2020 MLB Draft Guide: Farm Report: Colorado Rockies

What a rough offseason it’s been for the Rockies between not signing a single free agent or making any trades and frustrating their star player in Nolan Arenado with them discussing trades with other teams despite him having a full no-trade clause in his deal. Their talent has almost exclusively been home-grown for the Rockies, especially in the pitching department since they have to overpay for top-notch free agents to come to Denver. The farm system has churned out some fairly notable players nowadays and some of that next crop are working their way through the system right now. It’s a system that has some bright spots but a lot of works in progress remain.

Top Prospects In The System

Brendan Rodgers

Pos. - 2B  Ht/Wt - 6’0” 180 lbs.  Bats: R Throws: R Age: 23

Level - Majors  Drafted - 2015 (1.3)  ETA: 2020

Grades: Hit: 60 Power: 55 Speed: 45 Arm: 55 Field: 50

Rodgers has been the top prospect for the Rockies for a few years now and with good reason as he’s the typical power-hitter, high-average middle infielder they seek to draft year-after-year. The grades on his tools indicate that he’s precisely that with a plus-hit tool and an above-average power tool. In his most recent stop in the minors at Triple-A Albuquerque showed promising stats, though it was in the PCL, the ultimate hitter’s league, with a .312 average in 59 games with nine homers, 39 runs, and 26 RBI. While playing most of a season at Double-A in 2018, in a decidedly non-friendly hitting environment, he slashed .275/.342/.493 with a .301 BABIP and a .369 wOBA with 17 home runs, 62 RBI, 49 runs, and 12 steals in 95 games. Once more he showed to be the type of middle infielder we associate with the Rockies at this point. His first taste of the majors didn’t go all that well to be certain, however, it wasn’t entirely of his own making as he was routinely swapped in and out of the lineup at the second base spot. This year if he performs well at camp, he should seal up the starting second base spot from the jump and the numbers will bounce back up to between Double-A and Triple-A numbers though the steals won’t be there.

Colton Welker

Pos. - 3B  Ht/Wt - 6’1” 195 lbs.  Bats: R Throws: R Age: 22

Level - Double-A  Drafted - 2016 (4.110)  ETA: 2021

Grades: Hit: 55 Power: 50 Speed: 30 Arm: 55 Field: 50

Welker was taken in the fourth round of the 2016 draft out of the prep school ranks of Florida and signed for an over-slot deal because the Rockies had so much faith in him early. It paid off quickly as he won a California League batting title in 2018 hitting .333 in 114 games at High-A with a .383 OBP and a .395 BABIP with 13 home runs, 82 RBI, 74 runs, and five steals. The steals are more indicative of his instincts on the basepaths rather than his speed which is below-average to be sure. In 2019, bumped up to Double-A Hartford, The slash line took a bit of a hit, but again it’s more advanced and less of a hitter’s environment, posting at .252/.313/.408 with a .281 BABIP and 10 home runs, 53 RBI, 37 runs, and two steals. The glove has been the part of the game that’s taken the most time to come around, but now there’s belief in the organization that he can be more than a competent defender at the hot corner from the glove side of things as his arm has always been strong enough to make the longest throw in the infield. Welker will likely start at Double-A again in 2020 to try and bump up the averages a bit, though his 17.1-percent K-rate and 8.1-percent BB-rate were both very good. He profiles as a guy who should hit .280 or higher with 25-home-run pop while likely moving to first base depending on what happens with Nolan Arenado in the trade talks.

Sam Hilliard

Pos. - OF  Ht/Wt - 6’5” 238 lbs.  Bats: L Throws: L Age: 25

Level - Majors Drafted - 2015 (15.437)  ETA: 2019

Grades: Hit: 40 Power: 55 Run: 60 Arm: 60 Field: 55

Hilliard, like Rodgers, got a taste of the majors last year with 27 games and in that time he opened some eyes with seven homers, two steals, and a .273 AVG in those 77 at-bats. The main skill from Hilliard is the speed he brings with him as he has stolen no fewer than 23 bags in seasons with at least 121 games played including a couple of 30-steal years. It’s unusual to see a guy as big as Hilliard have as much speed as he has, but it’s been consistent throughout his career and it’s what’s made him a candidate for starting center fielder as early as the start of this year. The hit tool isn’t great to be sure, but if he can keep it in the .260 range and show the 9.5-percent walk rate he’s had the last few years in the upper minors, he’ll get on base enough to be valuable in the steals department and the power is there for the lefty to be a 22-25 home run bat. If he can produce a 20-20 caliber season, there’s only a handful of guys capable of that in baseball the last few years. The downside is the age as he’s 25 already and that reduces the long-term appeal for him in some formats to be sure.

Aaron Schunk

Pos. - 3B  Ht/Wt - 6’2” 205 lbs.   Bats: R Throws: R Age: 22

Level - A-Short  Drafted - 2019 (2.62)  ETA: 2022

Grades: Hit: 50 Power: 45 Speed: 45 Arm: 60 Field: 55

Schunk was a rare two-way player at UGA as he was a star third baseman, and the closer for the Bulldogs who ranked among saves leaders in D-I baseball. That being said, he was drafted for his skills in the batter’s box and not on the mound and he’s made the most of that with a .306/.370/.503 slash line in 46 games at Short-A with six home runs, 31 runs, 23 RBI, and four steals. Right now he has more of a line-drive type swing that doesn’t get a lot of launch angle to really up his home run totals moving forward but he does make a lot of good contact and his ability to put a barrel on the ball is what excited scouts about him coming out of Georgia. The other slight issue is that he makes so much good contact that he takes fewer walks than he should but he also doesn’t swing and miss much either. Schunk is above-average on the defensive side both in glove work and arm strength which adds to his viability at third base. However, a long-term move to left field is likely heading his way considering that Arenado and Welker are both ahead of him in the system at the moment. Even with the move coming, he profiles as a .270 hitter with 20 home run potential if the leverage in his swing gets better but he’ll need to improve his pitch taking if he hopes to really bump up his OBP going forward.

Ryan Rolison

Pos. - LHP  Ht/Wt - 6’2” 195 lbs.  Bats: R Throws: L Age: 22

Level - A-Advanced  Drafted - 2018 (1.22)  ETA: 2022

Grades: Fastball: 55 Curveball: 60 Slider: 50 Changeup: 50 Control: 55

Rolison is the third left-handed college pitcher the Rockies have taken in the first round of the last eight drafts as they are trying to boost the pitching in their system so they don’t have to pay big money for arms in free agency and their homegrown arms get used to pitching at altitude before getting to Coors. Rolison has advanced to High-A, and pitched there for a full season in 2019 as they expected he’d be a quick riser given his feel for pitching and stuff. However, the year at High-A wasn’t where they expected to be. In 116.1 innings, he posted a 4.87 ERA (5.12 FIP, 4.05 xFIP), a .275 BAA, and 1.44 WHIP. While the K-rate and BB-rate were good at 23.5-percent and 7.5-percent respectively it was clear that he was hit harder than the stuff suggests he should’ve been. Speaking of the stuff he has a 91-93 mph heater that he works well to both sides of the plate and the main pitch is a plus-curveball that was arguably the best one in his draft class with great depth and break to it. The other two pitches are at least MLB average in the slider and changeup with the slider being a tick ahead of the changeup at the moment. He needs to keep the command up as he progresses to make his stuff play up and miss bats but he will also need to mix the pitches a bit better than he did in college and rookie ball. Ultimately he’s a mid-rotation starter in the making as a solid lefty who won’t strike out as many as you’d like to see from a frontline starter.

Prospects To Watch For

Michael Toglia

1B Age: 21 Short-A ETA: 2022

He was taken as the Rockies first-round pick in the 2019 draft at 23rd overall three years after drafting him later in the draft as a high school prospect. He emerged as one of the better bats in the college ranks for this class out of UCLA as a 6’5” first baseman with a good power stroke that’s just been inconsistent in showing up to this point. In 2019 at Boise, he slashed .248/.369/.483 in 41 games with nine home runs, 26 RBI, 25 runs, and a steal but he also had seven doubles in that span too. The power is real with him, as it grades as a 55-grade skill and the frame at his height and 226 pounds suggests that there should be power lingering there with the tricky being get it to show up more in games. The defense at first base is gold glove caliber with Toglia and the feel for hitting means the average should raise a bit as he continues to develop. An everyday producer at first base with an average hit tool and 25+ home run power who will always play thanks to his defense is what he projects at long-term.

.@CliffFloyd30 sees a little bit of Mike Moustakas at the plate when he watches Michael Toglia. @Rockies #MLBDraft pic.twitter.com/iVO8iyW8Ms

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) June 4, 2019

Julio Carreras

3B/SS Age: 20 Rookie Ball ETA: 2023

Colorado signed Carreras to just a $15,000 deal in the 2017-18 international signing period in February of 2018. Since that time, in the DSL and first taste state-side in the Gulf Coast League, he’s proven to be worth a lot more than that as in in 2019 in 67 games, he slashed .294/.369/.466 with five home runs, 51 runs, 38 RBI, and 14 steals while drawing walks at a healthy 8.1-percent clip. The 6’2” frame has room for a bit more weight to add to his current 190 pounds, and that will add power to his game and likely grade him out as an above-average power hitter from the right side of the plate. The opposite side of that is he could lose a step with a more mature frame and that’ll knock him from a 60-grade speed guy to 55-grade which is still quick enough to at least bring 15 steals a year to his game. Carreras has played second, third, and short since being a pro but his natural spot is likely the hot corner with a plus arm and the power coming, but shortstop is likely the second spot if there’s a backlog at third base. There is a ton of development left with this 20-year-old raw prospect but the tool kit is there for him to be a 25-15 infielder who’ll hit .280 and that makes him an intriguing go to follow for dynasty leagues.

Brenton Doyle

OF Age: 21 Rookie Ball ETA: 2024

Doyle was taken in the fourth round of the 2019 draft out of a tiny D-II school in Shepherd College which hasn’t seen a pro player since 1967. Doyle has two plus tools that piqued scout’s interest in his raw power and his speed which both grade out at 60 on the 20-80 scale. The hit tool is between a 45-50 depending on who you talk to but either way, he’s got just about an average ability to make contact on a regular basis. After getting drafted he was sent to Grand Junction in the Pioneer League and played 51 games there and actually won the batting title with a .383 in 180 at-bats. He also added eight homers, 42 runs, 33 RBI, and 17 steals in that time too. Let’s not get too carried away with the exciting start to his pro career, but it’s clear the tools are there already for Doyle though he does need some refinement as there is still too much swing-and-miss in his game with 47 strikeouts in those 51 games but he did also draw 31 walks which is also nice to see. He’s a natural centerfielder and his 6’3” and 200 lb. frame doesn’t need much more maturing so his speed should stick around and that’ll play well in the large confines that are the Coors Field outfield.

Grant Lavigne

1B Age: 20 Class A ETA: 2022

Lavigne was drafted out of the New Hampshire High School ranks in the Competitive Balance A of the 2018 June draft. There haven’t been many players from New Hampshire to get picked and so far no high schooler draftee from the state has made the majors. Lavigne is different though as he’s got above-average raw power, at least an average hit tool and above-average defense at first base. He got the first taste of full-season ball in 2019 at Class-A Asheville playing 126 games and slashing .236/.347/.327 with seven home runs, 64 RBI, 52 R, and eight steals. The biggest issues that showed themselves in that campaign were his ability to draw walks as he had 68 of them. However, he was also too patient at times and let hittable pitches go and then was forced to swing at worse ones with two strikes resulting in 129 Ks on the year (or more than one a game). It’s a tough balance between being too aggressive and too patient and often times younger players have a hard time figuring out that balance early in their careers. Lavigne has impressive bat tools and those will carry him through the system just as soon as he gets back on the right track.

Tyler Nevin

1B Age: 22 Double-A ETA: 2021

Nevin was taken by the Rockies in the Competitive Balance Round A in 2015 and is the son of former big leaguer Phil Nevin. When he’s been on the field, he’s shown the bat skills that made him a high draft pick with a 50-grade hit tool, 50-grade power, and slightly above-average fielding skills. Injuries have kept him off the field for nearly two years from 2016-17 and then advanced to Double-A in 2019 for a 130-game season at Hartford. In those games, he slashed .251/.345/.399 with 13 home runs, 61 RBI, 60 runs, and six steals but it was a touch worse than the Rockies were hoping for, despite Hartford being known as not the best hitter’s park in the Double-A ranks. It was still enough for the Rockies to put him on the 40-man roster at the end of the year, however, mainly to protect him in the Rule 5 draft in December. Aside from playing most of his time at first base, he did get time at third base and in the outfield as the Rockies contemplate making him a super-utility option for when they call him up but his main path to the majors is first base as a right-handed power-hitting corner infielder.