Xavier vs. Texas Predictions, Picks & Odds: First Four, 3/19
The 2025 NCAA Tournament is officially underway with a pair of First Four games tipping off last night. We have two more matchups on Wednesday before the first-round games come tomorrow. No. 11 seeds Xavier and Texas go head-to-head in the First Four tonight with the winner advancing to face No. 6 seed Illinois in the Midwest Region of the bracket.
Check out our Xavier vs. Texas predictions below for tonight’s First Four March Madness matchup. We’ll take a deep dive into the top stats, players, storylines, and betting odds to know.
Xavier vs. Texas Predictions For First Four March Madness, 3/19
Wednesday night’s First Four matchup between Xavier and Texas sets up to be a tight, higher-scoring contest. Both squads come in with plenty of talent and the potential to win multiple games in the NCAA Tournament.
Let’s now get into the top Xavier vs. Texas predictions for tonight’s First Four March Madness showdown.
Xavier Musketeers: Playing Well At The Right Time
In early January, Xavier was just 9-7 overall with a 1-4 mark in Big East play. It looked like a potentially lost season for the Musketeers, who entered the year with enticing preseason hype. Yet, they have since completely turned things around.
Xavier went 12-3 in their final 15 regular-season games, including seven straight wins heading into the Big East Tournament. The Musketeers then lost by two points against Marquette in the conference bracket. They nearly pulled off the upset in that one, leading by double digits in the second half but coming up just short.
According to BartTorvik, Xavier is playing like the 18th-best team in the country over the past month. It ranks 21st in offensive efficiency and 26th in defensive efficiency during this stretch as well, per Torvik.
Sean Miller has his team heading in the right direction at the perfect time. Despite barely making it into the NCAA Tournament, Xavier’s current form is on par with many top-tier teams in the country.
Texas Longhorns: Can They Flip The Script On A Disappointing Season?
Texas began the season ranked 19th in the AP Preseason Poll and got off to an 11-2 start in non-conference play. Then the Longhorns got exposed by the juggernaut SEC competition. They went 6-12 in conference action and haven’t won more than two games in a row since December.
The Longhorns have underperformed so much that head coach Rodney Terry is still on the hot seat despite an NCAA Tournament berth. They also likely wouldn’t be in the March Madness field if not for an overtime win vs. Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament. Yet, here they are.
Freshman Tre Johnson, a projected NBA Draft lottery pick, headlines the Longhorns. He’s a pure bucket-getter and has singlehandedly won Texas a few games. If Johnson isn’t scoring at a high clip, though, the supporting cast tends to be unreliable.
How To Watch First Four March Madness 2025
Wednesday’s First Four March Madness game between Xavier and Texas tips off at approximately 9:10 pm ET. You can watch it on truTV or stream on Max.
The Xavier vs. Texas matchup will follow another First Four game. No. 16 seeds Mount St. Mary’s and American tips off at 6:40 pm ET on truTV. Let’s now dive into some Xavier vs. Texas picks, odds, and predictions.
Xavier vs. Texas Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines
Before we get to our Xavier vs. Texas predictions, check out the betting lines on FanDuel Sportsbook. As of this writing, here are the Xavier vs. Texas odds:
- Xavier Musketeers (-154) vs. Texas Longhorns (+128)
- Spread: Xavier -2.5 (-118) vs. Texas +2.5 (-104)
- Game Total: Over 151.5 (-115) vs. Under 151.5 (-105)
Xavier vs. Texas Spread Pick: Musketeers -2.5 (-118 on FanDuel)
As mentioned above, Xavier enters this matchup on a roll. It won seven straight to end the regular season and is 12-4 over the past 16 games overall. Conversely, Texas is just 4-8 over its last 12 contests. Let’s take Xavier -2.5 (-118 at FanDuel) for our Xaver vs. Texas predictions.
Some key stats point towards the Musketeers winning tonight. They do two things offensively at an elite level. Xavier is shooting 38.6% from three-point range (6th in Division I) and 79.4% from the free-throw line (8th). Meanwhile, Texas ranks 143rd nationally in three-point defense and 319th in opposing free-throw attempts rate.
Xavier can build and maintain a lead with its hot three-point shooting and strong free-throw percentage in this matchup. Zach Freemantle and Ryan Conwall anchor a Musketeers offense that’s been trending up for the past two months. They both should have success against a shaky Texas defense.
Plus, Xavier has the coaching advantage with Sean Miller on the sidelines. Miller took the Musketeers to the Sweet 16 two years ago and previously made five Sweet 16 appearances in seven tries with Arizona.
Texas is just 3-9 against the spread (ATS) over its last 12 games. The Longhorns are also 1-3 ATS against non-SEC power-conference teams this season. Meanwhile, Xavier is 6-3 ATS over its last nine contests. It’s also 10-3 ATS as a single-digit underdog this year. Take the Musketeers to cover as 2.5-point favorites (-118 on FanDuel) for our Xavier vs. Texas picks.
Xavier vs. Texas Injury Report & Starting Lineup
Xavier Musketeers Injury Report
- Trey Green (G) – Out
Xavier Musketeers Expected Starters
- Zach Freemantle (F) – 17.3 PPG, 7.1 RPG
- Ryan Conwell (G) – 16.8 PPG, 2.5 APG
- Dailyn Swain (F) – 10.5 PPG, 5.4 RPG
- Dayvion McKnight (G) – 9.6 PPG, 4.3 APG
- Marcus Foster (G) – 7.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG
Texas Longhorns Injury Report
- None
Texas Longhorns Expected Starters
- Tre Johnson (G) – 19.8 PPG, 2.8 APG
- Arthur Kaluma (F) – 12.4 PPG, 7.6 RPG
- Jordan Pope (G) – 11.2 PPG, 1.7 APG
- Tramon Mark (G) – 10.4 PPG, 3.6 RPG
- Kadin Shedrick (F) – 8.7 PPG, 6.1 RPG
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Player News
Dolphins signed No. 13 overall pick DT Kenneth Grant to a four-year contract.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports that Grant will sign his contract today. The former Michigan defensive tackle is expected to fill a major void left by Christian Wilkins, who left for the Raiders in the 2024 offseason. Grant totaled 32 tackles, three sacks, and seven TFLs in his final season at Michigan and excelled at stopping the run while also generating 27 pressures in his final season, per PFF.
Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.