Who else has the March Madness fever? The 2024 NCAA Tournament starts up in less than a week and we’ll all be filling out brackets soon enough. 

The best college basketball teams favored to cut down the nets are well-documented at this point. If you missed it, check out my breakdown of the top NCAA Tournament title favorites featuring UConn, Purdue, and Houston. 

It’s time now to focus on the March Madness sleepers, aka, dark horse teams who can make some noise in this year’s NCAA Tournament bracket. Can Illinois, Gonzaga, or Michigan State go on a run to the Final Four? How about Nevada as an under-the-radar team? Let’s dive in! 

 

 

 

March Madness Underdogs: NCAA Tournament Sleepers In 2024

Illinois Fighting Illini

With Purdue being so dominant, Illinois has been a bit overshadowed as the Big Ten’s second-best team this season. Even so, the Illini are rated among the top 10-15 teams in the country by most advanced metrics and are very likely to make a deep run, whether we're talking NCAA Tournament underdogs or just the field in general. 

Illinois has the fourth-best offense in college hoops, per KenPom, and averaged 83.9 PPG this season. Terrence Shannon Jr. (21.6 PPG) and Marcus Domask (16.0 PPG) headline the offense as versatile scorers who share playmaking duties. Coleman Hawkins offers plenty of offensive upside from the center spot as well. Illinois can reel off multiple wins in the bracket with this high-powered attack that usually forces opponents to match it on the scoreboard. 

The one worry for Brad Underwood’s squad is the defense, which ranks outside the top 70 in the sport (per KenPom). Underwood also has yet to advance past the second round in the Tournament in his coaching career. Still, the Illini enter this year as a firm March Madness sleeper, as they can outscore almost anyone. Don't be surprised if they reach the Final Four.

 

 

 

Gonzaga Bulldogs

Casual college basketball fans might think Gonzaga shouldn’t be categorized as a March Madness sleeper, but this year’s team is exactly that. The Zags started the season slow with a 9-4 record in non-conference play, including losses in big matchups vs Purdue, UConn, and San Diego State. Everyone wrote them off and their chances to even make the NCAA Tournament seemed low. 

Then Mark Few’s squad went 14-2 in the WCC with 12 of those victories coming by double digits. The Zags also added an impressive road win at Kentucky in February and are rated as a top 15-20 team in college hoops by advanced metrics. This isn’t the same juggernaut Gonzaga that we’ve grown accustomed to seeing in years past, but that doesn’t mean it’s not a dark horse contender. 

The Zags have a top-10 offense that plays fast and averaged 84.9 PPG this season. Point guard Ryan Nembhard has been playing at an elite level over the past month-plus and was a key piece of Creighton’s Elite Eight run last year. Center Graham Ike is a handful in the paint and will dominate smaller frontcourts. Don’t forget, Gonzaga has reached the Sweet 16 in eight straight Tournaments and should not go overlooked despite a worse seed than normal.

 

 

 

Michigan State Spartans

Simply put, this has been a rollercoaster season for Michigan State. The Spartans began the year ranked No. 4 in the Preseason AP Poll and plenty of national hype. Since then, Tom Izzo’s squad has gone through more than its fair share of ups and downs en route to an 18-13 regular-season record and winning just half of its Big Ten matchups. Still, Sparty is viewed as a top-25 team in the NET rankings and other advanced metrics despite the uncharacteristic results.

This is an experienced team with seniors Tyson Walker, A.J. Hoggard, and Malik Hall giving Izzo some trusted vets to lean on. Those three, along with junior Jaden Akins, are also holdovers from last year’s Sweet 16 team. Michigan State has the 11th-ranked defense in the sport, per KenPom, and only allowed 65.9 PPG this season. 

Plus, we always have to factor in Izzo’s proven success in the NCAA Tournament bracket – even with underperforming teams. The poor record and seeding may tell a different story, but the Spartans have the ability to win a few games while taking down title contenders in the process. 

 

 

 

Nevada Wolfpack

A year ago, we saw San Diego State make a surprising run to the National Championship game coming out of the Mountain West. The conference again boasts a number of teams who can realistically reel off multiple wins in the bracket this season. Nevada is one of those and has a few key ingredients that can lead to March Madness sleeper success. 

First off, head coach Steve Alford has a proven NCAA Tournament pedigree after previously leading UCLA to three Sweet 16’s over a four-year span. He’s yet to do it with Nevada, but this is also his best Wolfpack team so far and just their second bracket berth under Alford.

Talented guard play usually leads to postseason wins and Nevada boasts a pair of backcourt playmakers. Fifth-year senior Jarod Lucas averaged 17.8 PPG this season while shooting close to 40% from three-point range. He also brings valuable postseason experience to the table as a top player from Oregon State’s 2021 Elite Eight squad. Kenan Blackshear, meanwhile, is a 6-foot-6 point guard who gives the Wolfpack a versatile skill set and length on both ends. 

Nevada is also playing their best basketball at the right time. The Wolfpack went 10-1 in the final stretch of the regular season, featuring impressive road wins at Utah State, Boise State, and Colorado State in that span. BartTorvik.com has them as a top-20 team in the country since the beginning of February and KenPom rates Nevada top-40 in both offense and defense overall this season.