It took just 13 games at Triple-A in 2019 before Bryan Reynolds entrenched himself as a mainstay in the Pirates lineup. In those 13 games, he hit five home runs and stole three bases with a lofty .367 average and .446 on-base percentage. In 134 games with the Pirates, he slashed .314/.377/.503 with 16 home runs, 68 RBI, 83 runs scored and three stolen bases. He does a good job staying in the zone, for the most part, and while he isn’t exactly a Statcast freak, he’s on the positive end of most of the spectrums. Reynolds has shown the ability to hit for average throughout his time in the minors, and rode a .387 BABIP to that .314 average this past year. What do we make of Reynolds in 2020? Let’s dive in.
As I alluded to just a handful of sentences ago, Reynolds is on the positive side of things in terms of various Statcast metrics. See for yourself, courtesy of Baseball Savant:
Sure, he’s not a world beater in any of those categories, outside of xBA, but it’s positive nonetheless.
Reynolds is pretty quick, and his batted ball profile that leans on grounders does help him a bit, especially in terms of his batting average on batted balls in play (BABIP). His launch angle of 9.4 degrees is a bit underwhelming and he tends to struggle with lofting certain pitchers in particular. However, he does a good job of hitting line drives across the board.
Pitch Type | GB/BIP | LD/BIP | FB/BIP |
Fourseam | 41.10% | 28.08% | 26.71% |
Sinker | 56.67% | 28.33% | 15.00% |
Change | 53.23% | 22.58% | 19.35% |
Slider | 40.54% | 29.73% | 27.03% |
Curve | 55.17% | 31.03% | 13.79% |
Cutter | 55.17% | 24.14% | 13.79% |
Split | 42.86% | 57.14% | 0.00% |
Courtesy of Brooks Baseball
It’s not ideal, all things considered, but this is who he has been for his career. It’s not as if 2019 was the first year that he decided to hit numerous worm killers. Last year, his 46.4 percent ground ball rate was right on par with other of his seasons. However, to tap into that fantasy upside, what he did in those 13 games at Triple-A in 2019 would be pretty darn nice. That 45.9 percent fly ball rate is nice, and the 29.4 percent HR/FB rate helped the home run total for sure. Realistically, that’s not Reynolds, so his fantasy owners will have to be just fine with trading more home runs for more points on his batting average.
Reynolds’ .314 average was accentuated by his .334 mark against righties but dragged down by his .264 average against southpaws. The strikeout rate wasn’t too different (just one percentage point), but his batted ball profile was much stronger against the right-handed variety.
| LD% | GB% | FB% | Soft Contact % | Hard Contact % |
Vs. L | 18.3% | 49.5% | 32.1% | 18.4% | 37.6% |
Vs. R | 26.1% | 45.1% | 28.8% | 15.5% | 45.1% |
Courtesy of Baseball Savant
Interestingly enough, however, his average exit velocity was nearly a full percentage point higher against southpaws. Now, much less surprising was the elevated whiff rate and diminished launch angle against lefties.
| Launch Angle | Avg. Exit Velocity | Whiff % |
Vs. L | 6 | 90.1 | 30.4% |
Vs. R | 11 | 89.3 | 24.6% |
Courtesy of Baseball Savant
The likely shortened season hurts Reynolds a bit, in that he won’t have the time to accrue the home run total closer to 20 this year. He will provide fantasy owners with a quality batting average, a little pop, and if the Pirates offense can overachieve in any manner, that only stands to benefit him. Despite the significant splits, he’s still better against lefties than any other option a depleted Pirates squad has, so that should keep him locked in the team’s lineup on a daily basis.
Reynolds should serve as the team’s second hitter, considering he spent the majority of the time there last year, and I expect productive seasons out of the guys directly following him (looking at you, Gregory Polanco and Josh Bell ). Reynolds’ current average draft position (ADP) is 186.12 and he’s currently the 50th outfielder off the board. Sure, you only get a little bit of pop and a couple of stolen bases, but his excellence in the batting average department is a valuable asset for fantasy owners, especially if you counter his lower power numbers and higher average with his fantasy antithesis. These are big-time power guys with lower averages, namely Khris Davis , Joey Gallo , etc.
I love the value on Reynolds here in 2020. Don’t underestimate a good batting average.
Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp.baseball
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