2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Gleyber Torres

Despite not being a substantial power bat in the minors, a young middle infielder for the Bronx Bombers has certainly become one at the game’s highest level. Gleyber Torres hit 24 home runs in 123 games in 2018, and then last year, he decided he wanted to get closer to 40 home runs. In 144 games, Torres swatted 38 round trippers, driving in 90 runs and scoring 96 times himself. Furthermore, he slashed a respectable .278/.337/.535 and posted a 3.6 WAR. He offers plus power at the position, and hits for a respectable average, but is there room for more growth in 2020, or is what we got last year the peak? Let’s take a look.

His exit velocity and barrel rate enjoyed a small jump from the year before, but Torres is by no means a StatCast freak. His average exit velocity last year ranked in the 49^th percentile and his hard hit rate came in at the 33^rd percentile. In 2018, those numbers came in at the 52^nd and 47^th percentile respectively. Since the start of 2018, his HR/FB ratio is 19.9 percent, which is more so a product of a favorable hitter’s park, as well as Camden Yards (more on this coming soon). Playing half of his games in Yankee Stadium certainly helps, because you don’t need to hit balls a country mile to leave the yard.

One thing to note is that his ground ball rate did increase last year, but when you look at his numbers throughout his time in the minors, it’s closer to those marks. In 2018, he did a better job lofting non-fastballs, but those marks dropped in 2019. On breaking pitches alone, you can see the difference in the graphics below.

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

Sure, there’s more occurrences on the chart to the right (2019), but that comes with more at-bats. However, the amount of balls hit with a downward trajectory is noticeable compared to 2018.

Torres’ numbers also enjoyed a nice boost because when he was facing the Baltimore Orioles, he was godlike. I want to say it’s a hyperbole, but it’s not. In 18 games against baseball’s worst team, he hit .394 with 13 home runs (26 total hits). Nearly one-third of his home runs came against one team! That’s unheard of!

In writing these profiles, it’s nice when you get something that agrees so strongly. While it’s just a two year sample size, I found that serendipitous event when looking at Torres’ swing tendencies on pitches in the strike zone. Look at the two graphs below, courtesy of Baseball Savant, and the agreeance between the two is exceptional.

So, you’re telling me that last year, not only did Torres swing at more on each type of pitch within the strike zone, but he also swung and missed LESS! Before we proceed, let’s acknowledge the fact that that is quite exceptional. Because of this, he whiffed less, which in turn ate into his strikeout rate. This helped Torres cut his strikeout rate nearly four full percentage points.

Not only did he whiff less on these pitches, but he enjoyed a nice increase in slugging percentage against all pitches. The increases were rather sizable, as you can see below.

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

Yes, his home run total jumped, but when you look at the breakdown by percentage of home runs hit against different pitches, it’s more impressive than his numbers from 2018.

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

There’s a lot of variance in projections for Torres here for the 2020 season from the popular projection systems. Is he a 40+ home run guy? ZiPS thinks so, whereas Steamer and the BAT see him experiencing some regression across the board.

Projections by THE BAT (Derek Carty), ATC (Ariel Cohen),
Steamer, and ZiPS (Dan Szymborski)

One thing that hasn’t varied, however, is the fact that Torres is routinely drafted as the first second baseman in most fantasy formats, typically coming off the board anywhere from the late-second to early 4^th round. Torres is a key piece of a powerful lineup, with plenty of run scoring and run producing opportunities. Furthermore, his division is loaded with hitter friendly parks, or subpar pitching staffs.

Torres gives your team some nice power numbers and a reliable batting average, but there are intriguing plays around him. At a similar price, you can get more speed with Starling Marte , or more power with Pete Alonso , or more dual threat guys potentially in the next round with Ozzie Albies or Austin Meadows .

Torres is a heck of a young talent, but you may find yourself passing on him in the early rounds of your draft, solely because there are flashier options at a similar or reduced price.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball
Projections by THE BAT (Derek Carty)
Projections by ATC (Ariel Cohen)
Projections bySteamer
Projections by ZiPS (Dan Szymborski)