Welcome to the newly launched PrizePicks CS:GO DFS article provided by Fantasy Alarm! In this article, I will provide 2-3 of my favorite prop bets from the Prize Pick CS:GO Projections posted on their app!
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PrizePicks Prop Selection:
ropz (MOUZ) - Under 20.5 Headshots vs. BIG (Maps 1-2) - 7:00 A.M. ET
Ropz has been one of the most dominant riflers in the world in the past three months with a 1.18 Rating, 0.77 kills per round, and a 51.1% headshot rate across 32 maps played. However, he picks up the secondary AWP on some maps, and he is less likely to get headshots with that weapon since a body shot is a one shot kill. There is a good chance that BIG pick Dust2, and ropz has more kills with the AWP than any other weapon on Dust2 in the past three months across two maps played. As a result, his headshot rate has only been 40.6% during that time. Thus, I love the idea of targeting the under on ropz’ headshot projection when Dust2 is expected to be in the map pool since he should have the AWP on his hands for some CT rounds. MOUZ have been flexible with their map bans, and they could maybe choose to remove Dust2, in which case BIG would likely go for Vertigo, but ropz’ headshot rate has been 47.7% on that map in the past three months which is below his average, though his form has been great overall on Vertigo, and he would not be AWPing. I expect MOUZ to choose Inferno as their map pick, and ropz has averaged 11 headshots per map across two maps played on Inferno at this event, which means that his total can easily go under based on BIG’s map pick, especially if we see him pick up the secondary AWP.
MOUZ are slight favorites at (-120) moneyline odds, and I do think that they can win the series, possible even in two maps, and Inferno should be a quick win if they pick it. Ropz has been the third highest rated player at this event with a 1.29 Rating across six maps played, so I don’t necessarily love targeting the under on his kill total although the projection does seem high here. I do think that there is plenty of value on the under for his headshot projection at 20.5 considering the projected map pool though.
Xyp9x (Astralis) - Over 15.5 Headshots vs. Spirit (Maps 1-2) - 11:00 A.M. ET
I expect Spirit to choose Dust2 as their map pick, and there are a lot of ‘aim battles’ that take place on that map, which could lead to plenty of headshots for a rifler like Xyp9x, since he doesn't normally pick up the secondary AWP like ropz. Xyp9x has a 56.6% headshot rate on Dust2 in the past three months, though the rest of his stats have been subpar with a 0.84 Rating during that time. Astralis have had a lot of moving parts as of late, which may explain Xyp9x’s recent struggles on Dust2, but Xyp9x signed a new contract in October that solidified his spot with the team until 2025, so perhaps we can expect more consistency. Plus, we know what he is capable of on that map, like at the last LAN event that Astralis played Dust2 on, IEM Cologne 2021, where Xyp9x had a 1.16 Rating with 0.75 kills per round and a 46.7% headshot rate across four maps played. Yes, there was a recent update to Dust2, but that pretty much just takes away from AWP duels down mid, so that shouldn't be something to worry about. I expect Astralis to choose Inferno as their map pick, and Xyp9x has been excellent on that map with a 1.12 Rating, 0.65 kills per round and a 54.3% headshot rate across two maps in the past three months.
Astralis are (-150) favorites here, but both teams will be desperate for a win as they are facing elimination, and this will likely be a very competitive series. I expect these teams to split the first two maps, and we will probably see a lot of rounds played on each map. Xyp9x has heated up the past two days with a 1.07 Rating and 0.70 kills per round across four maps played, and I fully expect him to show up with a big performance in this crucial spot. I like the over for his kill total too, but I prefer targeting his headshot total based on the projected maps.