Fantasy owners who used a first-round pick in 2018 on José Altuve certainly didn’t receive the return on investment that they were seeking. After two straight seasons of hitting at least 24 home runs with 30 or more stolen bases and batting average north of .335, Altuve’s numbers dropped across the board in 2018. An unfortunate knee injury gobbled up some of the time, and it was the first time since 2011 that Altuve failed to appear in more than 140 games. While the knee injury ultimately did him in, the writing was on the wall for a less-than-desirable fantasy season before the injury even occurred.

While he did make harder contact in 2018 than recent seasons, and his exit velocity was improved upon from 2017, his barrel rate dropped to below six-percent for the first time since 2015. His batting average prior to the knee injury would have been a more than respectable mark, but after missing time with the knee injury, he came back and hit under .280.

In terms of his diminished power production, even in his first half, which was decent, the anticipated power numbers over the course of the full season would have been lower than the mid-20s total he posted in years prior. See for yourself below:

YEAR

AB/HR

ISO

SB% (ATTEMPTS)

GAMES PER SB ATTEMPT

2015

42.5

.146

75% (51)

3.02

2016

26.7

.194

75% (40)

4.03

2017

24.6

.202

84% (38)

4.03

2018

41.1

.135

81%(21)

6.52


Those marks in 2018 really stand out, both in terms of his reductions in the power and speed departments. When you further dive into his numbers in 2018, the reduction is even more stark, perhaps even worrisome to say the least.

2018 SPLIT

AB/HR

ISO

SB% (ATTEMPTS)

GAMES PER SB ATTEMPT

First 99 Games

43.2

.139

88% (16)

6.19

Last 38 Games

36.3

.124

60% (5)

7.60


Despite the fact that he continues to be successful when he does run, the knee injury cut down his number of attempts when he returned from injury. However, even before the injury, he wasn’t running nearly as much as he did in years prior. Altuve is still only 28-years old, so he’s in the theoretical prime of his career, but he doesn’t appear to be the “knock-it-out-of-the-park” first-round pick he was a few years back. In other words, his upside isn’t as high as it was in years past, and there’s legitimate concern that he won’t run as often as he did in prior years.

Houston could view last year’s knee injury as an outlier and let him get back to being a 40 stolen base guy. However, they could also read the writing on the wall and despite being just 28 years young, there’s a lot of innings on that five-foot-six-inch frame of the team’s second baseman. His value to the team is being out on the field holding down the second base position, and hitting over .300 with around 20 home runs. The stolen bases from Altuve aren’t a necessity, but he has a steady floor of around 20, even though he only logged slightly over 20 attempts last season.

Altuve will still likely require first round capital, especially in 15-team formats, but other than that, Altuve is much better suited as a second-round fantasy selection. There should be more optimism in the home run total rebounding to 20 or more, compared to the stolen base number surpassing 30 in 2019. While he’s still an elite option at his position, he’s not the fantasy asset he once was.

The gap has shrunk among second baseman in the fantasy game, and while Altuve is still the premier option, he’s no longer the clear-cut top option.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com