2021 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Mike Trout

You don’t need me to tell you, but Mike Trout is good at the game of baseball. And for the first time in years, there’s a very real likelihood that you could acquire his services without having the first or second pick in your draft. Crazy, I know! A season unlike any other couldn’t slow Trout, as he hit 17 home runs and drove in 46 runs in just 53 games last year. He only stole one base, so that was disappointing, which also gives him just 12 stolen bases over his last 188 games played. Trout may not be the all-around fantasy force he was in years past, but he’s still one of the game’s best fantasy assets.

His 17 home runs in 2020 were right on pace with previous seasons. His 11.7 AB/HR falls right in line with his marks in the past couple years. In fact, since 2017, he’s ranged anywhere from 10.4 AB/HR to 12.2 AB/HR. His exit velocity was up last season and was his highest in the past couple of seasons and his launch angle remained above 22 percent. His barrel rate dropped a bit, but not enough to have you concerned heading into your fantasy baseball draft(s). Although the overall barrel rate dropped, and rather significantly against fastballs and offspeed pitches, it jumped nicely against breaking pitches. It was his highest mark since 2015

Two things from his batted ball profile did stick out: his walk and strikeout rates. His walk rate dropped a bit, and his strikeout rate increased. Why? Shortened season? Perhaps. Did he chase more? Not really, but he did whiff more on non-fastballs in the strike zone.
 

In fact, his in-zone swing and miss rates against offspeed and breaking pitches were both career highs for the superstar outfielder. Furthermore, when Trout did leave the strike zone, he was missing more frequently. I believe this is the main culprit for his elevated strikeout rate in the shortened 2020 season.

Trout has proven to put up big numbers regardless of his lineup, but one could argue that his supporting cast in 2021 is better than recent seasons. David Fletcher should do a good job at the top of the order in getting on base, and the Angels have plenty of options for that number two spot in the lineup. Could Trout hit there? Sure. They could opt for youngster Jared Walsh , or perhaps a more proven commodity like Anthony Rendon or Shohei Ohtani . What if uber-prospect Jo Adell fixes his strikeout woes and lives up to the billing in 2021? Stacking the lineup with on-base machines ahead of Trout sets him up for a monster campaign, even if he isn’t the demon he once was on the base paths.

The days of Trout stealing bases are done. He’ll get a handful, sure, but anything higher than 15 would be a large win in 2021. If you’re fortunate enough to get Trout with the third, fourth or maybe even fifth pick, be happy if he swipes 15 bags. He’s not the overpowered fantasy asset he once was, but he’s still damn good and it doesn’t cost the first overall pick to get him anymore (in some drafts).

Drafting Trout provides your team with an unbelievable track record of consistency and offensive production. Prior to 2020, he posted eight straight seasons with at least 27 home runs and ten stolen bases, and he had 30 or more homers in five of the six years prior. Also, his Statcast page is littered with elite numbers, which of course are excellent.

At some point, he’ll decline, and we are starting to see it with his stolen base totals, but there’s no sign of his bat slowing down anytime soon. He’s arguably one of the game’s most feared hitters, and for fantasy purposes, you can bank on 35 home runs, around 100 runs and RBI and a batting average anywhere between .285-.300+. 

Sure, Ronald Acuna and Fernando Tatis Jr. are more flashy picks, but with the bat, good luck finding someone as consistent as Trout. Since 2017, he’s first in home runs, sixth in runs scored, 11th in batting average and first in WAR. There’s safety in security and even though he isn’t the overpowered fantasy asset he once was, there’s no faulting anyone for taking him in the first five or six picks.

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Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball