Welcome back to our CFB picks and college football best bets for Saturday's Week 8 CFB schedule. We'll try to bounce back from going 0-2 with last week's picks, though we did have some winners on the Bettor Sports Betting show. Don't miss that on Thursday to get some free CFB picks this week. As for the games in this article, we'll first break down Air Force vs Navy predictions and then discuss UCLA vs Stanford. Enjoy these CFB picks and college football predictions as you tune into the Week 8 games. Plus, keep an eye out for the CFB DFS Playbook for top Week 8 college football daily fantasy picks. Let's now get to the college football best bets and CFB betting picks for Saturday, October 21st.

If you want some free CFB picks, check out Thursday's Bettor Sports Betting show for more picks! 

 

College Football Week 8 Best Bets 

Air Force at Navy

Saturday, 12 pm ET 

Let's start with the first leg of the Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy series as Navy hosts Air Force on Saturday. These service academy matchups are always intriguing, no matter how good or bad each team might be in a given year. This season, Air Force is the clear better squad with an undefeated record and a spot in the AP Top 25 ranking for the first time since 2019. The Falcons have been a force in the Mountain West, outscoring their past four opponents by an average of 22.3 PPG. Meanwhile, Navy is 3-3 and one of the mid-tier teams in the AAC. When it comes to a rivalry matchup like this one, though, we can throw out the records and rankings. 

First off, let’s look at the recent history of this rivalry. Air Force has won the past three meetings against Navy with a 33-22 head-to-head advantage over the 55 career matchups. The Midshipmen will be hungry to pull the upset here and break the Falcons’ mini-winning streak in the series. Last year’s matchup, by the way, was a 13-10 win for Air Force in a game decided by a field goal with four minutes left. The Midshipmen will be looking to avenge that tight loss, though they did cover as 14-point underdogs. 

We’ve also seen the home teams have a notable advantage in this rivalry lately. The home team is 9-1 straight-up in the last 10 Air Force vs Navy games. That makes sense when you consider these squads are based on opposite sides of the country – Air Force in Colorado and Navy in Maryland. This year’s matchup will be in Annapolis, Maryland and it’s an instant home boost for the Midshipmen. 

On that note, the weather in Annapolis could play a part in this game. The weather forecast is calling for a chance of rain showers with 10-20 mph winds. That only adds to the usual tendency of the lower-scoring battles we see between service academies. A lower-scoring game also naturally favors Navy as the home underdog. The total is at 34.5, by the way.

As for the game itself, we know we’re getting a ton of running plays with both offenses featuring the triple-option. Fewer possessions with the running clock will make it tough for Air Force to stretch a big lead. Then there are the quarterback injuries to know about. Air Force starting QB Zac Larrier suffered a knee injury suffered last week and is “likely out for a while,” according to head coach Troy Calhoun. So it’s backup Jensen Jones under center and he has little game experience over his four years at Air Force. 

On the other side, Navy starting QB Tai Lavatai is day-to-day with a rib injury. In his absence last week, freshman Braxton Woodson actually filled in nicely in the 14-0 win over Charlotte. The dropoff to Navy’s backup isn’t as big as Air Force trying to replace Larrier, who’s been of the program’s better QBs in a while. It looks like Lavatai may still play this week, though – which gives Navy the slight QB advantage despite both teams going run-heavy. 

PICK: Navy +10.5 (-110 on DraftKings)

UCLA at Stanford

Saturday, 10:30 pm ET

UCLA is coming off a disappointing loss to Oregon State last week, but this is a nice bounce-back spot against a much easier opponent. The Bruins have faced three ranked teams in a row with Utah, Washington State, and Oregon State all testing them over the past month. Stanford, meanwhile, is among the bottom-feeders of the Pac-12 conference this season. This is a notable step down in competition for a UCLA team that should win comfortably. 

Stanford just pulled off an improbable comeback win over Colorado last Friday night. We have to give credit where it’s due as the Cardinal overcame a 29-0 halftime deficit and held on in double-overtime to get the road win over Deion Sanders’ squad. As impressive as it was, this could be a prime letdown for a Stanford team that’s still only 2-4 on the season and now rightfully a three-score underdog at home to UCLA this weekend. Plus, that come-from-behind win last week might say more about Colorado’s terrible defense and poor team discipline than it does about Stanford’s abilities. 

If Stanford gets down big like that against UCLA, it will have a much tougher time coming back to even make it close. The Bruins boast one of the best defenses in college football, allowing only 16.2 PPG this year (14th-best in FBS). Their run defense is especially strong with only 76 rushing yards allowed per game (5th-best in FBS). Stopping the run in this matchup will put more pressure on inexperienced QB Ashton Daniels and an inconsistent passing attack. 

On the other side of the ball, UCLA freshman QB Dante Moore should have a much easier time against a bad Stanford pass defense. The Cardinal are allowing 321.5 passing yards per game this season, ranking 132nd of 133 FBS programs. Yikes! The secondary has also given up a 17:3 TD:INT ratio over six games. Moore has had some interception issues in his first collegiate season, but that was also against some much better defenses in Oregon State and Utah. 

This is a great rebound opportunity for UCLA to get back into the win column with a comfortable victory after suffering that tough loss last week. We actually saw a similar scenario last year when the Bruins lost to a ranked Oregon team and then faced Stanford the following game. The result was a 38-13 win for UCLA as it covered the 16.5-point spread. In fact, Chip Kelly’s Bruins are 7-3 ATS in games following a loss since the start of the 2020 season. When it’s their first or second loss of the year, his teams have gone 6-1 ATS. 

With two losses on the season, UCLA still has hope to compete for the Pac-12 title if things go its way. Chip Kelly has shown in the past that he can motivate his team to respond positively after a loss early in the season when the conference title hopes aren’t lost yet. The Bruins are also 3-1 ATS as favorites this year, including three straight covers as favorites. As for Stanford, it’s 0-2 ATS as an underdog of more than two touchdowns this season. 

PICK: UCLA -17 (-105 on FanDuel)

Other CFB Week 8 Bets:

(from Thursday's Bettor Sports Betting show)

  • Penn State/Ohio State UNDER 45.5
  • USC -6.5 (-132 DK)
  • Florida State -13.5 (-135 DK)
  • Arizona State +27.5 (-108 FD)
  • UCF +18.5 (-105 FD)
  • Oregon -18.5 (-115 FD)