With so many bullpen situations in baseball unsettled, targeting the right ones in the second or third tier will be pivotal this season. Kirby Yates ascended into the closer role once San Diego traded Brad Hand to Cleveland and finished with a flurry. He notched six saves from September ninth until the end of the season and surged in the second half. On the year, Yates won five games with 12 saves and 16 holds over 65 appearances. Within his 63 innings of work, Yates recorded a 2.14 ERA, 2.64 xFIP, 0.92 WHIP and 90 strikeouts against 17 walks.
His underlying numbers suggest his strong finish will not be a fluke. Yates racked up a 16.7 swinging strike percentage in 2018 while limiting contact to 68.3 percent. He also finished with an eye-popping O-Swing (swings and misses outside the strike zone) of 39 percent. Courtesy of Statcast, here’s Yates pitch arsenal:
Last year, Yates four-seam fastball yielded a .184 batting average, .213 expected average, a 33-slugging percentage, 27.1 strikeout percentage and 26.8 whiff rate. His splitter also proved effective holding hitters to a .164 batting average against with a .163 expected average, .227 slugging, 47.4 strikeout percentage and 43.8 whiff rate. According to Statcast, Yates finished in the top four percent of the league in regards to expected batting average which will be important when trying to forecast regression in the season ahead.
Seeing how he deploys his arsenal helps, he can work up in the zone with the fastball and bury the splitter to garner swinging strikes. He rarely uses his slider, and if it improves, Yates could reach another level but it’s not assured. However, here’s his zone profiles, once again courtesy of Statcast:
When researching second half breakouts by relievers, Yates emerged as one of 10 qualified last year to record a swinging strike rate above 15 percent, a strikeouts-minus-walk percentage of at least 25-percent and an xFIP below three. Yates racked up a 18.7 swinging strike percentage, a 35.3 strikeouts minus walk rate and an xFIP of 2.37 after the All-Star break in 2018. This aligns with the template provided by Josh Hader ’s second half in 2017. Plus, Yates finished with 42 strikeouts versus six walks over his last 25.1 innings.
Projection systems will not totally buy into a second half surge, but Yates expected statistics from xSTATS of a 2.45 kwFIP and .188/.254/.307 expected slash help provide a baseline to work from. If Yates finishes 2019 within his xFIP of 2.37 to his kwFIP above, his value increases. In order to establish a threshold of season, here’s his projections from three different sources:
Like any closer, Kirby Yates comes with some risk. He can give up home runs and as he enters his arbitration years, could be a trade candidate if the Padres continue to retool the farm system. However, at his present price point as the 13th reliever taken in NFBC average draft position, Yates could return a nice profit on investment. Especially if he carries over his gains from the second half.
There’s an outside chance Yates will accrue 30 or more saves atop a talented Padres bullpen. Given his chance to strikeout 90-plus hitters over 65 or more innings only adds to his upside. He did not finish either half last year with a WHIP over one, so if he migrates towards his xFIP, Yates sets up to be a bargain for those willing to speculate.
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
BaseballSavant.com
xSTATS.org
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty
Steamerprojections.com
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
MLB.com
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