He wasn’t perfect, in fact he was far from it, but Boston’s Matt Barnes got the job done in 2020. His 4.30 ERA left some to be desired, but he managed to convert 9-of-13 save opportunities and post a strikeout rate above 30 percent for the third straight season. Now, there were some negative aspects from his 2020 campaign that don’t necessarily bode well going forward if he can’t correct them, or at least improve upon them, and he finds himself in the thick of a closer battle with offseason acquisition Adam Ottavino . Can Barnes lock down the closer spot, and even if he can’t do that, will he prove to be valuable enough to be rostered as a ratio-improving reliever? Let’s examine.

Command is, and likely always will be an issue for Barnes. His walk rate jumped to a career worst 13.7 percent, and that certainly didn’t help his case at all. From the breakdown below, courtesy of Baseball Savant, you can see the slow and steady rise in his overall walk rate. To his credit it got better down the stretch, and September was actually his best month, as he posted a 2.70 ERA and just four walks across ten innings, while striking out 15.

 

 

 

 

 

 

While he actually threw his pitches in the zone more than recent years, his zone contact remained slightly elevated, but he allowed more contact out of the zone. Essentially, his pitches out of the zone didn’t register as many whiffs as we would like. This explains the reduction in his strikeout rate to an extent.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

When he didn’t strike someone out or walk them, overall, the results were uninspiring. His exit velocity allowed, hard hit rate, and barrel rate fell in the sixth, 11th and 12th percentile respectively. His 91.3 mile per hour exit velocity was the worst of his career, as was his 10.9 percent barrel rate. Barnes’ launch angle bumped up to 11 degrees, and the imperfect perfect storm of elevated launch angle and increased hard contact specifically on fly balls and line drives led to home run issues for the veteran right-hander.

Year

Launch Angle

EV on FB/LD

HR/FB%

HR/9

2018

6.1

93.8

11.4%

0.73

2019

9.1

91.8

19.5%

1.12

2020

11.1

94.9

23.5%

1.57

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

If he doesn’t get this in check, his division in particular will give him fits. New York and Toronto have power in their lineup from top to bottom, Baltimore has some pop with a hitter friendly home park, and Tampa is sneaky good on offense. His 45.3 percent ground ball rate was the lowest of his career, so if he doesn’t generate more ground balls, perhaps a mark closer to 50, he could be in line for another year of the long ball being an issue, which certainly won’t extend his leash as the team’s closer, should he grasp that role.

Despite some of the more glaring issues from Barnes’ 2020 campaign, there is some light at the end of the tunnel. September was his best month of the year, and the marks he posted there are far more indicative of someone who is capable of winning and locking down the ninth inning job for his team. The big improvements were the increase in his strikeout rate, as well as reductions in his walk rate, home runs, and exit velocity.

 

K%

BB%

HR/9

Launch Angle

EV

Barrel Rate

Pre-September

26.2%

16.4%

2.08

11.9

93.0

9.1%

September

36.6%

9.8%

0.90

9.9

88.8

13.6%

Courtesy of Fangraphs & Baseball Savant

As you might expect, the reduction in launch angle helped his ground ball rate, too. Pre-September, his ground ball rate of 41.9 percent is less than ideal. In the month of September, it was at an even 50 percent. Much, much better, Mr. Barnes.

Adam Ottavino has an electric arsenal and can rack up strikeouts in bunches. The 2020 season marked just the second time in the past six years that his strikeout rate fell below 30 percent. Furthermore, his 5.89 ERA in 2020 was ballooned by an outlier .375 BABIP, and his 3.52 FIP and 3.78 xFIP corroborate that notion.

Barnes finds himself in the thick of a closer battle that likely will remain fluid, at least in the early part of the season. Boston has seemed to sour on Barnes a bit in the ninth inning, but he was pretty darn good over the final month of the season. At his current price in NFBC drafts, you can take a dart throw at Barnes, but he should not be drafted as THE closer of the Red Sox. This is a situation that I very much expect remains fluid and could see a “hot hand” approach for the lion’s share of the year, barring an injury.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball