NFL DFS Playbook: Week 7

The No. 1 way to beat the Titans is to do it through the air, plain and simple. Their secondary has been one of the worst all season long, they allow the ninth-most passing yards per game, they've given up 12 touchdowns through the air and rank 27th against the pass in DVOA. Mahomes knows he needs to take control of this game when he's on offense and he knows he's going to have to score quickly. The Titans will try to control the clock and the pace with heavy usage of Derrick Henry, so if Mahomes wants to push the Titans into more of a catch-up mode, he has to do it early. Tyreek Hill returned to practice Friday and Travis Kelce is good to go. Mahomes is ready to get the Chiefs back atop the standings in the AFC West.

This has been an interesting season for Jackson as his passing numbers have far exceeded what he's done in the past, save for last week, that is. But even with last week's 167-yard day, he's still averaging 281 passing yards per game with one 300-yard game and even one 400-yard effort. Now granted, he hasn't had a rushing touchdown in four weeks, but he's posted 20-plus fantasy points in all but one week this season. The Bengals defense has certainly improved, but are their DVOA numbers (8th vs the pass, 4th vs the run) inflated by facing teams like the Lions, Bears, Jaguars and Steelers? Maybe a little. The Ravens are playing fantastic ball right now, they're nestled comfortably at home and Jackson even has a new weapon in Rashod Bateman. We could see some low ownership this week as everyone loves the new-look Bengals, so that's another advantage for us.

Everyone loves the revenge-game narrative and you know this game has been circled on the calendar since the day Stafford was traded. While the Lions actually did Stafford a solid by trading him away, the quarterback wants to show his former team exactly what he is capable of if you surround him with the proper weapons. Heck, any weapons for that matter. With the Lions giving up 252.3 passing yards per game and allowing 12 touchdowns through the air, things should be easy for Stafford to show off his talents and weapons. Some might be afraid that the game turns into a blow-out and Stafford will sit in the fourth quarter like he did against the Giants, but he still threw for 250 with four touchdowns in that one and should easily, at the least, match those totals.  

This is a great match-up for Rodgers this week as Washington has allowed 16 passing touchdowns this season, most in the NFL, and opposing QBs are posting a 104.4 passer rating against them. They also happen to be allowing the most fantasy points per game to the QB position. It's good to see him connecting with Allen Lazard again, so we can expect to see him spread the ball around a little more than usual which simply increases his opportunities to score. And who knows…maybe he runs another one in, right?

While Hurts may not be your ideal quarterback in reality, fantasy-wise, he's been a rock-solid cash game option thanks to the rushing totals. He's thrown for fewer than 200 yards in each of his last two games, but made up for it with two rushing touchdowns in each contest. The Raiders aren't giving up a lot of yards through the air, but they have allowed nine passing touchdowns and seven rushing touchdowns. The cost of FanDuel is laughable, but the price on DK might be helpful in building cash lineups. 

The Falcons are coming off a bye and have had two weeks to fix their offensive line woes and prepare for the Dolphins. Miami's pass defense hasn't been all that it was expected to be and they giving up 292.5 passing yards per game while giving up a total of 13 passing touchdowns on the year. Even with a strong pair of cover-corners, the Fins are allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to the QB position.

From everything I am reading and seeing, there do not seem to be any lingering concerns over the Dolphins pushing their bye to further into the season following a trip to London, so we can move past those thoughts. Instead, we'll focus on the struggles of the Falcons defense, even coming off a bye. In fact, the Falcons pass defense has been pretty gross thus far and opposing QBs have been incredibly efficient against them, posting a 109.5 passer rating, the third highest in the league. Tua looked good in his return last week, so if he can perform at that level again, he could be a real nice option under center.

As expected, Henry's usage in DFS is going to come down to salary and affordability. If you're comfortable using a couple of dart-throws in your cash lineups, then by all means. But if that doesn't scare you off, then Henry is as strong a lock as you can get, especially against a Chiefs defense that is giving up the sixth-most rushing yards per game, has allowed nine rushing touchdowns and gives up the 10th-most fantasy points per game to the running back position. The Titans are going to run Henry as much as they can to control the clock and the pace of this game, so concerns over volume are not warranted, even in a losing effort. Oh yeah…and the guy has 10 touchdowns on the year already. Yeah…10!

While Stafford will, undoubtedly, look to hog most of the spotlight, you know Henderson is going to get his his touches in what should be a blow-out. The Lions are giving up 132.2 rushing yards per game, they've allowed six rushing touchdowns on the year, they rank dead last in DVOA against running back pass-plays and they're giving up the second-most fantasy points per game to the running back position. Sounds delish, doesn't it? 

Yes, adding Patterson to the Watch List made me feel pretty dirty and I actually debated whether or not to include him in the Playbook. Mike Davis still sees more snaps and has carried the ball more than Patterson has through the first five games. But Patterson's versatility and heavy usage in the passing attack continues to keep him on the radar, especially in a full-point PPR format like Draft Kings. The receiving work is actually giving him a high enough floor to use in cash games, though he is getting a little pricey ($8K on FD? Seriously?), and the touchdown upside with continuous usage gives him a high ceiling for GPP tournaments. With the struggles the Miami defense has been having, this could be a strong game from him, especially since they're allowing over 125 rushing yards per game with seven rushing touchdowns.

With Christian McCaffrey on IR, Hubbard is in a really great spot against a Giants team that is allowing 137.2 rushing yards per game with a 4.5 yards per carry average. With the struggles of Darnold over the last two weeks, you can expect the Panthers to go with a run-heavy scheme early, just as Matt Rhule told the media, and allow that to open up the passing game more. That, in turn, will allow for wider rushing lanes to open and Hubbard could post his second 100-yard effort and maybe even his second touchdown.

For three-straight weeks, Conner has out-snapped Chase Edmonds and there was a clear separation in carries between the two. Could that have been due to Edmonds' shoulder issues? Yes. But with his recent performance, Conner seems to now own this backfield now and should have a grand old time running against the Texans, who have allowed 141.3 rushing yards per game which is the second-highest in the league. They've also given up a league-high 11 rushing touchdowns on the season so expect Conner to eat at the big kid's table and maybe even get seconds. Edmonds does enter this week without an injury designation, but with the expected blow-out and there being limited need for Edmonds in the passing attack, Conner comes in as a solid pay-down.

If you listened to the NFL DFS Podcast with me and Jon Impemba, you would have heard me dismiss some of the cheaper backs, but after working on some lineup construction and knowing that Conner will have Edmonds to deal with and J.D. McKissic will be dealing with Antonio Gibson again, we needed a cheap guy who has the backfield to himself. Enter Booker, who is not ceding any real work to Elijah Penny or Gary Brightwell and is getting most of, if not all, the touches. With the Giants receiving corps as banged-up as it is, you should expect the Giants to go out there and try to establish the run early with the hopes of opening things up for play-action. The Panthers actually rank 18th in DVOA against the run and are allowing 111.5 rushing yards per game with five rushing touchdowns on the year. More importantly, they're allowing a 4.7 yards per carry average which is fourth-worst in the league. This isn't a sexy pick and we don't need a crazy day from him, but using him should allow you to get Derrick Henry into your cash lineups without having to throw a ton of darts.

OK, well you just read the Booker write-up, so now you know – yes, I do have some concern that Washington is going to let Gibson run even though he was ineffective last week and left the game like three times because of soreness. Like Jon said in the podcast, maybe they're just hoping to get some usage out of him before their bye week, but I still don't like it or understand undertaking that kind of risk. Yes, the Packers defense is a run-funnel, so maybe they think it won't be too tough on him, but regardless, I'm still standing by McKissic in GPP tournaments, especially in a full-point PPR format. Aaron Rodgers should have no issues throwing on the Washington secondary and I fully expect them to be in catch-up mode which should keep McKissic on the field more. We'll sneak him into some GPP lineups, especially knowing that the Packers are 24th in DVOA against running back pass-plays.

Washington ranks 28th in DVOA against the pass and they're allowing 89.8 yards per game, the second-highest total, to the opposing WR1. They also allow the second-most fantasy points per game to the position. Adams lines up all over the field, so no matter which corner he faces, he's going to have tremendous success. This game has all the earmarks of a potential shootout and while the 47.5 over/under isn't ginormous, it happens to be the fifth-highest on the slate.

This guy has league-winner written all over him and now his best friend in the whole wide world is going to be leading the charge into a revenge-game narrative? Yes, please! The Lions rank 23rd in DVOA against opposing No. 1 receivers and have allowed 88.1 receiving yards per game to them. With the volume Kupp receives from Stafford, this will be one of the week's biggest no-brainers.

Another big-time name in another big-time smash-spot and with Hill returning to full practice Friday, it's an all-systems-go here. The Chiefs are going to love abusing the Titans' secondary this week and it will easily be Hill leading the charge. Tennessee is giving up the most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position and are already allowing an average of 85 receiving yards per game to the opposing WR1. Janoris Jenkins can't hang with him, Kristian Fulton is on IR and Elijah Molden is way out of his league here. That Chiefs stack is going to be expensive but, oh baby, is it going to be worth it.

He's on the cover of the Playbook for a reason, people. I am appreciative of the fact that he's not the most expensive receiver out there and am likely to jam him into as many of my lineups as I possibly can. Things did not end well between Hopkins and the Texans and the opportunity to destroy his former team is something he's been salivating over, especially since they tried to label him as a troublemaker and clubhouse cancer following the trade that shipped him to Arizona. Yes, Kyler Murray has been spreading the ball around, but if there was ever a game you expect him to funnel the targets Hopkins' way, this is it. The Texans corners are not going to be able to hang with him. Not at all. 

Since losing Jaire Alexander, the Packers' pass-coverage has been lagging and with Kevin King also now questionable with a shoulder injury, things are looking up for McLaurin. He's been quiet over the past two weeks while dealing with a hamstring issue, but he walks into this week with no injury designation and a potential game-script that points towards Washington in a pass-heavy mode. And even with the recent struggles, McLaurin ranks in the top-10 of 20-plus yard receptions and in the top-five of receptions of 40 yards or more. He'll be a GPP staple given the match-up and if I can fit him, I may even use him for cash games too.

Call me crazy, but this guy is going to bink someone a GPP this week. He's fallen way off the radar having missed the London game for personal reasons and then having a bye last week. His numbers through the first four weeks have been pedestrian and the seasonal fantasy community is already labeling him a bust. You know when the public is off a guy of this caliber and the DFS sites drop his price, it's just a matter of time before he tears it up and everyone scratches their heads, wondering why they didn't use him. The Dolphins are allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to the receiver position and they also happen to rank 27th in DVOA against the opposing WR1. If Ridley can see the double-digit targets he had been receiving before he ghosted us, he's going to smash in this one.

I was actually on Evans this week even before we got the news that Antonio Brown was out, so with that, and the knowledge of no Rob Gronkowski, I like this play even more. Brady has thrown 14 of his 17 touchdowns during the Bucs' three home games so far and the Bears pass-coverage, while it looks good with regard to DVOA, is the sixth-worst according to Pro Football Focus, right behind Tennessee. Evans lines up all over the field, but the expectation is that the Bucs will keep Godwin in the slot and use a combination of Tyler Johnson and Jaelon Darden on the outside during three-receiver sets and neither Kindle Vildor nor Jaylon Johnson will be able to contain him. 

He was on a snap count Monday night and still led the team in targets, receptions and receiving yards. Ryan Tannehill is very grateful to have him back on the field and will be slinging the rock often in this match-up against the Chiefs. Having a guy like Henry coming out of the backfield does wonders for the paly-action scheme and once that opens up, Brown is going to have a field day against these soft Chiefs corners. If it helps to know that the Chiefs rank 24th in DVOA against the opposing WR1, here you go. They do and they allow an average of 80.1 receiving yards per game to them.  

OK, fine. So Hollywood didn't get into the end zone last week. Big deal. That has no bearing on whether or not he will this week as this match-up against the Bengals looks awfully tasty. Cincinnati has only allowed six passing touchdowns this season, but ranks 22nd in DVOA against the opposition's No. 1 receiver, allowing an average of 83.6 yards per game. We had quite the debate on the DFS Podcast regarding Brown and new arrival Rashod Bateman and while I agree with Jon that Bateman is a great addition, I am not going to let one game push Brown aside as the top receiver on this team. Again, if he catches one of those balls in Week 3 and scored, we wouldn't even be having this debate. I feel confident in Brown and as you heard, will happily use him and Bateman together in a GPP stack.

Waddle looked fantastic in his reunion with Tua this past weekend and the two will get another golden opportunity to shine as they take on a super-soft Atlanta secondary. The Falcons are giving up almost 245 yards per game through the air, they've allowed 11 passing touchdowns and rank 29th in DVOA against the opposing No. 1 receiver. We won't predict another two-score game for the rookie, but it certainly wouldn't be out of the question.

While the targets have dropped over the last two games, Meyers continues to produce at a strong level in full-point PPR formats. Can he get into the end zone? Well, that seems to be the big joke around the fantasy world, but it seems hard to believe he will never score. (What? Is his wife a Giants fan? Thanks! I'll be playing the room all night! Tip your waitresses and try the veal!). But seriously, he's averaged between nine and 19 points in PPR and for the price, that's exactly where you want to live for cash games. He's a productive salary-saver. The added bonus is that the Jets secondary is terrible in comparison to how they defend the run, so look for Mac Jones to take some shots downfield and inside the red zone to get Meyers his first career touchdown.

He's been brutal, right? Even with the touchdown last week, he still had just three catches for 11 yards. That's not good. But if you take into consideration the 29 targets he's seen over the past three weeks, suddenly it becomes a little more interesting given the price tag. Now, Matt Rhule did say they were going to run a lot more, but that's actually not a cause for concern here. He's talking about getting back to the basics and that's important for Sam Darnold's development. If the Panthers can establish the run, it will help open up the passing game more and allow for softer coverage and a more confident QB-WR tandem. The Giants have allowed 14 passing touchdowns this season which is third-highest in the league and there's a really good chance Anderson is a part of helping raise that number. 

LATE ADD – Looking for some more WR value for cash games put me onto Mooney a little more this week. I was actually tempted to add him to the Dart Board, but I actually would trust Mooney in cash, given the targets he is routinely seeing from Fields. He's averaging about six targets per game since Fields took over and has one 100-yard performance and one touchdown in that span. I'm not ready to completely sign off on the fact that he's surpassed Allen Robinson in this offense just yet, but it's getting close. Mooney also doesn't have an injury designation this week and the Bears are likely to lean much more heavily on the pass than even trying to run.

Paying up for Kelce hasn't been what many have expected over the past two weeks, but the Titans have now given up touchdowns to tight ends in each of the last two games. There is no telling what Dawson Knox would have done to them on Monday had he not gotten hurt, but his back-up coming in and immediately scoring on a pass from Josh Allen indicates nothing but great things for tight ends everywhere.

If you're not paying up for Kelce, you're paying up for Waller. The Eagles are allowing an average of 51.5 receiving yards per game to the tight end position, they rank 20th in DVOA against the slot where Waller lines up often and they're giving up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to them. He's been quiet these past couple of weeks which should keep ownership low in GPP tournaments. Push the chips all-in, baby!

The Bengals aren't giving up a ton of yardage to the tight end position, but they do rank 18th in DVOA against them. Lamar Jackson has locked onto his tight end in recent weeks, sending 27 targets his way over the last three weeks, including seven inside the red zone. That has resulted in three touchdowns over the last two games and all the evidence you need that he [Andrews] serves as a security blanket for his quarterback. You can use him as a legitimate pay-down from Kelce in cash games and as either a one-off or part of a stack in GPP tournaments.

Miami is another team that hasn't given up a ton of fantasy points to the tight end, but they do rank 20th in DVOA against the position, allowing an average of 52.3 receiving yards per game to them. If what we saw from Ryan and Pitts against the Jets right before the bye is real, then this should be the continuation of a fantastic stretch of games for the rookie. He saw 10 targets which he turned into nine catches for 119 yards that game and should see a similar volume this week.

The Lions rank dead-last in DVOA against the tight end and are allowing 51.3 receiving yards per game to them. With Stafford looking to sling the rock against his former team, you have to think that there will be a few recipients of his good will. Higbee has two touchdowns in his last four games and has eight red zone targets in his last four. 

And just like that, the days of the world's best bargain are now gone. So much for 100-percent of the snaps at the minimum price. The Packers give up the 12th-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position and rank 22nd against them in DVOA. If RSJ continues to get this kind of attention, he'll be a staple in the Playbook and could end up as this year's Robert Tonyan. Oh, the irony of that statement with him facing the Packers this week!

You never get a second chance to make a first impression, Zach. Now that he's got the position back to himself and has a much better QB throwing to him in Kyler Murray, I fully expect Ertz to return to form and be one of the top tight ends in the league once again. He caught a touchdown in his final game with the Eagles and now that he's facing a putrid Texans defense that allows the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end, he should do some end zone dancing in his first game as a Cardinal as well.

Who knows Jared Goff better than anyone in the NFL? Yup. That would be Sean McVay. And not only do the Rams rank fourth in the league with 10 takeaways (eight interceptions), but Goff has thrown four picks to just seven touchdowns this season and is definitely in trouble for this match-up. I hate paying up for defenses, but this just might be the time to do it as Goff has pick-six written all over him…maybe more than once.

Thank you, Draft Kings for not having the good sense to raise the Cardinals price tag this week, even though they are facing the bottom-feeding Texans. Arizona ranks third in takeaways with 13 this season while the Texans have the third-highest number of giveaways this season. There's a reason this point spread is so high as the Texans are going to struggle to score every time they touch the ball.

While the Bucs secondary has been decimated by injuries and their pass-coverage has been lacking, they still handle the run beautifully and have a rock-solid pass-rush even if Lavonte David is out. This comes down to facing a rookie QB in Justin Fields and an offense that has routinely struggled to pass the ball effectively this season. Be on the lookout for rookie mistakes and expect the Bucs to capitalize on them.

Every time Bill Belichick faces the Jets, he dominates them defensively. When these clubs faced each other earlier in the season, the Patriots picked off Zach Wilson four times and should have little trouble manhandling them once again. New England has eight takeaways on the season while the Jets have nine giveaways. If the Patriots can add a few sacks to the overall total, they should be worth the spend.

If you're looking for a super-cheap, dirty, bargain play, then why not give the Jets a look? The games the Patriots have played have all been competitive except for the Jets, so New York is likely looking for some redemption. The Jets pass-rush has been decent and they do have 13 sacks on the year, so if you're paying down, they should be able to steal you a few points.