Kenny Golladay enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2018. He caught 70 passes on 119 targets for 1,063 yards and five touchdowns in his sophomore season with the Detroit Lions. He eclipsed 100 yards three different times in 2018, and he had 75 or more receiving yards in nearly half of the games he played last season. However, in almost one-quarter of the games, he was held to under 51 yards.

Golladay was one of the top 20 wide receivers in the National Football League in terms of targets, but he could have been more productive in terms of fantasy production if his reception percentage would be higher. He only had three drops, and Matthew Stafford may have given him tough balls at time, but the first indicator of potential increased production starts with besting last year’s 60.9 reception percentage. Put this into perspective:

Per Pro Football Focus, there were 25 wide receivers that received at least 100 targets in 2018. Only Corey Davis (60.2%) and Jarvis Landry (59.1%) had a lower reception percentage than Golladay (60.9%). Yikes.

After receiving just 8.4 percent of the target share in the 2017 season, that mark jumped to a team-high 20.4 percent in 2018, per Lineups.com. It’s a similar supporting cast returning in 2019, minus Golden Tate , with Golladay and Marvin Jones serving as the top two receivers, and then Kerryon Johnson and rookie T.J. Hockenson factoring into the mix. Theo Riddick will certainly be involved (14.1 percent target share in 2018), as long as he isn’t cut or traded.  In his final five games of the season, with no Jones on the field, he topped 20 percent of the team’s targets four times.

 

Target Percentages (by game)

With Jones

23, 17, 19, 13, 35, 9, 2, 11, 31

Without Jones

38, 21, 24, 17, 28, 35


Moving away from percentages, here are the total number of targets (per PFF) for Golladay and Jones when they were on the field together (nine games).

Player

Targets

Receptions

Yards

TDs

Golladay

59

39

601

4

Jones

59

35

508

5


Yes, Jones has injury concerns, but one could argue that potential fantasy production for these two may not be far off. Per our projections on Fantasy Alarm, Golladay is projected for just 11.6 more fantasy points in a standard format this season. Interestingly enough, however, Jones is going 58 picks later than Golladay, per NFFC average draft position (ADP) data.

Now, both Golladay and Jones are in line for additional targets with Golden Tate gone, because Tate averaged 8.9 targets per game during his time in Detroit last season. However, that may not be as important as many may think if a disturbing fantasy trend continues in Detroit. From 2015-2017, the number of pass attempts in Detroit decreased each season. In 2018, the increasing in passing attempts was a measly four additional passes.

YEAR

PASSING ATTEMPTS

RUSHING ATTEMPTS

2018

574

404

2017

570

363

2016

594

350

2015

632

354


The arrow is trending down and the coaching staff in Detroit has come out and blatantly stated that they want to be a running team. This explains the arrow pointing down for passing attempts, and up for rushing attempts. This is a cause of concern for Golladay, but even with some of the efficiency issues last year, some of the peripheral metrics were comparable to some of the top wide receivers in the game (0.5 PPR format).

 

Fantasy Points per Snap

Fantasy Points per Touch

Fantasy Points per Game

Player A (DHOP)

0.26

2.41

17.5

Player B (Cooks)

0.21

2.26

12.7

Player C (Golladay)

0.19

2.42

11.5

Player D (Cooper)

0.22

2.36

12.1

Courtesy of Pro Football Focus

Sure, Player A stands out above the rest, but on a per snap and per touch basis, Players B-D are rather similar. Let’s factor in the ADPs of these players now.

Player

ADP

Player A

6.55

Player B

40.98

Player C

42.93

Player D

31.94

Courtesy of NFFC

Here are the players:

With some more efficiency, Golladay has proven to be as good as receivers being drafted ahead of him, at least on a per snap and touch basis. However, there is where the problem lies. Does the departure of Tate and potential departure of Riddick result in a significantly increased target total for Golladay, when factoring in a potential full season from Jones and likely fewer passing attempts from Stafford? That’s a risky proposition.

Fantasy Alarm projections (0.5 PPR) have Golladay ending the year as the WR34, totaling 55 grabs on 97 targets for 849 yards and 3.9 TD. While he has a good chance to best the numbers below, the key will be if Golladay can be more of a factor in the red zone for the Lions. Last season, he received just 15 targets inside the 20-yard line. To take the next step in fantasy, Golladay needs to put his large frame to use, and push that touchdown total closer to eight. If he can get to around last year’s reception total with 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns, it’s a solid season for the third-year wideout.

However, one could make the case that he’s not even the best value at the position on his own team.

Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
lineups.com
pro-football-reference.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/football