2019 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: David Peralta

David Peralta had a career year in 2018 in the middle of the Arizona Diamondbacks order, as he swatted 30 home runs, drove in 87 runs, scored 75 times and slashed .293/.352/.516 across 146 games. Coming into the season, Peralta was a valuable fantasy asset that could be had a solid price and would give you adequate pop while helping stabilize your squad’s batting average. However, in 2018, largely due to the gargantuan power spike, Peralta was likely on many championship teams, given his production at his price. He won’t sneak up on anyone this season, as his price is reflective of what he did last season. Like most players in baseball, Peralta isn’t prone from regression, and his overall stat line this season will showcase that fact. It’s not that Peralta won’t be a valuable fantasy asset, but there are hitters around his average draft position (ADP) with higher upside. At the right price, Peralta will be a value added to your fantasy team, but one must account for the regression he will experience in 2019.

While we cannot take away from what Peralta did last season, it’s hard to fathom him replicating those numbers from last year, aside from the batting average. Peralta has proven to have a reliable floor in terms of batting average, seeing as he’s hit at least .286 in all but one season at the big league level, and the only year (2016) he didn’t reach that mark, he only appeared in 48 games. His BABIP of .328 last season was actually below his career average, but still very solid. If I’m banking on one statistic for Peralta to replicate in 2019 from his magical 2018 season, it’s certainly a batting average north of .290.

However, Peralta’s batted profile underwent a rather massive change last season, particularly in terms of his spray chart, hard contact, exit velocity and launch angle. See for yourself below:

In short, numbers aside, he pulled the ball more often, using left field less frequently, and holy hard contact! That’s an absolutely massive, and unsustainable, hard contact rate.  The increased exit velocity further affirms the increased hard contact rate, but a nearly 17-percent jump from the previous season? I don’t think so. That screams regression to the mean, but one can give Peralta credit, because if that exit velocity stays high, and he can continue to barrel up the baseball, his hard rate of contact should remain north of his career average of 37.1-percent.

Everything mentioned above is a reason as to why Peralta’s biggest regression from 2018 will be the power numbers. He hit 30 home runs last season after never hitting more than 17 in a season. His best AB/HR mark was 27.2 back in 2015, but last year, it was at 18.7. His career average is 28.0. Give Peralta 600 at-bats per season, and that alone puts him at a 21.4 home run total, so basically a total in the low-20s. According to xStats, Peralta’s home run total has been fairly close to his xHR total, but 2018 was the first time the two weren’t quite in sync, per xStats.

Last year’s power output was clearly an outlier, and numerous metrics indicate that. Well, here’s another one: Peralta’s 23.4 HR/FB rate was nearly six points higher than any other season, and nearly double his career mark heading into last season. See how his home run total would have different, had that HR/FB mark not been as outlier-ish as it was.

Peralta had an incredible 2018 season, but the power numbers are coming down in 2019. He will not repeat that home run total, and without Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock in that lineup, expect opposing pitchers to maybe even go at Peralta less. Regardless, his counting stats, notably runs scored and runs batted in will decrease, because the Arizona lineup isn’t as potent as it has been in recent years.

Peralta provides a solid floor in terms of batting average, but he will be unable to replicate the power numbers from last season.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
xstats.org
baseballsavant.mlb.com