The Big Ten Tournament gets underway today with a first-round matchup between the Iowa Hawkeyes and Ohio State Buckeyes. Check out these Iowa vs. Ohio State predictions below as we take a deep dive into the game. 

Wednesday’s matchup holds plenty of ramifications for both teams’ NCAA Tournament hopes. Enjoy our Iowa vs. Ohio State picks before the game tips off at 6 pm ET from Indianapolis. Let’s now get into the top Iowa vs. Ohio State predictions for the Big Ten Conference Tournament. 

 

 

 

Iowa vs. Ohio State Predictions For Big Ten Conference Tournament, 3/12

Before we get into the Iowa vs. Ohio State picks, let’s set the table for both teams. Iowa enters as the No. 15 seed following a disappointing regular season where it went 7-13 in conference play. Ohio State is the No. 10 seed and remains squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble ahead of today’s matchup. 

These teams faced off once in the regular season with Ohio State winning at home, 82-65. The Buckeyes took full advantage of Iowa’s defensive issues in the comfortable victory. Coincidentally, Ohio State also played Iowa in the Big Ten Tournament a year ago and won that meeting, 90-78. Could that foreshadow our Iowa vs. Ohio State predictions? 

 

 

 

Iowa Hawkeyes: Plenty Of Offense, Not Enough Defense 

Iowa boasts one of the top offenses in college basketball. It’s averaging 82.3 PPG (17th in Division I) and ranks 23rd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom. The Hawkeyes are shooting a lights-out 37.7% from three-point range (24th) and play at the 16th-fastest offensive pace in the country. 

However, Iowa’s defense has been an issue all year. It ranks last in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency and opposing field-goal percentage. The Hawkeyes’ 79.2 PPG allowed is also the conference’s worst. 

Iowa’s offense can score a ton, but the defense has regularly cost them victories. The Hawkeyes are just 3-8 over their last 11 games with six of those losses coming by double-digits. One of those was the aforementioned 17-point loss at Ohio State. They’re firmly outside the NCAA Tournament picture and a longshot to win this Big Ten tourney. 

 

 

 

Ohio State Buckeyes: Don’t Burst Their Bubble 

Simply put, Ohio State needs to win today to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive. The Buckeyes have been on the bubble for weeks, bouncing between the “First Four Out” and “Last Four In” groupings. They also likely need to win multiple games in the Big Ten Tournament to feel good about their chances of going dancing. 

Ohio State went 9-11 in conference play and just the regular-season finale to another bubble team in Indiana. Despite the sub-.500 league record, the Buckeyes boast some impressive wins on their resume. They beat Kentucky on a neutral court in December and then upset Purdue on the road in January. A home win vs. Maryland last month is also aging well. 

The Buckeyes hang their hat on being solid on both ends of the floor. They rank 31st in the country in offensive efficiency and 49th in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Ohio State’s roster is also very balanced with four starters averaging at least 13 PPG. This team could make noise in the NCAA Tournament – but it has to get there first. 

 

 

 

Iowa vs. Ohio State Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines 

Before we get to the game prediction, check out the Iowa vs. Ohio State odds on FanDuel Sportsbook. As of this writing, here are the numbers: 

  • Iowa Hawkeyes (+180) vs. Ohio State (-220)
    • Spread: Iowa +5.5 (-115) vs. Ohio State -5.5 (-105)
    • Game Total: Over 154.5 (-110) vs. Under 154.5 (-110)

 

 

 

Iowa vs. Ohio State Spread Pick: Buckeyes -5.5 (-105 on FanDuel Sportsbook)

As mentioned above, Ohio State defeated Iowa by 17 points in the prior matchup. Though that was a home game for the Buckeyes, it still exemplified the strengths and weaknesses of both squads. Ohio State shot 61.1% from the field with balanced scoring from its four main contributors. Bruce Thornton, Micah Parrish, Josh Mobley, and Devin Royal are all reliable playmakers. 

The Buckeyes also won the rebound battle in that win, 43 to 31. They controlled the paint on both ends against Iowa’s undersized lineup. To make matters worse, Hawkeyes starting center Owen Freeman is out for the season. He was one of their top scorers and leading rebounder from that game vs. Ohio State. 

Iowa also shot just 28.0% from three-point range in the loss to Ohio State. When the Hawkeyes aren’t hitting threes, they can get into big deficits fast. They’re shooting 37.7% from deep but rely on the three at the second-highest rate in the Big Ten. Well, Ohio State defends the perimeter well – holding opponents to 30.0% from three this season (13th-best in Division I). 

The Buckeyes’ defense funnels scoring inside while shutting teams down from beyond the arc. That’s not what Iowa wants to do on offense, though. It ranks 315th nationally in offensive rebounding rate and 335th in free-throw attempts rate. Those are two of Ohio State’s weaknesses on defense, but the Hawkeyes can’t exploit them. 

Furthermore, Iowa comes in ice-cold against the spread. It’s a conference-worst 5-14-1 ATS vs. Big Ten competition this season. The Hawkeyes are also just 2-12-1 ATS in their past 15 games. Let’s back Ohio State -5.5 (-105 at FanDuel) for our Iowa vs. Ohio State predictions. 

 

 

 

Iowa vs. Ohio State Injury Report & Starting Lineup

Iowa Hawkeyes Injury Report

  • Owen Freeman (F) – Out: Finger
  • Cooper Koch (F) – Questionable: Undisclosed

Iowa Hawkeyes Projected Starters 

  • Payton Sandfort (F) – 16.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG
  • Josh Dix (G) – 14.1 PPG, 2.8 APG
  • Drew Thelwell (G) – 9.6 PPG, 2.9 APG
  • Seydou Traore (F) – 6.1 PPG, 2.9 RPG 
  • Ladji Dembele (F) – 4.4 PPG, 3.4 APG

Ohio State Buckeyes Injury Report

  • Meechie Johnson (G) – Out: Personal

Ohio State Projected Starters

  • Bruce Thornton (G) – 17.5 PPG, 4.5 APG
  • Devin Royal (F) – 13.6 PPG, 6.9 RPG
  • Micah Parrish (G) – 13.2 PPG, 4.5 RPG
  • John Mobley (G) – 13.2 PPG, 2.3 APG
  • Sean Stewart (F) – 5.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG

 

 

 

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