2023 College Football Week 11 Best Bets & CFB Betting Picks for Saturday, November 11th

Welcome back to another week of CFB picks and college football best bets for Saturday's Week 11 CFB schedule. Unfortunately, we're coming off an 0-3 week with our college football picks as Georgia and South Carolina failed to cover while Iowa State lost. Even so, it's time to rebound and get back on the winning train. Our CFB Week 11 best bets feature Arizona vs Colorado and Alabama vs Kentucky. Enjoy these CFB picks and college football predictions as you tune into the Week 11 games. Plus, keep an eye out for the CFB DFS Playbook for top Week 11 college football daily fantasy picks. Let's now get to the college football best bets and CFB betting picks for Saturday, November 11th.
Check out Thursday's Bettor Sports Betting show for more CFB Week 11 bets:
College Football Week 11 Best Bets
Arizona at Colorado
Saturday, 2 pm ET
Arizona has been a bettor’s dream this season with an impressive 8-1 ATS mark, including three straight outright victories as an underdog. The Wildcats continue to surprise oddsmakers and Pac-12 opponents every week. Now, they’re two-score favorites on the road at Colorado – which should tell you a lot about how Vegas views the Buffs at this point despite their hot start to the season.
Freshman QB Noah Fifita has the Arizona offense humming since he took over for Jayden de Laura in late September. In Fifita’s five starts, the Wildcats are averaging 32.6 points and 431.2 total yards per game while going a perfect 5-0 ATS as underdogs in this stretch. Their passing offense now ranks 22nd in college football in terms of yards per game.
Now Arizona gets to face one of the worst defenses in the sport. In conference play, Colorado ranks 129th in pass defense while allowing 318.5 passing yards per game. The rush defense isn’t much better, but the Buffaloes have routinely gotten torched through the air by opposing Pac-12 quarterbacks. Add Fifita and the list this week as it should help Arizona stretch out a lead too big for Colorado to overcome.
The Buffs are 4-1 ATS as underdogs this season, but the last two covers deserve some context. Colorado was a double-digit dog to both Oregon State and UCLA in these past two weeks and needed a late score to cover the spread in both. Of course, the back door is always open with Deion Sanders having his guys play to the final whistle. Still, Arizona should win this one with ease to cover.
The Wildcats' defense is one of the more underrated units in the Pac-12 and in college football. Arizona is allowing only 22.3 PPG in conference play (34th-best in FBS) while giving up 350.8 total yards per game (39th). Over the past three games during their current win streak, the Wildcats have held some dangerous quarterbacks and offenses in check (Washington State, Oregon State, and UCLA). The Colorado attack can be a threat with Shedeur Sanders under center, but the offense has been struggling lately – especially with OC Sean Lewis getting demoted from play-calling duties. The Buffs have scored only 16 and 19 points in the past two games, which won’t cut it while trying to keep pace with a potent Arizona offense.
PICK: Arizona -10 (-110 BetMGM)
Alabama at Kentucky
Saturday, 12 pm ET
Alabama is coming off back-to-back double-digit wins over LSU and Tennessee heading into this weekend’s matchup. Those victories were impressive and made a statement to the college football world that Bama hasn’t gone anywhere. Even so, the Crimson Tide could be in for a slight letdown going on the road at Kentucky for a sleepy noon kickoff.
Last week, the Alabama offense took advantage of an easy matchup against a terrible and short-handed LSU defense. Things get much tougher with a Kentucky defense that ranks 22nd nationally against the run in terms of rushing yards allowed per game. If the Wildcats can limit the Tide’s rushing attack, then it’ll force Jalen Milroe to be more efficient and accurate with his short and intermediate throws. Milroe has a big arm and can hit the deep ball, but his down-to-down passing skills with normal throws are still very unproven.
Plus, a big part of Milroe’s game is his dual-threat ability as we saw last week when he ran for 155 yards and four TDs to lead Bama’s rushing attack. Fortunately for Kentucky, it was valuable experience already against some running QBs and has mostly held them in check. The Wildcats’ only three losses this season came against Georgia, Missouri, and Tennessee – all teams that use short-to-medium passes to move the ball with above-average throwing QBs. That’s not Alabama’s game.
On the other side, Kentucky’s offense should keep this one close with Devin Leary playing a lot better now that he’s over an early-season shoulder injury. He’s also good to go after dealing with blurred vision last week. The Wildcats boast a balanced offense with RB Ray Davis anchoring the run game.
As for some ATS trends, those suggest fading Alabama in this spot. Over the past three years, Bama has gone just 4-8 ATS on the road, failing to cover by over seven points per game. Plus, as a favorite of more than a touchdown on the road, the Tide are only 3-8 ATS in this recent stretch. Kentucky should keep this one within 10 points to cover in what will likely be a lower-scoring game as well – which benefits the double-digit dog.
PICK: Kentucky +10.5 (-105 BetMGM)
Other CFB Week 11 Bets:
(from Thursday's Bettor Sports Betting show)
- Michigan/Penn State Under 45.5
- Wake Forest +2.5
- Georgia -10.5
- Alabama/Kentucky Under 49 (BettorEdge contest)
Player News
Dolphins signed No. 13 overall pick DT Kenneth Grant to a four-year contract.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports that Grant will sign his contract today. The former Michigan defensive tackle is expected to fill a major void left by Christian Wilkins, who left for the Raiders in the 2024 offseason. Grant totaled 32 tackles, three sacks, and seven TFLs in his final season at Michigan and excelled at stopping the run while also generating 27 pressures in his final season, per PFF.
Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.