an average within five points of last seasons.
In order to properly evaluate him, here’s projections from two different sites:
If Narvaez struggles in Seattle with average, his main asset will be compromised. Heed his line drive rates and approach for hopes he does not crater to his slash by THE BAT’s system. It appears the ATC line will be more likely and Narvaez owners will hope he reaches the counting statistics from THE BAT.
Omar Narváez will be as he seems. A middling second catcher with value in deeper formats, especially for teams looking to protect batting average. Pay for THE BAT’s projection and profit if Narvaez hits .270 or above.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Statistical Credits:
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
https://playnfbc.shgn.com/adp/baseball