We had been trekking along just fine, but it was a patient trek. That is, until my Week 4 CFB predictions! We went 6-2 last weekend including a plus-money winner! 

Not only are we now at a solid 22-15 on the season, but Week 4 profited us over 3 units, effectively doubling what we entered the week with! And I don't plan on letting up any time soon. 

 

 

 

It might be hard to replicate a week in which we earn nearly 4 units in profit, but that’s exactly what I’m striving for in my Week 5 CFB best bets.

CFB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets: Saturday, 9/28

As usual, this CFB predictions article will have an emphasis on the Saturday games taking place on September 28th. It truly is a loaded slate with some phenomenal matchups, and I can’t wait for it to all get underway.

Now that that’s out of the way, explore my BYU vs. Baylor prediction, Louisville vs. Notre Dame prediction, Ohio State vs. Michigan State prediction and more below. Let’s stay in the green as we have all season long with these latest CFB best bets!

  • Season Record: 22-15
  • Units W/L: +6.9 Units

*All CFB picks to be placed at 1 Unit unless otherwise specified. Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @stevenw_hall!

 

 

 

BYU vs. Baylor Prediction: Saturday, September 28th

In what was maybe the most underrated win of all of last weekend, the BYU Cougars put a beatdown on a really good Kansas State Wildcats team. That marked the Cougars 4th win in a row to start this 2024 campaign undefeated, but things don’t get any easier anytime soon.

A tough Baylor Bears squad awaits, and after last week’s heartbreaking loss to Colorado, you know they’ll be out for blood. But will they be able to contain BYU QB Jake Retzlaff? He’s played really well up to this point, tossing for nearly 250 yards per game to the tune of a 3:1 TD:Int ratio.

The Bears just let Shedeur Sanders and company dice them up through the air, so I’m not quite confident in this Baylor pass defense. BU also has wins over just Tarleton State and a bad Air Force club, having lost their only two games against quality competition. Meanwhile, the Cougars have beaten both SMU and KSU, two solid counterparts. 

At the end of the day, I believe this BYU team is simply better overall than Baylor, even if they don’t necessarily match up the greatest. They could very well walk out with a victory, but I’ll gladly take the field goal cushion in my Week 5 CFB best bets. After all, the Cougars have covered the spread in all 4 games this season.

 

 

 

Louisville vs. Notre Dame: Saturday, September 28th

Shifting away from spread wagers for my next portion of CFB best bets for Week 5, I’m focused on the game total between Louisville vs. Notre Dame. And I’ll actually be going a bit against the grain. The fact of the matter is this: this Louisville offense can flat out score. 

They had their “worst” outing of the season last week in a 31-point win against an okay Georgia Tech squad and are now 12th in the country at 47.3 points scored per game. As for the Fighting Irish, they look to have righted the ship following their debacle against Northern Illinois, putting up totals of 66 and 28 in the 2 games since. 

Now, I know what you may be thinking. “But both of these defenses are putting up impressive numbers.” And that’s true. But I also don’t think they’ve faced offenses quite as good as one another up to this point. 

Louisville QB Tyler Shough has yet to even throw an interception this season, while ND running back Jeremiyah Love has combined with QB Riley Leaonard to produce 661 yards and 10 touchdowns already on over 7 yards per carry.  I expect the Fighting Irish to lean heavily on that ground game and move the ball efficiently, while the Cardinals have smooth and sustained drives throughout the contest. 

I mean, if NIU can score 16 against Notre Dame, Louisville should be able to match that at a minimum. I’ll say the same thing about ND’s chances against a UL defense that let up 19 to Georgia Tech. And with a total as low as this, you don’t need much more scoring than that.

 

 

 

Ohio State vs. Michigan State Prediction: Saturday, September 28th

Over to East Lansing we go to cap off our Week 5 CFB best bets where the Michigan State Spartans welcome in the Ohio State Buckeyes. Last week, my favorite bet of the whole slate was the over on Marshall vs. OSU, and it cashed easily. I have the same train of thought this week as the Buckeyes’ game total just keeps getting lower and lower for some reason. 

We know about the explosiveness of this offense, and it appears the books believe facing a tougher opponent in MSU will slow them down a bit. I just don’t see it that way. The Spartans have been much better on defense than offense this season, but this is still a team that just let Treshaun Ward of BC run wild against them in Week 4 (12-102-1). 

With all due respect to Ward, he’s no TreVeyon Henderson or Quinshon Judkins. It’s also worth noting that Michigan State allowed over 250 yards passing to Billy Edwards Jr. in their first conference game, and again, that Maryland passing attack is nowhere close to what this Buckeye one is. 

This may or may not be OSU’s toughest test from an offensive standpoint, but it definitely is MSU’s from a defense perspective. These meetings also haven’t been very kind to Sparty in recent memory, with Ohio State scoring 38+ points in 5 of the last 7 matchups. 

On top of that, the last 2 times this game has been played at Spartan Stadium, the Buckeyes have put up totals of 49 and 52 points. The actual wager will be on only the OSU’s team total, as the game total worries me on the Michigan State side of things. To put it simply, I don’t trust Aidan Chiles to not turn it over multiple times.

 

 

 

Best CFB Prop Bets & Other Picks - Saturday, 9/28