To open the 2018 campaign, second-year tight end David Njoku hauled in seven passes on 14 targets for a whopping 33 yards in the first two games of the season. Then, in Week 3, the Cleveland Browns franchise changed forever. Baker Mayfield took over and Njoku immediately became much more fantasy viable after two rough weeks to open the season, despite receiving adequate volume. With Mayfield under center, Njoku became a viable fantasy force, providing fantasy owners with a steady stream of production. Unfortunately, Njoku only had one game with over 70 receiving yards, but he only had three games with under 30 receiving yards. Njoku averaged 12.4 yards per reception with Mayfield under center, and eight of their 14 games together resulted in Njoku eclipsing at least 50 yards receiving.

Njoku averaged 39.9 yards per game last year as a whole, but when you remove the two non-Mayfield games, that number jumps to 43.3 yards per game. Again, if we remove his goose egg against Pittsburgh in Week 8, that number jumps to 46.6 yards per game. Over the course of a full season, 46.6 yards per game comes out to 745.8 receiving yards. While being a young talent, Njoku may not have the immense upside other youngsters do at this position, considering that he was more of a consistent option than a breakout option for the Browns last season. He caught at least three passes in all but three games with Mayfield last season, yet the re-tooling of Mayfield’s weaponry makes some cause for concern for Njoku’s fantasy outlook in 2019.

Jarvis Landry led the team with 149 targets last season, and Njoku came in second with 88 targets. From there, the next highest totals were Antonio Callaway (79), Duke Johnson (62), Rashard Higgins (53), Nick Chubb (29) and Breshad Perriman (25). This offseason, the team signed suspended running back Kareem Hunt , who has 79 receptions and 10 receiving touchdowns in 27 career games, and traded for uber-talented wideout Odell Beckham Jr. The former will be a factor if and when he returns later in the season, while the latter will easily surpass 100 targets and likely lead the team in this category.

So, let’s recap here. A few targets from last year won’t play in 2019, but Beckham Jr. is going to command 100+ targets, so where are they going to come from exactly? Under Mayfield last season, the Browns threw the ball 61 percent of the time, per Sharp Football Stats. Furthermore, if we look at Mayfield’s target distribution last season, we see the following:

RB

TE

WR

20%

20%

60%

Courtesy of Pro Football Focus

However, there are numerous reasons to believe that these numbers could change a bit this season, especially with the addition of Beckham and nearly half a season of Kareem Hunt . Furthermore, Chubb should develop a bit more as a pass-catcher, and Duke Johnson , as long as he’s in the mix, is an above-average asset in the passing game. Let’s say the numbers switch to the following this season:

RB

TE

WR

21%

16%

63%


If the numbers look comparable to that, it means that the tight end position in Cleveland will get 93.4 targets this season, and less-talented backups Seth DeValve and Demetrius Harris will see a few of those, meaning Njoku’s target total may actually end up in the mid-to-upper 70’s, which would be a downgrade from last season. No one is expecting Njoku to compete as a top three or four player at the position, but this would be a pretty sizable downgrade from this past year. However, the added attention on the stars outside the hash marks could open up things in the middle of the field for Njoku, and his red zone potential may actually be slightly increased this year. Last year, he was the second guy that defenses were concerned about, and this year, he will drop to third, behind Beckham and Landry.

Njoku was tied for the second-highest target share inside the 20 and the 10 last season, despite being uber-effective in this part of the field. He only saw eight targets inside the red zone last season, but four of the five balls he caught there found the end zone. Conversely, Landry caught ten balls in this part of the field, but only two went four touchdowns. Beckham figures to be a big factor in this part of the field, but Njoku will still get his looks, and if he can be effective, he could see a slight bump in his touchdown total this season.

In a half-point scoring league, Njoku is projected to finish the year as the ninth-highest scoring tight end on the season, coming in with 54 grabs on 85 targets for 656 yards and 5.3 touchdowns. The reception and target numbers could dip slightly, depending just how quickly the rapport between Mayfield and Beckham grows, but if Njoku is going to beat any of the aforementioned numbers, touchdowns seem likely. Mayfield is a young gunslinger and if he breaks out in his first full season like many think, he could find the end zone seven or eight times this year, en route to another top 10 finish at the position.

Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
pro-football-reference.com
sharpfootballstats.com