2019 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Scooter Gennett

During his four year career in Milwaukee, a notably friendly hitter park, Scooter Gennett had 35 career home runs. In his first year with Cincinnati, he parlayed the increased power in 2016 to a career high 27 round-trippers. The power outbreak was real, and even with some regression in 2018, Gennett lost some power, but managed to hit .310 in 154 games last season. The batting average increase  was welcomed by his fantasy owners, and while his BABIP jumped to .358, well above his career norm, he’s established a solid floor during his two-year stint in Cincinnati. There is some batting average risk and the power production this season might not be quite as elevated as one may think, but Gennett is a valuable buy at a position that lacks multiple elite fantasy options.

It’s been an excellent two year run for Gennett in the state of Ohio, as he’s proven to be a new hitter and ranks amongst the top at his position in numerous categories. Take a look for yourself below:

Rather quietly, and underappreciated, Gennett has been a quality option in the middle infield for fantasy owners. Despite being fairly priced this season, Gennett is coming off a season in which he was the only second baseman in the league to hit least 20 home runs with a batting average above .300 last season. Only two second basemen (Gennett, Javier Báez ) hit at least 20 home runs with a batting average at .290 or above.

As mentioned earlier on, the power numbers experienced some regression in 2018, but that could have been expected, seeing as Gennett really outdid himself in his first season in Cincy. His AB/HR mark came back to a mark closer to his career average, and the reduction down to 25.4 AB/HR is a fair mark moving forward for Gennett. He could improve that slightly this season, but he won’t be anywhere near the 17.1 AB/HR he totaled back in 2017. However, any jump in his HR/FB ratio could help push his home run total back above 25 in 2019. Much like his AB/HR metric, he won’t be 20.8-percent guy like he was in 2017, but even though the career numbers don’t suggest it, his increased hard contact, exit velocity and launch angle last season suggest that he could post a HR/FB ratio of about 15.5-percent. Now, let’s crunch some numbers.

Let’s say Gennett gets 590 at-bats this season and strikes out 21-percent of the time, which would be a slight increase from last season, he would have 466 at-bats ending with a ball put in play. Over the last two seasons his fly ball rate has hovered right around 37-percent, give or take a few. With that math, Gennett would have 172 fly balls this season, which would be a career best. If that’s the case, take a look at where his home run total would end based on his HR/FB ratio.

Sure, this isn’t he most sound logic, as it takes numerous things for granted, including the number of games he will play, sustainability in his fly ball rate and assuming he isn’t traded midseason for any reason. However, it does provide a range of outcomes for the slugger if he can stay healthy and avoid any serious regression across the board.

He won’t be a .300 hitter with 30 home runs in 2019, but there is only a handful of second basemen projected to hit at least 15 home runs with a .280 batting average or better, and Gennett can be had rounds after the others. (Projections courtesy of THE BAT, by Derek Carty)

Gennett provides an advantageous buying opportunity in the sixth round or later in most drafts, as he is one of the few players at his position than can be a prime contributor in four categories without requiring premium draft capital.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com