Despite missing 19 games early in the season, Anthony Rendón set career bests in both doubles (44) and extra-base hits (70). Rendon finished 2018 with 88 runs, 24 home runs, 92 RBI, two stolen bases and a robust .308/.374/.535 slash line while appearing in 11 fewer games compared to 2017. He also finished tied for first in the National League in doubles, fourth in batting average, fifth in on-base plus slugging percentage (.909), sixth in slugging and ninth in extra-base hits.
Beneath his strong numbers, Rendon surged in the second half reaching safely in 33 consecutive games between August 21st-to-September 25th hitting .369/.454/.662 during it. Over his last 25 games, Rendon scored 22 runs with 12 doubles, six home runs, 26 RBI, 11 walks, going 37-for-99 (.374) with a .697 slugging percentage.
Yet, Rendon seems to be undervalued by the fantasy community. He’s one year removed from walking more than he struck out and during the last three years owns a 11 percent walk rate compared to a 15.4 strikeout percentage. Rendon’s notched an isolated power above .200 in each of the last two seasons while increasing his hard-hit rate to 37.8 percent in 2018, more than three percent better than his prior season. For reference, Rendon’s last three years in a rolling 15-game chart illustrates his fly balls and hard-hit percentage working in congress last season:
Rendon’s been able to close the gap between his hard hits and fly balls during this time frame. This culminated in his barrel rate, according to Statcast, with a career best 47, which ranked him 20th in baseball last year:
Using this as a guide, Rendon made great strides in not only generating more barrels against fastballs in 2018, but versus breaking and offspeed pitches. Given his ability to display plate discipline, Rendon’s ability to drive fastballs along with improving against secondary pitches hints at a potential power spike in 2019. Here’s his Statcast data against each pitch type from last season:
Within all the data, Rendon produced one less home run in 2018 versus 2017 in fewer games. But, he did accrue more at-bats due to his early season aggressiveness at the plate. Once he settled in after the All-Star break, Rendon surged to a .336 average fueled by a .350 BABIP. While the average will not remain in this range over the course of a full season, Rendon’s still a very reliable hitter in terms of average.
Using his xSTATS from the last two years, Rendon owned an expected slash of .306/.416/.543 with 26 expected home runs and an expected on-base average of .406. Last year, his expected slash jumped to .311/.382/.556 with 28.5 expected home runs and a .395 expected on-base average. But fantasy owners will take this given his spike in line drive percentage, more swings both inside and outside the strike zone, aiding his 2018 power growth.
According to Statcast, Rendon finished with a 93.7 MPH average exit velocity on his line drives and fly balls with 44.4 percent of his batted ball events at 95 MPH-plus. Armed with a .292/.374/.504 slash the last three years, it feels like his Steamer projection could be too low:
- Anthony Rendón Steamer projection: 149 games, 548 at-bats, 84 runs, 23 home runs, 87 RBI, five stolen bases, .287/.372/.485
With back-to-back years of an isolated power above .200, Rendon’s also exhibited growth in home run per fly ball rate, kept his contact percentage at or over 87 percent and increased his hard-hit rate. Keying on his ability to pull the ball with great results, hit fastballs and potentially bat third, his counting statistics – good health provided – should also rise.
When hitting third last year, Rendon racked up 38 RBI in only 232 at-bats. Add in his ability to get on base over 37 percent and it’s possible Rendon could hit 26-to-28 home runs with an average over three hundred along with scoring and driving in 90-plus. Health can be fleeting with Rendon, but given his current average draft position of the seventh third baseman taken around pick 47th overall, he’s a worthy investment. Since the new year, Rendon’s still the seventh third baseman selected but his draft spot’s up to 40th overall, reflective of the data above.
While others chase sexy or upside, targeting Rendon for a potential career season in terms lies within the realms of outcomes. Finding batting average insulation with upside will be rare, this season, but Rendon represents of these profiles.
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, xSTATS.org, Steamerprojections.com
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