2020 MLB Draft Guide: Farm Report: Cincinnati Reds

The Reds are generally one of the teams that continue to fly under the radar even when they make big splashes in the off-season like they’ve done the past couple of years. They’ve also been busy bolstering their farm system through trades and draft picks as well. It hasn’t fully come to fruition just yet, as you can see from the rankings, but the building blocks are there for them to start climbing the ranks very soon.

Top Prospects In The System

Hunter Greene

Pos. - RHP  Ht/Wt - 6’4” 215 lbs.  Bats: R Throws: R Age: 20

Level - Class-A  Drafted - 2017 (1.2)  ETA: 2022

Grades: Fastball: 80 Slider: 55 Curveball: 45 Changeup: 55 Control: 55

Greene was atop the 2017 draft boards for one reason...his absolutely electric fastball. He was clocked at 102 mph as a senior in high school and it wasn’t a fluke as he had a ton of triple-digit fastballs to his credit by the time the draft process wrapped up. The velocity comes easy for him with a repeatable and smooth delivery as well, which gives hope that he can remain on track to develop as a starter. The other pitches in the repertoire are still works in progress with the slider being the best of the bunch and flashes plus from time-to-time. The changeup grade is mostly based on the hope of what it can be and not what it is at the moment which is an average pitch that still needs more depth and fade to improve. The fastball’s calling card is the velocity for sure but the downside with that is that he doesn’t get much, if any, life on it, especially when it’s elevated and then it becomes more hittable even at 97-102 mph. His 2018 campaign was the last time he was on a mound, pitching 68.1 innings at Class-A and posting a 4.48 ERA, 3.29 FIP, 3.13 xFIP, and 11.72 K/9 with a solid 89:23 K:BB ratio. The ERA also lies a bit as he had a stretch between May 24 and July 2 in which he allowed no more than two ER in a start and he gave up 20 of his 34 earned runs allowed in just nine combined innings over four starts. A right elbow strain and subsequent Tommy John surgery cost him the last two months of 2018 and all of 2019 but in 2020 he is ready to retake the mound and continue progressing toward the majors while developing as a top-of-the-rotation starter.

Jonathan India

Pos. - 3B  Ht/Wt - 6’0” 200 lbs.  Bats: R Throws: R Age: 23

Level - Double-A  Drafted: 2018 (1.5)  ETA: 2021

Grades: Hit: 55 Power: 50 Speed: 50 Arm: 55 Field: 55

India used a huge Junior year at the University of Florida to catapult into a top-10 draft candidate in 2018 as his power really showed up and his pitch recognition and plate discipline did too. After a pedestrian intro to pro ball, his 2019 campaign saw him jump from High-A to Double-A and play a total of 121 games while slashing .259/.365/.402/.767 with 11 home runs, 74 runs, 44 RBI, and 11 steals. Much like in college, the more experience he got in pro ball, the better his plate discipline became with a well into the double-digits walk rate and a K-rate just a tick over 20-percent. He’s pretty much physically matured at this point and there is a bit more power to find in his swing with a bit more focus on launch angle but he is close to a finished product right now. He just needs more seasoning in the minors and to find a defensive home since third base is pretty well covered by Eugenio Suárez . He’s seen a handful of games at second and short in his season and a half in pro ball, but ultimately he may need to first base to make the major league roster and get regular at-bats considering the downslide that Joey Votto is on the last couple of seasons. He profiles as a better number two or number five hitter than a typical big bopper and the speed is present for him to steal more than a handful of bases a year.

Nick Lodolo

Pos. - LHP  Ht/Wt - 6’6” 202 lbs.  Bats: L Throws: L Age: 22

Level - Class-A  Drafted - 2019 (1.7)  ETA: 2021

Grades: Fastball: 55 Slider: 55 Changeup: 55 Control: 55

Lodolo was the best pitcher in the 2019 draft class and almost by default had his draft stock raised up into the early first round. That’s not to say that he wasn’t deserving of being a top-10 pick in the draft as this was his draft profile at the time “The southpaw sits 90-94 with his fastball and touches 96 while using his tall, lanky, frame to get a steep downhill plane on the pitch. Lodolo backups the fastball with a tight slider and a nice late-fading changeup. All of the pitches grade as above average offerings and have each improved since his freshman and sophomore campaigns when he was mostly a dependable starter rather than dominant. In 2019, over 15 starts and 98 innings, Lodolo posted a 2.48 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, .202 BAA, and 125:21 K:BB ratio. He is not the typical ace-caliber pitcher that fits in the top of the first round but as the best pitcher in the draft he will be taken this high and still projects as a number two starter.” Once he got into the Reds’ system, he pitched 18.1 innings split between Rookie ball and Class-A and posted a 2.45 ERA, 1.42 FIP, 1.57 xFIP, and a highly impressive 30:0 K:BB ratio. That last part isn’t a typo either. Lodolo should move quickly through the system as he was a pretty polished pitcher out of the college ranks and with this start to his pro career, there’s no reason to doubt the quickness with which he’ll progress. He still projects as a number two starter when all is said and done with a deceptive delivery that helps his stuff play up and miss bats.

Tyler Stephenson

Pos. - C  Ht/Wt - 6’4” 225 lbs.  Bats: R Throws: R Age: 23

Level - Double-A  Drafted - 2015 (1.11) ETA: 2020

Grades: Hit: 50 Power: 50 Run: 40 Arm: 60 Field: 55

Stephenson is one of the top catching prospects in the game at the moment, and for good reason. There is a lot of promise with Stephenson in his ability to hit for average and the upside that his raw power brings. In 89 games at Double-A last year, he slashed .285/.372/.410/.782 with six home runs, 47 runs, and 44 RBI. While the power wasn’t great, he did take a nice amount of walks at a 10.2-percent walk rate and a 16.5-percent K-rate. The slash line was the best of his burgeoning career as well as having the best BABIP, wOBA, and wRC+ marks as well while playing just over half the games in the season. The first two years of his career were shortened by injuries including a concussion, a wrist injury, and a thumb injury which have all slowed his development, namely his ability to hit a breaking pitch. Despite his size, he is a very good defender behind the plate in terms of receiving and blocking though in the last two years he’s thrown out just under 26-percent of wouldbe base stealers, which you’d like to see a bit higher. He also still needs to work on calling games but all of the tools are there for him to be an above-average catcher offensively and defensively. If he can hit a breaking pitch, Stephenson should have 17-20 home run power while continuing to hit for a high average for a catcher.

Jose Garcia

Pos. - SS  Ht/Wt - 6’2” 175 lbs.   Bats: R Throws: R Age: 21

Level - A-Advanced  Signed - July 2017 ETA: 2021

Grades: Hit: 50 Power: 40 Run: 60 Arm: 55 Field: 55

Cincinnati signed Garcia for nearly $5 million in 2017 following his defection from Cuba and then waited 10 months for him to play in a professional game when they sent him straight to Dayton instead of rookie ball. After a solid first year, he was bumped up to High-A for 2019 and slashed .280/.343/.436/.779 with a .329 BABIP and .358 wOBA in 104 games with eight home runs, 58 runs, 55 RBI, and 15 steals. One thing to note is that his ability to steal bases improved between the two years as he went 15 of 17 in 2019 compared to 13 of 22 in 2018 over 125. Garcia generally possesses a line drive stroke that occasionally puts the ball over the fence, but the 40-grade power, which may improve to 45 with more weight, won’t produce much in the long term. His best tool is the speed he has that ranks as plus and should remain about the same even with more weight on the frame. The Reds concern however, is that he may outgrow the position if he continues to mature the way he has been, however that’s not the biggest issue as he played 2B for the Cuban National team that he was on which he could move to if shortstop doesn’t work out, though that’s unlikely. When all is said and done, he should be a .275 hitter with enough speed to steal 25 or so bags while playing an above-average defensive shortstop or keystone.

Prospects To Watch For

Mike Siani

OF Age: 20 Class-A ETA: 2022

Siani was drafted in the fourth round of the 2018 June draft and then signed a $2 million deal to forgo a commitment to UVA. He’s a toolsy outfield prospect but he fell not only because of the UVA commitment but also because of the tweak he made to his swing in his senior season of high school which concerned some scouts. There are some questions about exactly how good his hit tool will be but to me he’ll be just a tick below average with it but above-average to plus in all of the other tools including his best one at speed. Speaking of speed, the 121 games that he played at Dayton in 2019 saw him swipe 45 bags on 60 attempts while hitting .253/.333/.339 at the dish with six homers, 75 runs, and 39 RBI closing out his stat line. Defensively, last year it was a show for Siani as he played 118 games in the outfield and had 18 outfield assists and six double plays which is off the charts good. The arm is a cannon and a weapon and if his bat keeps up with the other tools, including tapping into the raw power in his left-handed stroke, he will quickly rise through the ranks of the Reds system and overall ranks.

Tyler Callihan

2B/3B Age: 19 Rookie ETA: 2023

Callihan was taken in the third round of the 2019 draft out of the prep ranks and then signed to a near-double slot value of $1.5-million to keep him from going to South Carolina. That should tell you right away what they think of the skills and talent that they found in Callihan. They announced him as a second baseman when they drafted him but he played mostly third base in his pro debut split between the Appalachian League and Pioneer League. In that debut he slashed .263/.298/.442 with six homers, 33 RBI, 30 runs, and 11 steals in 57 games. WIthin his skill set, there’s a 55-grade Hit tool, a 50-grade Power tool, a 45-grade run tool, a 50-grade Arm tool, and 45-50-grade Field tool which pretty well fits either spot they want to put him at going forward though it’s still early in his development being fresh out of the prep ranks. Callihan has a great affinity for barreling up the ball for very good contact which also makes his hit and power tools play up a bit more though to make it really play up, he’ll want to work on his walk rates and patience in his approach as me moves through the system. Callihan likely slots into the keystone spot in the future given the depth at third they have at the moment and in the system ahead of him and a power-hitting second baseman at GABP has nice fantasy ring to it.

Tyler Callihan
Neptune Beach
Providence HS pic.twitter.com/oPM7O0nSwf

— Jason@theGame (@Jasenelpartido) July 15, 2018

Stuart Fairchild

OF Age: 23 Double-A ETA: 2020

The outfielder was a second round pick in the 2017 draft and has since moved at two levels a year since 2018 and now made it to Double-A halfway through 2019. He’s the type of player that isn’t necessarily going to wow you with any one or two particular tools but when you look at the whole package you have the makings of a very solid baseball player. In the 109 games he played in 2019 between High-A and Double-A, he slashed .264/.352/.441 with 12 homers, 57 runs, 54 RBI, and six steals while playing very good defense with just one error in the span and three outfield assists. He’s got the makings of a reliable fourth outfield type or low-tier starter given that he doesn’t have the typical power of a corner outfielder or the speed of a centerfielder.

#Reds OFer Stuart Fairchild with the hustle double pic.twitter.com/5ddZMPOIut

— Jonathan Mayo (@JonathanMayo) October 20, 2019

Antonio Santillan

RHP Age: 22 Double-A ETA: 2020

The former second round pick in 2015 was taken out of the Texas high school ranks as a power-throwing righty who was a big, sturdy, potential frontline starter. Like most prep arms, it took him a bit to really harness his stuff and since the middle of 2017, he’s been making improvements consistently since, leading the organizations Minor League Pitcher of the Year honor in 2018. This past season saw him take a step back though over 102.1 innings at Double-A pitching to a 4.84 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 4.56 xFIP, 8.09 K/9 and 4.75 BB/9. All of those numbers are substantially worse than 2018. The arsenal is a three-pitch mix with a 70-grade fastball, 55-grade slider, and 50-grade changeup. The fastball sits 93-97 that has tight, late movement to it and keeps the velocity deep into starts. The changeup has seen big improvements getting closer to being thrown from the same arm slot and arm speed as the fastball while the slider is the secondary with the highest ceiling but most inconsistency in it in terms of control and command but the movement is formidable. While he has the stuff to still be a frontline starter, the inconsistency has knocked him down some pegs in terms of development time, hence being 22 and just reaching Double-A. He needs to take a big jump forward in 2020 if he wants to realize his full upside and not just being a mid-to-backend rotation arm or a bullpen piece.

Rece Hinds

3B Age: 19 Rookie Ball ETA: 2023

Hinds was taken in the second round of last year’s draft out of the IMG Academy where he put on a show blasting the ball over the fence consistently and then again at the All-Star Break High School Home Run Derby as well. The problem though, is that there are concerns about the hit tool being good enough to allow him to make contact regularly enough to show off the plus power tool. There’s also questions about his defense long-term at third base or the outfield meaning he may be relegated to be a big bopper type at first or more of a DH-type. Hinds has also shown trouble early in his pro career and late in his high-school career with recognizing spin on pitches and having a bunch of swing-and-miss in his game to this point. If the patience and pitch recognition improves, there’s hope the hit tool can become a fringe-average tool and the power will make more appearances in games instead of just batting practice which would clearly delight the Reds’ front office quite a bit.

Rece Hinds is a grown ass man ???? pic.twitter.com/gSLuo1U8eb

— Jason@theGame (@Jasenelpartido) March 15, 2019