With Coors Field adopting the use of a humidor in 2002, no other team’s followed suit, until the announcement this week of Chase Field employing a similar facility. Much of the machinations and explanations appear in this article (Please link Dan’s piece here chrome-extension://bpmcpldpdmajfigpchkicefoigmkfalc/views/app.html) by our own Dan Malin. He explored the potential effects of the humidor along with some players who could be affected by it.
For the cliff note version, the coefficient of restitution (COR) or “bounciness” of baseballs will be reduced in Arizona due to the low humidity present at the ballpark along with storing them at 70 degrees. Due to the potential of the humidor, exit velocity could decrease by 3.8 MPH on average which needs to be factored in for the Diamondback hitters and pitchers alike. Hitters will suffer from this while pitchers will reap the rewards.
On the surface, it seems salient to explore the amount of home runs hit last year by Arizona players in home games. Here’s a chart to explore this with some interesting reductions. Each column following the total, rounded up, shows how home run totals could decrease in home games as a result. Since the author of the study, Alan Nathan, mused there’s a chance home runs could decrease between 25-to-50 percent, this chart takes into account the 25 percent drop, the median, 37 percent and the lowest potential decrease of 50 percent.
Fantasy players looking to roster Paul Goldschmidt will not like the resulting potential illustrated above. However, there’s more to a player not hitting home runs than just raw data. Before delving into this, here’s how pitchers on the team could take advantage of humidor in regards to fewer home runs in Chase Field:
Again, this data does not take into account the many factors which not only affect the flight and distance of a baseball, but predicting outcomes based solely on one number proves difficult. However, fantasy players initial reactions to the numbers shown could be reflected in average draft positions soon. Especially applicable to their best fantasy commodity, Paul Goldschmidt.
In order to be fair to him and other fantasy staples on the team, ensuing information for the players will include data from last year, their accompanying numbers from xSTATS and how much impact the humidor impose.
Paul Goldschmidt
Representing a fantasy staple of reliable production, could the humidor make Paul Goldschmidt an eventual bargain? He’s averaged just short of 55 home runs plus stolen bases the last three seasons with a .305/.417/.540 slash line. His blend of power with speed and average plus the counting statistics make him pillar in the first round.
In order to do him justice, here’s a look at Goldschmidt’s numbers last year with his xSTATS results listed to try and see how his production looks:
Since part of the equation with the humidor will be to lower BABIP and possibly batting average, this component of Goldschmidt’s game could receive the biggest hit. Goldschmidt actually generated two fewer home runs at home last year compared to his expected total and his numbers on the road fall in line. It’s the drop in average and expected average without the support of his home park which should jump off the page. It’s highlights the potential for Goldschmidt’s average to migrate towards the xSTATS expected average of .288 on the road over the course of a full season.
Also, exit velocity will be a factor in all of this. Last year at home, Goldschmidt’s home EV of 93.2 MPH could fall victim to the humidor and mirror his road EV of 90.5 MPH. This almost unites with the predicted 3.8 MPH drop in exit velocity alluded to above. Food for thought. Although much will be debated regarding to Goldschmidt’s power numbers decreasing, perhaps it’s the counting stats and average fantasy owners should key in on.
Jake Lamb
There could be no more polarizing figure in all of this than how Jake Lamb’s 2018 could turn out in regards to the humidor. His second half collapse combined with some doubting his overall production along with morphing into a potential platoon player, Lamb’s value could crater as a result of the humidor. Here’s his numbers as a comparison to Goldschmidt:
At first glance, Lamb stands to lose as many as four home runs at home just with last year’s expected statistics without the humidor involved. Surprisingly, Lamb fared better on the road last year than many people give him credit for and his exit velocities, 87.9 MPH at home versus 88.7 MPH on the road, do not foretell total doom.
Not only will Lamb be up for debate in regards to his projections, but some will be enticed by his past results. Personally, he’s a hard pass this year with the humidor news, let someone else take on the inherent risk.
Other Diamondback hitters….
Speaking of pass, Brandon Drury almost exclusively exacts all of his damage in Chase Field, the news of the humidor sinks any feelings of him being a late round sleeper. Yasmany Tomas owns some interesting numbers from 2016, since last year’s small sample and injury seems contrite to use. But, his exit velocity at home last year rose to 95.1 MPH which would still be very good with the 3.8 MPH reduction on average due to the humidor. Unlike many other Diamondbacks, Tomas could be sneaky if he can stay on the field and hits in a spot in the lineup where he could produce. Like many others, his value will be tied to his home park and many will pass, including myself, on taking him in later rounds for upside, but he could be sneaky if able to roster the risk.
Good news in the pitchers, right?
Speculation seems to center on Chase Field transitioning from baseball’s second best hitting environment last year to the middle of the road. Centering on the 25-to-50 percent home run reduction, less runs will be scored. Plus, the lower exit velocities should benefit Diamondback pitchers. Here’s a chart showing their xSTATS with home and road splits included as a reference point:
Zack Greinke
- 2017 Home splits: 2.87 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 0.96 WHIP, 24.1 K-BB%
- 2017 Road splits: 3.65 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 1.23 WHIP, 17.6 K-BB%
In spite of the tough pitching park Chase Field used to be, Zack Greinke turned in better splits at home in actual statistics and in the xSTATS versions. Oddly enough, his numbers do not show much room for growth, but do seem to be the most stable of the group going forward, which most knew anyways.
Robbie Ray
- 2017 Home splits: 4.08 ERA, 4.45 FIP, 1.35 WHIP, 18.6 K-BB%
- 2017 Road splits: 1.86 ERA, 3.09 FIP, 0.99 WHIP, 25.4 K-BB%
No other pitcher on the Diamondbacks could benefit from the humidor more than Robbie Ray. With the humidor, Ray’s great road splits and terrible home rates should now trend towards each other. We’ll see some regression with his road ratios, but with the improved ballpark effects and a better feel of his slider, his home/road splits could meet closer to the middle. Especially when considering Ray’s most glaring weakness can be allowing hard contact. At home, his average exit velocity against of 90.6 MPH could trend nicely towards his 87.5 MPH mark on the road. Review his xSTATS numbers in the chart near the start of this to see the potential upside. Plus, if his strikeout rates at home increase by say five percent, Ray could reach 230 or more strikeouts in 2018.
Taijuan Walker
- 2017 Home splits: 4.18 ERA, 4.90 FIP, 1.30 WHIP, 11.2 K-BB%
- 2017 Road splits: 2.92 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 1.36 WHIP, 13.5 K-BB%
Many think the pitcher to gain the most value could be Taijuan Walker, but his problems with WHIP, even on the road, and the lack of strikeouts last year seem to make him stall in his development. Especially when Walker did not grow in chase rates or overall production. His ERA and FIP from the road translated to home games seems enticing, but unless there’s a jump in strikeouts with less traffic on base, Walker remains a tease.
Patrick Corbin
- 2017 Home splits: 3.15 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 1.40 WHIP, 13.9 K-BB%
- 2017 Road splits: 5.09 ERA, 5.11 FIP, 1.44 WHIP, 14.4 K-BB%
Another perception does not equal reality. Prior to researching this, no way did it factor in Patrick Corbin pitched better at Chase Field last year than on the road. He offers the same risk as Walker in terms of being a potential damage to ratio statistics like WHIP. Plus, Corbin already pitched well at home last year, his road struggles need to be reigned in for him to make a fantasy impact. Wins could be nice, but it’s a fluky statistic.
Zack Godley
- 2017 Home splits: 3.45 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 1.03 WHIP, 17.9 K-BB%
- 2017 Road splits: 3.29 ERA, 3.07 FIP, 1.25 WHIP, 17.8 K-BB%
Just like last season, Zack Godley’s numbers seem to come out of nowhere. But, he could evolve into the third best pitcher on this staff. With the news of the humidor, his numbers should improve at home to move his FIP more towards his road results of last year. Godley also could benefit the most from fewer home runs since his 10 homers allowed in Chase Field last year could migrate towards his expected total of four according to xSTATS. Like many, Godley seemed like a regression candidate, but this news along with the underlying statistics seem to support him.
Be sure to make cognizant decisions regarding all the ensuing hype the Chase Field humidor will generate. It’s going to affect players in both positive and negative ways, but trying to predict the final numbers will be impossible. Much will be learned after a season and the Diamondbacks should act accordingly next year. Fantasy tremors will be felt, but to what level remains to be seen.
For added insights, check out the updated version of Ballpark Facotrs by Dan Malin in the 2018 MLB Living Draft Guide.
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com, xSTATS.org
https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/a-humidor-at-chase-field-whats-up-with-that/