Although Ian Desmond bounced back with his fifth season with at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases, he finished with a disappointing .236/.307/.422 slash line. Playing in Coors should help a player’s batting average on balls in play, but given Desmond’s propensity to hit ground balls, it caps some of the upside Colorado provides. On the plus side, almost one-fourth of Desmond’s fly balls resulted in a home run, he generated a 62 percent ground ball rate.

Viewing his surface statistics, noting Desmond’s growth in hard hit percentage accompanied less contact along with more swings and misses. This parlayed into his BABIP crater to .279, a career worst. Even with the ground ball lean, Desmond’s home BABIP of .291 outdistanced his .267 mark on the road.

Over the last three years, Desmond’s accrued 1,519 at-bats with 236 runs, 51 home runs, 214 RBI, 56 stolen bases and a .265/.323/.421 slash. Within this sample, Desmond registered a 19.4 home run per fly ball percentage but with only a 23.2 fly ball rate. His 58.7 ground ball percentage will limit his power, but owners target him for his reliable home run and stolen base totals.

For perspective, here’s an illustration of Desmond’s ground ball, fly ball, hard hit and contact rates the last three seasons:

When trying to determine his value, Desmond’s much more appealing with a higher batting average than last year. Starting with his three-year slash, there’s room for positive migration in his average. According to xSTATS, Desmond owns a .258 expected average. Not pretty, but above last year’s total.

While Desmond’s transition to Coors did not go as fantasy owners planned, a rebound can occur. Moving to the outfield full time clears a path to playing time with Daniel Murphy taking over first base. It can never be assumed, but Desmond appeared uncomfortable at first base. He’s presently slated to hit sixth which produced 76 runs and 95 RBI in 614 at-bats for the Rockies last year.

Looking at his projections, sites agree Desmond makes for a nice target for owners trying to get stolen bases from the corner infield. Here’s three different ones to provide clarity:

  • Ian Desmond THE BAT projection: 121 games, 440 at-bats, 65 runs, 16 home runs, 55 RBI, 15 stolen bases; .260/.314/.429
  • Ian Desmond Steamer projection: 112 games, 415 at-bats, 57 runs, 16 home runs, 59 RBI, 14 stolen bases; .268/.330/.450
  • Ian Desmond ATC projection: 124 games, 451 at-bats, 65 runs, 16 home runs, 63 RBI, 16 stolen bases; .257/.319/.426

When seeing the numbers listed, it’s important to note the games and at-bats. With health, his counting statistics rise with more games and at-bats. His injury riddled 2017 works against Desmond’s projections. Given he’s appeared in at least 154 games in seven of the last nine years bodes well to him outdistancing the projections. In fact, here’s how his runs and RBI would shift using the Rockies sixth batter averages from last year:

  • 500 at-bats: 62 runs and 78 RBI
  • 550 at-bats: 68 runs and 86 RBI

Predicting a player’s outcomes can be risky business. However, Ian Desmond ’s ability to generate 20 home run and stolen base seasons, another one could ensue with a bounce back in his average, just invest in the expected average, not his career rates. But, if he returns to his .268 career average, with 70 plus runs and RBI, Desmond makes for an interesting way to diversify a roster as a first baseman or corner infielder.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, xSTATS.org, Steamerprojections.com, THE BAT projection courtesy of Derek Carty