The last time we saw A.J. Pollock healthy for a full season (2015), we saw one hell of a season from the then Arizona outfielder. In that magical 2015 season, Pollock hit .315 with 20 home runs, 76 RBI, 111 runs scored and 39 stolen bases, not to mention a solid OPS of .865. He was a popular sleeper pick that season, but since then, misfortunate injuries have cost him the past three seasons. He played just 12 games in 2016, and 112 and 113 games in 2017 and 2018 respectively. If it weren’t for the injuries, he was en route to productive fantasy seasons, especially last season, where he had 21 home runs in just 113 games. If only he could have stayed healthy...

However, that is the growing knack on Pollock and what makes him such a risky selection, especially with his ADP placing him somewhere between the sixth and eight rounds of 15-team formats. I guess the fortunate thing for fantasy owners is that labeling this guy as injury prone might be a bit far fetched, considering that isn’t nagging soft tissue injuries or minor ailments that sideline him frequently throughout the season. In fact, he’s dealt with some rather major injuries that have sidelined him for weeks at a time over the past few seasons.

YEAR

INJURY

DAYS ON DL

2016

Fractured Right Elbow

146

2017

Right Groin Strain

50

2018

Left Thumb Avulsion Fracture

48


These are all rather freak occurrences, especially the 2016 and 2018 injuries, where if you remember, the fractured elbow happened on a slide into home plate and the thumb fracture was on a diving attempt in the outfield. The groin strain, so be it, but since 2015, there hasn’t been multiple occurrences of a nagging injury, so labeling the guy as injury prone might be a bit lackadaisical in your approach.

Some of Pollock’s peripherals from his excellent 2015 and shortened 2018 seasons are rather similar, providing an even higher level of upside in terms of power output. The stolen base upside won’t quite be there, as he won’t get anywhere near the 39 he posted back in 2015, but a total between 20-25 would more than suffice his fantasy owners. However, if the hard hit rate continues and the fly balls are a plenty, Pollock could hit more than 25 home runs this season, health willing of course.

YEAR

Barrel %

Exit Velocity

Launch Angle

Hard %

FB%

HR/FB

AB/HR

2015

5.9%

88.5

8.4

34.4%

29.0%

13.2%

30.5

2016

9.1%

88.2

15.8

27.3%

48.5%

12.5%

20.5

2017

5.6%

87.8

8.3

35.0%

32.1%

12.4%

30.4

2018

10.0%

89.0

13.2

44.5%

38.4%

17.1%

19.7


In fact, those numbers were actually exceptionally better than his best power season prior to last year. It was a bit of an outlier to say the least, but some regression in terms of hard contact and fly balls still equate to a 20+ home run season for Pollock in 2019. Furthermore, Los Angeles’ home park isn’t bad for power numbers, and there are some favorable hitter parks in his own division. There is some concern for regression to the mean in 2019, but Pollock is a talented player and if you take the average of his 2015, 2017 and 2018 seasons, those marks still lend themselves to a 20 home run season.

While the health and durability concerns are at the forefront of my reasons for pause with Pollock, another is the increasing strikeout rate paired with the decreased walk rate. His strikeout rate eclipsed 20 percent for the first time in his career, and his walk rate of 6.7 percent last season was the second-lowest of his career. His increased strikeout rate is evident by his career-high 33.6 O-Swing%. Furthermore, his chase rate increased against all types of pitches.

At his ADP, Pollock carries plenty of upside, as he could crack the top 15 or 20 hitters in the fantasy landscape, despite being drafted outside of the top 110 or so players overall. In case it hasn’t been stressed enough, drafting Pollock carries immense risk. He’s played more than 135 games just twice (2013, 2015) in his entire career, and has been limited to 112 and 113 games over the past two seasons.

With his new team, he could hit .280 and be a member of the 25/25 club if things pan out correctly. However, if he lands on the injured list, suppress those numbers a bit. Assuming at least one trip to the shelf, Pollock can still hit 15 homers and steal 15 bases in about 115 games near the top of the Los Angeles lineup.

Pollock carries massive fantasy upside at his ADP, but the injury history makes him one of the riskiest players this season.

Statistical Credits
Fangraphs.com
BrooksBaseball.net
thebaseballcube.com
baseballsavant.mlb