Andrew McCutchen ’s 2019 season was lost to a torn ACL, but before the injury, he hit .256 with 10 home runs and two stolen bases across 59 games. By no means was it exceptional, but it was rather par for the course in recent seasons. He’s no longer the MVP candidate he was in his statistical prime during his Pittsburgh days, but he’s plenty serviceable in your outfield, especially at his current draft price. He’s not going to be your first outfielder, or your last, but there’s value to be had with McCutchen in 2020, as long as you view him in a certain spotlight.
Prior to the ACL injury last year, McCutchen had cut down on the strikeouts, and his 16.4-percent walk rate would have easily been a career best. He’s always displayed elite discipline at the plate, but last year, he brought his O-Swing rate to 17.7-percent, the best mark of his career. Additionally, his O-Contact rate was a career best. However, there’s another trend worth noting regarding McCutchen. He’s swinging less and less. From 2011-2017, he swung at least 41-percent of the time. In 2018, it dropped to 39.8-percent, and last year, it was just 35.5-percent. Along with that, he swung at less pitches in the zone.
While the majority of his Statcast metrics are far from underwhelming, they are on par with his career marks for the most part. Now, his expected batting averages against non-fastballs are a bit concerning.
It’s dropping, and dropping considerably. It’s something worth noting….
Along with that, it’s time to talk launch angle. That’s another thing that isn’t particularly enticing for McCutchen in 2020. His barrel rate and exit velocity are staying relatively similar, which is positive, because he’s shown to be productive with these marks, but the launch angle is a different story.
Launch Angle | |
2016 | 16.1 |
2017 | 14.2 |
2018 | 13.4 |
2019 | 12.7 |
Courtesy of Baseball Savant
He fortunately plays in a good ballpark, so if the launch angle trend were to continue, he should enjoy a small bump in his HR/FB rate, giving him a good chance to exceed 20 home runs for the ninth time in his career. With the Phillies last season, he had a 16.7 percent HR/FB rate, which would have been the second best mark of his career, and the combination of that rate, with his GB/FB ratio is rather similar to his 2012 campaign. That year was quite an impressive year for Cutch……
Could he hit 30 home runs like he did that year? With some luck, sure. Is he stealing 20 bases? Hell no. Guaranteed. I love Cutch as much as the next guy, but he’s not stealing 20 bases. He’s swiped just three bags in his last 84 games played. Additionally, look at his games per stolen base attempt.
Year | Games Played | Total SB Attempts | Games per SB Attempt |
2012 | 157 | 32 | 4.91 |
2013 | 157 | 37 | 4.24 |
2014 | 146 | 21 | 6.95 |
2015 | 157 | 16 | 9.81 |
2016 | 153 | 14 | 10.92 |
2017 | 156 | 16 | 9.75 |
2018 | 155 | 23 | 6.74 |
2019 | 59 | 3 | 19.67 |
The 2018 is inflated, considering he ran a bunch with the Giants, but still, just 13 stolen bases in 130 games. However, it’s better than nothing. During his time with the Yankees, a notoriously slower team, and the Phillies, he hasn’t run much. Expecting anything more than maybe 10 stolen bases for a guy coming off an ACL injury with a downward trend of stolen base numbers beforehand is unrealistic.
No. McCutchen won’t repeat those magical 2012 numbers, but if he plays in 150 games this year, which he displayed a knack for prior to 2019, he’s a good bet for 20+ home runs, 90+ runs scored, a few stolen bases and a high on-base percentage.
Popular projection systems, including Steamer, The Bat and ATC, have McCutchen in the range of 22-26 home runs, with 80-ish runs scored, six to eight stolen bases and a .260-ish batting average. Honestly, that’s not bad, especially with where you can get him right now. Additionally, some of those numbers, notably the run total, are rather conservative. McCutchen and his high on-base mark will hit atop a Philadelphia lineup with guys like Bryce Harper , Rhys Hoskins , and J.T. Realmuto to drive him in. Call me crazy, but I truly believe it. With a return to good health, McCutchen could score 100 runs this season. He’s going after the top 200 players, providing a path to some quality ROI (return on investment).
Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
Steamer Projections
THE BAT Projections by Derek Carty
ATC Projections by Ariel Cohen
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