It was a solid first year in Washington for left-hander Patrick Corbin . While he couldn’t replicate his excellent 2018 season, Corbin was just fine in 2019. He went 14-7 with a 3.25 ERA across 202 innings of work and posted a respectable 10.60 K/9. While his overall strikeout rate fell slightly (30.8 percent in 2018 to 28.5 percent in 2019), it’s still above average, but an uptick in walks from the year prior, and overall, he actually pushed his WHIP closer to 1.20. His 8.4 percent walk rate last year was the second highest mark of his career, and opponents didn’t quite chase as much as the year before, which was the only other season is zone percentage was below 40 percent.
At face value, his fly ball rate increased, but he’s still inducing ground balls more often than not, and was able to cut his line drive rate down a smidge. His hard contact allowed dropped overall, so that’s solid, too. His 9.4 percent barrel rate, however, is less than ideal, and was his worst mark in the past five seasons. Could that have led to the jump in his HR/9? Perhaps.
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There are some other factors I think parlayed into the increased HR/9. First and foremost, the opposition made more contact than in 2018, so that gave them more opportunities. Hard hitting analysis right there, I know, but it’s true. One thing I really think factored in here was that his fastball wasn’t quite as effective in 2019, outside of generating more swinging strikes.
YEAR | GB% | FB% | HR/FB% | Zone% |
2016 | 45.7% | 23.3% | 24.5% | 55.6% |
2017 | 44.8% | 29.2% | 17.9% | 57.8% |
2018 | 44.4% | 27.1% | 11.1% | 58.1% |
2019 | 42.0% | 35.8% | 24.1% | 52.6% |
Courtesy of FanGraphs
The counting stats against his fastball weren’t as bad as you might expect, but his fastball usage is on a steady downward trend, and if opponents continue to loft it at that rate, and to the tune of a 15 degree launch and 89.8 AVERAGE exit velocity, it might become extinct.
Okay, one last thing on his fastball. Courtesy of Baseball Savant, we could see that his four seam fastball was usage was glove side, meaning he predominantly threw it on right-handers. This makes sense, considering he could tunnel it with a back foot slider, or freeze lefties with a fastball on the outer corner after making them look silly on two sliders.
Fortunately for Corbin, despite some of the negatives mentioned above, he has an elite weapon in his arsenal that is arguably the game’s best. He has one of the best sliders in baseball, and you can go on and on about how lethal it is.
Per FanGraphs’s pitch value, all Corbin’s slider did in 2019 was register a 27.0 mark that was the highest amongst qualified starters! His swinging strike rate of 27.6 percent with the pitch is exceptional and the second-best mark of his career. Furthermore, the 48.3 percent O-Swing rate with this pitch is gaudy! That number is astronomical! Of his 238 strikeouts last year, 157 came via the slider. In 2018, 194 of his 246 strikeouts came via the slider. This is truly an elite weapon, and one of the game’s most effective.
In drafts, Corbin comes off the board somewhere around the top 12-15 starters. His average draft position (ADP), courtesy of the NFBC, has him as the 12th starter by ADP. There are some flashier names around him, but Corbin has been rock solid the past two years. Sure, there was some statistical regression last year, but that’s to be expected after what was really a career year for Corbin. One could argue that he’s the safer play amongst some of the guys being drafted around him.
- Blake Snell : Are we getting Cy Young Blake or not?
- Clayton Kershaw : Will he stay healthy?
- Lucas Giolito : Was 2019 a flash in the pan? Is statistical regression in play? Can he get better than what he did last year?
Let me rephrase what I said above. Maybe “safer” isn’t the right word, because Corbin regressed a bit last year, was brilliant in 2018, but had an ERA above 4.00 in 2016 (5.15) and 2017 (4.03). Corbin still has a great offense behind him, so run support shouldn’t be an issue, and if Major League Baseball doesn’t change divisions, there are some strikeout prone offenses within the National League East.
Paying “at cost” for Corbin doesn’t seem like a wise investment, especially if he takes a half step back in 2020, but if he slips a bit in your draft, and you get him as the 15th or 16th starter off the board, there’s some room for him to provide a reasonable return on investment.
Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball
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