The 2023 NCAA college football season continues on Thursday night with some intriguing Week 1 CFB matchups. We had some hits and misses last week with our college football betting picks, but at least USC's team total came through for us. Let's wipe the slate clean and lock in CFB Week 1 picks and college football best bets for Thursday night's games. Florida vs Utah headlines the Thursday college football Week 1 schedule. The Cam Rising injury update for Utah gives us a lean on that matchup. Plus, we dive into Kent State vs UCF for our top CFB bets today. Enjoy these CFB picks and college football predictions as you tune into the games tonight. Plus, check out the CFB DFS Playbook for top Week 1 college football daily fantasy picks. Let's now get to the college football best bets and CFB betting picks for Thursday, August 31st.

 

College Football Week 1 Best Bets & Betting Picks

Thursday, August 31

Kent State at UCF Prediction

Before getting into any betting analysis for this game, we hope everyone is staying safe in the Southeast in the wake of Hurricane Idalia. The storm has especially impacted those of you in Florida, the location for this matchup between Kent State and UCF. Thus, rainy and stormy weather is expected in Orlando tonight and it could result in an uglier game. The conditions should make it tough to throw the ball consistently and successfully. Plus, a lightning delay is a real possibility, which would only throw off the rhythm of the offenses. This situation screams under right away.

When you look at Kent State’s offense, the under looks even better. The Golden Flashes got decimated this offseason by the transfer portal. Starting QB Collin Schlee is at UCLA and 1,300-yard rusher Marquez Cooper is at Ball State. The three leading receivers (Devontez Walker, Dante Cephus, and Ja’Shaun Poke) all transferred away as well. Kent State even lost an all-conference offensive lineman to the portal. To make matters worse, the Golden Flashes are also welcoming in a first-time head coach in Kenni Burns. It might not be pretty on the road against a UCF defense that returns plenty of experience and added some defensive talent itself via transfer.

In normal weather conditions, UCF’s offense could put up 56+ points on its own. Tonight, though, bank on the Knights opting for a run-heavy gameplan. Dual-threat John Rhys Plumlee is one of the best rushing quarterbacks in college football. UCF also has a talented backfield trio of RJ Harvey, Johnny Richardson, and Demarkcus Bowman. Expect a heavy dose of those four carrying the ball as UCF tries to pound Kent State and string together longer scoring drives. Plus, we have to factor in college football’s new first-down rules and running clock – which should lead to more unders, in general, this season.

PICK: Kent State-UCF UNDER 56 (-110 on DraftKings)

Florida at Utah Prediction

According to multiple reports, Utah starting QB Cam Rising is expected to miss this season-opening matchup against Florida. This has been a possibility ever since he tore his ACL in last year’s Rose Bowl and it appears he hasn’t recovered in time to play. With Rising sidelined, Utah’s offense has to be downgraded. Backup QB Bryson Barnes has some skills, but Rising’s running ability was a real weapon and gave the Utah attack another dimension. 

The Utes will likely go with a run-heavy game plan with lead back Ja’Quinden Jackson anchoring the offense. ESPN’s Pete Thamel reported that third-string QB Nate Johnson could also see some playing time as a Wildcat-type option in different looks. Yes, Florida’s defense left a lot to be desired last year and isn’t expected to be much better in 2023. Even so, the Utes being shorthanded at QB cannot be overlooked. Plus, stud tight end Brant Kuithe is questionable to play as he’s also returning from injury. 

Overall, expect Utah to set the tone and keep this one lower-scoring. It’ll roll with a run-focused, grind-it-out approach on the offensive end as outlined above. Defensively, the Utes should have the advantage over Florida. This defense is viewed as one of the best in college football with strong defenders on every level. It allowed only 21.4 PPG last year (27th nationally) and can be better this season. It’s a tough matchup for anyone, let alone a Gators offense with a lot of moving parts. 

Transfer QB Graham Mertz is now Florida’s starter after manning an underwhelming Wisconsin offense that lacked a real aerial attack. Plus, three of the top four receivers from last year’s Gators squad are gone. On the road in Utah is a tough spot for Mertz to find immediate success in a new offense with unfamiliar weapons and chemistry. Take the under in this game as the first to 21 or 24 points could be the winner. 

Pick: Florida-Utah UNDER 44.5 (-115 on FanDuel)

Other CFB Week 1 Thursday Bets To Consider:

  • Nebraska +7 (-106 on FanDuel)
  • NC State -14 (-110 on BetMGM)