2020 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Max Muncy

Over the last two seasons, there are five players with at least 70 home runs, a .381 on-base percentage (OBP) and .388 wOBA. Two of the five are top-three picks. Three of those players are going in the first round, and four of the five are going within in the first two rounds of drafts, assuming we are conversing about 12-team formats. The other player is Los Angeles’ Max Muncy , who is going in the sixth or seventh rounds of most drafts. Here is the full list:

Muncy is coming off back-to-back years of 35 home runs, and last year, he parlayed 141 games into 101 runs scored, 98 RBI and a .251 batting average. He struck out less last year, and while some of his power peripherals (ISO, SLG) were down from the year before, his HR/FB went down and he traded some fly balls for ground balls, so that hurt a bit. Muncy already does a great job at avoiding soft contact, but his hard contact rate was slightly down from 2018.

Muncy is a heavy pull-hitter, and after a lengthier rap sheet on him, teams decided to shift on him far more. Per Baseball Savant, he experienced a shift 49.8 percent of the time, but in 2019, that mark jumped to 76 percent. Additionally, his wOBA against the shift dropped to .352, indicating that teams likely shift against him with great frequency again in 2020.

As mentioned earlier, some of Muncy’s power peripherals were down from the year before. Let’s bring some numbers to the forefront:

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

Overall, the drop in launch angle and HR/FB ratio didn’t hurt his overall power numbers. As mentioned before, he still hit 35 home runs, and his AB/HR metric was only 2.6 at-bats higher from the year before. While most of his power production did come against righties, he actually hits southpaws quite well, and hopefully that helps him avoid any potential platoon situations with the ample talent residing in the Dodgers’ batting cage.

Now, his batting average dropped to .251 last year, which was about 12 points lower than the year before. Many projections for the year have his batting average dropping again in 2020; however, personally, I’m not buying it. While hitting just .251 from the year before, his xBA came in at .269, signifying he should have hit for a better average. When you look at Muncy’s numbers against different pitches in prior seasons, most of the time, the actual batting average lines up with the expected batting average (xBA), but that wasn’t the case against offspeed (non-breaking or fastball) pitches.

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

So, what do we take from the chart above? Let me tell you.

• Opposing pitchers pitched him different, attacking him with fewer fastballs and more secondary stuff. Overall, he handled it well, whiffing less overall against these pitches, and improving on his expected batting average against the respective offerings.
• Look at the disparity between his actual batting average and expected batting average against offspeed stuff in 2019. That’s huge! While his batting average against fastballs declined a bit, his overall expected batting average didn’t waver too much. If his batting average was anywhere near his expected batting average, we are talking about at least a 10-15 percent jump in his batting average for the year.
• I didn’t include it above, but it’s worth noting that his average exit velocity against offspeed and breaking pitches was slightly up from the year before.

Muncy will likely play a good bit of first base this year, as the Dodgers likely allow Cody Bellinger to play outfield the majority of the time, and Gavin Lux to be in the lineup at second base. Muncy is going to hit somewhere in the top five or six of a potent Dodgers lineup headlined by the likes of Bellinger, Corey Seager and recently acquired Mookie Betts . Say Muncy hits second, which is likely in between Betts and Justin Turner , and then followed up by Bellinger. Even if he hits sixth, those guys ahead of him are all going to be on-base a lot, giving him plenty of opportunities to pad the RBI numbers. Muncy is in a great spot this season and he also offers positional flexibility for fantasy owners when settings lineups on a daily or weekly basis.

So, what do we think for Muncy this year? I’m on the Muncy bandwagon, first and foremost, so I think he hits 32 home runs with a .255 batting average, .380 OBP, 90 runs scored and 95 RBI. With those five numbers in mind, here are the guys projected to do such a thing, as well as their NFBC ADP (as of Feb. 16).

Projections courtesy of steamerprojections.com

There is a unique buying opportunity on Muncy here. Maybe there is the potential of a few more off days with all of the weapons the Dodgers have at their disposal, but he can play multiple positions and move around in the event of an injury. He gets to hit in the top five or six of one of the most potent offenses in baseball, and his plate discipline keeps his walk rate and OBP high. He hardly runs, but he should provide excellent value at his current ADP.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball
steamerprojections.com