It was a few short seasons ago that the Orioles were in the playoffs and competitive in those series. Since then though, it’s been a rough road with key pieces being traded or not re-signed and a farm system that hasn’t filled the voids due to missed draft picks or injuries to those high-expectation type arms they’ve drafted. That is starting to turn around now though with a few very good drafts in a row and a new regime that has built a team from nothing to champion and they are laying the groundwork for that in Baltimore. Baltimore is a deceptively deep system highlighted by good draft picks and good trade returns.
Top Prospects In The System
Pos. - C Ht/Wt - 6’2” 216 lbs. Bats: S Throws: R Age: 22
Level - Class-A Drafted - 2019 (1.1) ETA: 2021
Grades: Hit: 60 Power: 60 Run: 40 Arm: 60 Field: 60
Rutschman was a lock to go number one in last year’s draft. He was literally the easiest top pick since Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg in back-to-back years. Why was he? His draft profile: “The only tool that doesn’t grade as a plus skill is his speed, but even for a catcher his 40-grade speed is better than most, giving him four 60-grade tools plus he’s a switch-hitter too. At 6’2” and 216 lbs. he has a great frame to remain behind the plate and the big frame allows him to be a better blocker of balls as there is simply more of him to use to stop the balls with. He is a great receiver and has a surprisingly quick pop time that combined with his plus-arm strength allows him to throw out would-be base stealers at a good clip. Offensively, his bat has improved every year at Oregon State going from a .234/.322/.306 line as a freshman to a .419/.580/.765 line as a junior in 2019 with 57 RBI, 56 runs, and 17 home runs in 55 games this year. His plate discipline is what’s remarkable as he has 153 walks in 183 games in his college career while striking out 116 times. As an overall package, Rutschman has more total tools than any catching prospect in the minors currently,” Rutschman has a chance to be a generational catcher both offensively and defensively and it’s nearly impossible to understate how good he was in college. As good as Buster Posey has been and how highly regarded he was coming of Florida State, Rutschman is better and with four plus-tools he will soon be the best offensive catcher in the majors like J.T. Realmuto minus the steals.
Pos. - RHP Ht/Wt - 6’5” 220 lbs. Bats: L Throws: R Age: 20
Level - Class-A Drafted: 2018 (1.11) ETA: 2022
Grades: Fastball: 65 Slider: 60 Curveball: 50 Changeup: 55 Control: 50
Rodriguez was a bit of a surprise at the 11th overall pick in the 2018 draft, but after his year-plus in pro ball, it looks like that Orioles were ahead of everyone in having confidence in him. The tall, well-built, righty has four pitches that are at least average with three showing plus consistently. The fastball has heavy life and a great downhill plane with his high-three-quarters delivery and it gets on hitters quickly in the upper-90s. The slider sits in the low-80s and is a true out pitch for him that moves in on lefties and away from righties. A mid-70s curveball is a second distinct breaking pitch that is approaching being above-average. His changeup rounds out the arsenal and is mainly used against lefties and occasionally looks like his best secondary pitch. In his first full season at Class-A he pitched 94 innings and posted a 2.68 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP and a 129:36 K:BB ratio. With the combination of stuff, size, and the projectability left in his game, he’s got the upside of a frontline starter in just two more short years.
Pos. - OF Ht/Wt - 6’1” 195 lbs. Bats: R Throws: R Age: 24
Level - Majors Drafted - 2016 (3.91) ETA: 2020
Grades: Hit: 50 Power: 50 Run: 55 Arm: 60 Field: 60
Hays got his first taste of the majors in 2017 and then made it back up in 2019 with his most recent stint being an impressive 21-game sample with a .309 average and four homers while playing spectacular defense. His breakout campaign came in his 2017 Double-A year with 32 homers and 32 doubles in 129 games but since then a variety of ailments have slowed his progress and drop his stat lines down quite a bit. A shoulder, ankle, thumb, and hamstring ailment really cut down his on field time the last couple of years but he got back on pace in 2019 when healthy. The glove is ahead of the bat at the moment but don’t be fooled by that as Hays still makes a lot of contact and barrels up the ball well, though the power is average and plays better as gap-to-gap than full sell out power. Hays doesn’t walk a ton and it will need to be worked on if he really wants to be an impact bat at the major league level. He should resume his role as the starting center fielder in Baltimore at the start of this season but the .309 will likely come back down below the .290 level over the full season with a shot at 20 home runs especially given his home park.
Pos. - 1B Ht/Wt - 6’3” 195 lbs. Bats: R Throws: R Age: 23
Level - Triple-A Drafted - 2015 (1.36) ETA: 2020
Grades: Hit: 55 Power: 55 Run: 45 Arm: 40 Field: 45
Mountcastle has been the guy moved around the diamond the most in his time in the minors in the O’s system. He was drafted as a shortstop and then moved to third base and now has settled as a first baseman for them. Those defensive changes haven’t slowed down the bat at all though as he made Double-A by age 20 and then took home the International League MVP honors in 2019 with a .312 average and 25 homers in 127 games. It’s not shocking to see his bat play though given that that’s been his calling card since he was drafted back in 2015 and it’s been the reason he’s continued to move through the system despite having to be moved around the infield to conceal his defensive deficiencies. Barreling up the baseball is his best ability and it allows him to drive the ball to all fields well and has helped him start tapping into the raw power he possesses. There are concerns that his walk rate has dropped the last couple of years while the strikeout rate has increased and what they may hold in the majors in terms of plate discipline but if he can be just a bit more patient, Mountcastle will be a first baseman that hits for average and power.
Pos. - LHP Ht/Wt - 6’2” 195 lbs. Bats: L Throws: L Age: 21
Level - A-Advanced Drafted - 2017 (1.21) ETA: 2021
Grades: Fastball: 60 Curveball: 55 Changeup: 55 Control: 45
In the 2017 draft, there were two highly regarded prep school lefties coming into the draft. One was taken at third overall in MacKenzie Gore by the Padres, the other was Hall. Since coming into his pro career, the stuff, which was already burgeoning on three plus pitches, has improved in all aspects. The velocity on the fastball has gotten up to 95 comfortably and touches 97 with nice life to it on either side of the plate. The changeup has grown by leaps and bounds and is now considered his best secondary offering and at times is more effective than the fastball at missing bats. The curveball has a great spin rate and bite to it while looking like a strike, until it isn’t and making hitters look silly in the process. Hall has pitched 185.1 innings in the minors to this point including 80.2 at High-A and the southpaw has a 228:106 K:BB ratio, a .201 BAA, and a 2.96 ERA. The only sign of trouble for the young lefty is that his walk rate spiked in 2019 as he had 54 in 80.2 innings though most of that damage came in the first half of the season. Hall’s delivery is smooth and repeatable and in 2020 the kid gloves should come off, really advancing him into the upper minors. The southpaw may be a number two starter if all pans but is at worst a number three member of the rotation.
Prospects To Watch For
OF Age: 23 Double-A ETA: 2021
One of the key pieces of the Manny Machado trade with the Dodgers, Diaz is a Cuban transplant that has some very promising tools, but has yet to put them together just yet. His best tool is having five average or above-average tools and his approach that has led to few strikeouts to this point in the minors. His biggest questions are whether the power will truly show up or not and how much time he can stay on the field as he’s played in fewer and fewer games each of the last three seasons. We’ll start with the power question first. Diaz has hit exactly 11 homers in each of the last three campaigns, but the caveat to that is that he’s played in 30 fewer games a year over that span going from 114 in 2017 to 97 in 2018 to 85 in 2019. So if you pace it out, the power has actually gotten better each year despite the batting average also dropping over that same span. The second question can’t be answered until we see him playing a full season of games without nagging injuries slowing the progress. Overall, he profiles to be an everyday outfielder, likely in left or right field, who should hit for average and at least 20 home runs a year but won’t have much speed as part of his game.
2B/SS Age: 20 Class-A ETA: 2022
Hall came from the Canadian baseball ranks when the O’s drafted him in 2017 and signed him to an above-slot deal. While the beginning of the career started slowly, the breakout happened in 2019 in the South Atlantic League with a .298/.385/.395 slash line with five homers and 33 steals. Speed and a quick bat are the two key tools he possesses offensively while playing a smooth brand of defense in the middle of the infield. At 6’0” and 170 lbs., he should physically be able to stick at short and with more muscle on the frame, the arm strength will also improve a bit, though it’s above-average to begin with. The plus speed also helps the range on defense as well as giving him his main offensive skill. Hall figures to be the throwback middle infielder who hits for a high average and extra base pop while stealing 25-plus bags a season.
RHP Age: 24 Double-A ETA: 2020
The big, 6’4” 225-pound, righty was taken in the 2017 draft in the third round by Baltimore and since then he has been progressing quite quickly through their system. He reached High-A in his first full season and then Double-A in 2019 where he dominated in 13 outings (11 starts) with a 2.31 ERA including a 94-pitch, 10-strikeout, no-hitter. The main pitch as a high-90s fastball with big time late life that carries well deep into starts and he pairs that with a devastating upper-80s slider that qualifies as a plus power variety of the breaking pitch. The changeup and curveball are improving and grade out as average at the moment but if they can keep making strides forward, that’ll go a long way towards him hitting his ceiling of a mid-rotation starter rather than an impact reliever. Baumann’s delivery is simple and repeatable which keeps walks in check and leads to durability as well as a great downhill plane on his pitches.
OF Age: 23 Triple-A ETA: 2020
Now 23, the former fourth-rounder out of the New Hampshire prep ranks has had some trouble making it past Double-A the last season and a half as the batting average just hasn’t been there like it should be given his hit tool and approach. McKenna does instead, use his speed as the main offensive weapon in his game as he stole 25 bags in 2019, though he was caught 11 times dropping his efficiency. While his batting average was .232 in 2019, the OBP was .321 due to the 59 walks he drew in 135 games giving hope that the average will start to rise soon. Defensively the speed and above-average arm suggest he should be able to stick in center field or be a better throwing left fielder than typical. McKenna should start 2020 at Triple-A and if his bat plays early in the season, expect him to get a shot in Baltimore but he will need to be a lot more consistent at the plate to be more than a platoon bat or fourth outfielder.
SS Age: 18 Rookie Ball ETA: 2023
Henderson was a first-round caliber talent in the 2019 draft but due to signability concerns he slipped to the second-round and then signed an above-slot deal. The draft profile reads “Henderson is one of the best bats in the high school ranks in this class as he grades above-average in power, hit, and run tools. Those tools will allow him to play at either short or third as some, including myself, feel that he’s a better fit for defensively as he likely fills out a bit more physically. There is a ton of hard contact that comes from his left-handed swing that produces gap-to-gap power right now but should generate more over-the-fence power as he gets more leverage and loft in that stroke.” After signing, he got his first taste of pro ball in the Gulf Coast League playing 28 games for the rookie ball team. He has as much, if not more, potential as any prospect in the O’s system but his youth drop him down a touch in the rankings, though a big season in 2020 should put him squarely in striking distance of the top-100. Watch him like a hawk as he has the potential to be a plus-average, plus-power, above-average-speed bat at the highest level that will either play short or third in Baltimore while hitting second or third in the order.