Perhaps the poster boy for not giving up on a post-hype talent in fantasy. Lucas Giolito appeared to be a bust after his trade to the White Sox but after winning 18 games his last two seasons, he's moved into the near-elite strata of starting pitchers. During a truncated season he went 4-3 with a 97:28 K:BB over 72.1 innings spanning 12 starts. His ratio statistics of a 3.48 ERA, 3.51 SIERA and 1.04 WHIP check the boxes though the earned run rate needs to come down a hair to be considered elite.
He recorded a 33.7 strikeout percentage with a 9.7 walk rate in 2020 along with a career high 17.3 swinging strike percentage. His contact allowed fell across the board with a 65.8 contact rate and 74.6 Z-Contact (in the strike zone) percentage. All while keeping his O-Swing (outside the strike zone) percent stable.
According to Statcast, Giolito yielded 161 batted ball events giving up nine barrels (5.6 percent) and an average exit velocity of 87 MPH. Even more alluring than the drop in barrel percentage allowed, his expected statistics of a .195 expected batting average (xBA), a .269 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) and 3.04 expected ERA (xERA). If migration to the mean ensues and he carries over the gains fueled by his change-up.
Segue alert. In 2019, Giolito deployed his change-up 26.2 percent of his total usage. However, note the new rate along with how he attacks hitters in his swinging strike chart from Statcast:
Using elevated fastballs with his change and slider below the zone enabled his career best in swinging strike percentage noted earlier. Here's his repertoire in chart form highlighting how effectively they meshed together last season:
Pitch | Usage | xBA | xwOBA | Whiff% | Put Away% | K% |
4-Seam | 50.6% | .222 | .260 | 29% | 22.5% | 31.6% |
Change | 33.7% | .162 | .249 | 41.4% | 24.8% | 32.7% |
Slider | 14.7% | .173 | .227 | 52.6% | 19.2% | 50% |
For the visual crowd, here's how Giolito effectively places his pitches starting with an elevated fastball producing a swinging strike:
When ahead in the count, he can break off a nasty change-up which dives out of the strike zone:
And, how can one ignore this swinging strike versus Nelson Cruz on a filthy slider:
Putting this into perspective, Giolito upped his swing percentage against last year slightly (1.3 percent) but his whiff rate rose by over four percentage points. He induced more ground balls (GB% up 7.8 percent) with fewer line drives helping him cut his barrel percentage against. Versus his peers, he ranked in the 92nd percentile in strikeout percentage and the 94th percentile in whiff rate.
Keeping his arsenal in a stable release point unlocks his strikeout capabilities:
Plus his ability to attack hitters at the edge or outside of the strike zone helps him put them away:
When viewing a swing and take profile on Statcast, hitters hope to own a positive number while pitchers aspire for one with a negative rating:
Checking all the boxes on Statcast, one more site needs to be explored to discern his swinging strike percentage by pitch. Brooks Baseball does this and Giolito displayed gains across the board:
Pitch | Year | Swinging Strike% (SwStr%) |
4-Seam | 2019 | 12.75% |
4-Seam | 2020 | 13.62% |
Change | 2019 | 22.85% |
Change | 2020 | 23.6% |
Slider | 2019 | 19.47% |
Slider | 2020 | 22.33% |
This information would be enough to target Giolito as a top-five pitcher in 2021. But, he's not done trying to add a pitch alluded to in this column by Scott Merkin of MLB.com regarding adding a "downer". Essentially, a modified curveball which would fit within his release point and further confound hitters if he can refine during spring training.
Before diving into his projections, expanding his sample size helps compare past production with future results:
- Giolito 2H 2019-through-2020: 7-9, 149 IP, 205:47 K:BB, 3.62 ERA, 3.28 SIERA, 1.05 WHIP, 34.5 K%, 7.9 BB%, 16.4 SwStr%
Amongst his peers, he ranks fifth in strikeouts, fourth in strikeout percentage, tied for third in swinging strike percentage, fifth in K-BB percentage and fifth in SIERA (best predictor of future ERA).
Now for his projections:
Knowing Giolito could be a top-five starting pitcher comes as no surprise. However, if the new pitch unlocks more strikeouts, he may be closer to elite than many perceive. If missing out on the top three in drafts, he makes for a terrific pivot with some untapped upside for 2021.
Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
BaseballSavant.com
BrooksBaseball.net
Steamerprojections.com
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski
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