2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: David Peralta

There’s no denying that David Peralta had a phenomenal 2018 season. He swatted 30 home runs, drove in 87 runs and slashed .293/.352/.516 across 146 games. I wrote Peralta’s player profile in 2019, and I warned many that his gargantuan power spike in 2018 was unrepeatable. I ended the piece with the following words:

“Peralta provides a solid floor in terms of batting average, but he will be unable to replicate the power numbers from last season.”

Well, the batting average regressed a bit, too, but .275 is solid, and in 99 games, he hit just 12 home runs. That’s better than other years, but not quite on his pace for 2018. If he didn’t miss time with injuries, his home run total would have been right around 20. Last year, he hit a home run every 31.8 at-bats, which is closest to his 2015 season, when he went yard every 27.2 at-bats. That year, he hit 17 home runs in 149 games.

After enjoying a 23.4 percent HR/FB rate in 2018, that mark fell to 14.6 percent last year. Furthermore, with fewer fly balls and more ground balls, this mark never stood a chance, even before the regression monster enters the discussion. Also, for the fifth straight season, his ground ball rate was north of 50 percent.

One thing I enjoy looking at is what I call a “true” fly ball rate. He had a pop-up rate of 6.1 percent in 2019, which is the highest in the past five seasons, and in terms of getting under the ball, his 21.3 percent rate, per Baseball Savant, was the highest he’s had since 2016. The fly balls simply didn’t have the juice. Looking specifically at balls that were classified as “getting under it,” the results, as expected, were underwhelming.

I’m not a fan of Peralta’s barrel rate, as it dropped to 5.4 percent in 2019. Also, his average exit velocity dropped, and especially so on his fly balls and line drives in particular.

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

Furthermore, his batting average on fly balls plummeted in 2019, likely because the average exit velocity was down. Take a look for yourself:

Also, let’s talk strikeouts. The 2019 season featured the third-highest strikeout rate of his career, and he left the strike zone more frequently. Opposing pitchers attacked him differently than the prior season. Following his 2018 season, Peralta saw fastballs about 58 percent of the time, which was five percentage points below his 2018 mark, which lead to additional swings outside of the strike zone.

That strikeout rate will be above 20 percent this season. If his actual batting average in 2020 is closer to his expected batting average of last year, which was .249, it could be a long year for Peralta and those who spend a draft pick on him. Even when he hit .293 in 2018, his xBA was .279.

Peralta should be fully over the issue that bothered him last year, and he is a consistent fantasy option that fantasy owners can rely on. He can provide adequate pop, but I wouldn’t say he’s a reliable source of a premium batting average anymore. This year, he likely hits in the .260s, and he’ll have a middling home run rate. Could there be an opportunity for more RBI? Sure, especially with Starling Marte being added to the top of the lineup.

I wasn’t the biggest fan of Peralta last year, and while his ADP is severely depressed from recent years, he’s not a player I’ll be heavily invested in this season. He’s currently the 64^th outfielder off the board, coming after the likes of Alex Verdugo , Jo Adell , and Mark Canha . There’s a certainly a buying opportunity here, as he doesn’t have to do much to outproduce his draft spot.

As long as he stays healthy, hitting .265 with 12-15 home runs and 65 RBI is a solid return on investment for a guy being drafted outside the top 245 players. In those terms, as a bench bat, Peralta is a fine player if you let him slip in drafts. However, pushing him up isn’t a wise investment or decision.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
brooksbaseball.net