In the power department, you’re hard pressed to find a more elite producer at the hot corner than Cincinnati slugger Eugenio Suárez . He did a lot of the same in 2020 as recent seasons, with just one big drop off: batting average. He posted an ISO above .200 for the fourth straight year, and his .268 ISO in 2020 was the second-best mark of his career. His HR/PA mark was right in between his 2018 and 2019 marks, and his 14.4 percent barrel rate was a career best. So, what the heck happened for his batting average to plummet to .202? And what are the chances he rebounds to normal marks? Let’s dive in.
Per FanGraphs, his hard-hit rate took a massive step back. He was 46 percent or higher in 2018 and 2019, but in 2020, it was down to 34.1 percent. Furthermore, he’s pulling the ball more than ever. In 2020, his pull rate of 54.5 percent was even higher than last year’s lofty 52 percent mark. So, yes, he experienced quite a shift.
Specifically, on balls that he pulled, his batting average was .306. For the record, it was .373 or higher each of the past two years, and at least .320 in all but one year prior to 2020. When you look specifically at pulled ground balls, the mark is staggering.
Year | Shift Rate | AVG | Soft Contact % | Hard Contact % |
2016 | 11.3% | .190 | 11.4% | 25.7% |
2017 | 11.9% | .102 | 21.4% | 16.3% |
2018 | 24.7% | .173 | 9.2% | 49.0% |
2019 | 45.9% | .221 | 10.6% | 49.0% |
2020 | 69.6% | .132 | 15.8% | 21.1% |
Courtesy of Baseball Savant
Suarez took a massive step back in the batting average department, due to what was mentioned above, but interestingly enough, not from his strikeouts. Yes, his strikeout rate is elevated, and his 2020 mark was a career worst at 29 percent, but the silver lining here is that Suarez is pretty lucky that it was only 29 percent. His strikeout rate has risen three straight years, but perhaps the minor jump in 2020 was quite lucky.
There are a lot of things going the wrong way (leaving the strike zone, contact rate, contact in the zone, etc.), but the strikeout rate remaining rather steady isn’t what I would have expected. His plate discipline metrics look quite similar to Kyle Schwarber and Yoán Moncada , who posted strikeout rates of 29.5 percent and 31.2 percent respectively.
Name | Team | K% | O-Swing% | Z-Contact% | Contact% | SwStr% |
CHW | 31.20% | 29.00% | 86.80% | 72.60% | 11.70% | |
CHC | 29.50% | 29.80% | 81.10% | 73.70% | 11.20% | |
CIN | 29.00% | 26.90% | 82.70% | 70.70% | 12.20% |
Courtesy of FanGraphs
Suarez should bounce back in 2021, and even if the batting average doesn’t fully rebound, it doesn’t matter. You draft Suarez for his power numbers and fortunately he hits in an excellent hitter’s park. Sure, he hit .202 last year, but 15 home runs and 38 RBI were still incredible. In fact, of players with at least 198 at-bats last season (that’s how many Suarez had), only eight players posted a better AB/HR mark than Suarez (13.2). It’s very well possible he gets his average back to his normal marks, thanks to an incredible offensive profile and propensity to barrel up baseballs at an astronomical rate. However, even if it doesn’t get all the way there, he’s a guarantee for 30+ round trippers.
Since the start of the 2018 season, no third baseman has more home runs than Suarez (98) and the next closest is Nolan Arenado , who is 11 homers behind! As the ninth third baseman off the board, per NFBC data, Suarez’s power potential is undeniable and honestly, incredibly hard to pass on. However, he’s not getting cheaper in drafts. Take a look at his draft trends, per NFBC data, and you’ll see that line is plummeting, signifying that his average draft position is moving up in drafts, costing more significant draft capital.
The earlier he begins to go in fantasy baseball drafts, there is an increased necessity on the batting average returning and the power remaining steady. Now, I don’t have concerns about the latter, but the former isn’t as close to a guarantee as the latter. Well, if there was such a thing as a guarantee.
Personally, I’m in on Suarez for his elite barrel rate and power numbers, but concerns about where his batting average ends prevent me from pushing him up in drafts.
Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball
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