Houston has been known as a great scouting organization for a while now, so much so that there was that federal case a few years ago about their info being stolen. That has led them to have a very well-respected farm system for quite some time, but that doesn’t mean it hasn’t slipped in the past year or two. The slipping is mainly from calling up a few of their top guys and trading a handful away to get major league talent in return. The major league team is clearly competitive as they’ve been to two of the last three World Series, but with recent punishments handed out, they might be in a tougher spot than they are now a few years from now.

Org. Rank (100): 19

Division Rank (100): 3rd

Top-100 Prospects: 2

Org. Rank (300): 24

Division Rank (300): 5th

Top-300 Prospects: 8

Affiliate

Level

League

DSL Astros

Rookie Summer League

Dominican Summer League

GCL Astros

Rookie League

Gulf Coast League

Tri-City ValleyCats

Short-Season A

New York-Penn League

Quad Cities River Bandits

Class A

Midwest League

Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Class A-Advanced

Carolina League

Corpus Christi Hooks

Double-A

Texas League

Round Rock Express

Triple-A

Pacific Coast League

 

Top Prospects In The System

Forrest Whitley

Pos. - RHP  Ht/Wt - 6’7” 195 lbs.  Bats: R Throws: R Age: 22

Level - Triple-A  Drafted - 2016 (1.17)  ETA: 2020

Grades: Fastball: 60 Slider: 55 Curveball: 60 Changeup: 55 Cutter: 55 Control: 45

Whitley was one of the top prep arms in his draft class when Houston selected him 17th overall in 2016. Since then he’s been steadily climbing the ranks of the system, though it’s not like it’s been a smooth climb for the righty. The most innings he’s put up in a year to this point is just 92.1 in 2017 across three levels of Class-A, Advanced-A, and finishing up at Double-A. After that, he was suspended for a good chunk of the 2018 season due to a failed drug test and then an injury ended it not long after he returned. The 2019 campaign was all about getting back on track, though not well as the first trip to Triple-A and the PCL didn’t go well for him in the least. He pitched 24.1 innings and posted a 12.21 ERA (8.07 FIP) but did have an impressive 10.73 K/9. What really got him in trouble was his 5.55 BB/9 and 3.33 HR/9 rates. He wound up going back down to Double-A where the numbers improved a touch in 22.2 innings with a 5.56 ERA (4.33 FIP) and 0.79 HR/9 rate. Both the K/9 and BB/9 rates went up though to 14.29 and 7.53 respectively. The stuff is all there with potential for five plus-pitches in the arsenal as well as the velocity as the fastball easily sits in the upper-90s. However, the control can get the best of him at times and the setback he had in Double-A and Triple-A this past year will certainly cause him to spend more time than anticipated in the minors. Ultimately he should be the next ace-caliber pitcher for the Astros and at worst is a high-strikeout number two starter.

Jose Urquidy

Pos. - RHP  Ht/Wt - 6’0” 180 lbs.  Bats: R Throws: R Age: 24

Level - Majors  Signed - March 2015  ETA: 2019

Grades: Fastball: 55 Slider: 50 Curveball: 50 Changeup: 60 Control: 60

We all saw what Urquidy is capable of on a major league mound down the stretch and in the playoffs last year, especially in the World Series. He’s been under the radar for most of his time in the minors but that clearly changed with his 2019 campaign that had him jump from Double-A to Triple-A to the majors while putting up solid stats at each level. His best pitch is the plus-changeup that has great fade and depth to it while being thrown out of the same arm slot with the same arm speed as the fastball. In fact, the fastball plays off of the changeup and actually plays up because of it even though it sits in the lower-90s but does have good arm-side run. The breaking pitches are still coming around following the elbow reconstruction a couple of seasons ago but when those meet their potential, they should be at least major league average pitches giving him a solid four-pitch mix. He won’t be the highest strikeout guy, but a mid-rotation spot is what he can hold down well with the way he attacks hitters with his repertoire.

Abraham Toro

Pos. - 3B  Ht/Wt - 6’1” 190 lbs.  Bats: S Throws: R Age: 23

Level - Majors  Drafted - 2016 (5.157) ETA: 2019

Grades: Hit: 55 Power: 55 Run: 60 Arm: 60 Field: 45

Another one of the top prospects in their system that got a taste of the majors last year was Toro who played 25 games in Houston. That was his third level of the year after starting in Double-A and hoping through Triple-A in 16 games. The switch-hitter has a more pronounced upper-cut type path from the right side of the plate and a more line-drive centered swing from the left side. To this point, he hasn’t fully leveraged his swing plane as he’s yet to top 20 home runs in a season but has been at 15 or more for three straight years. The defense right now his is calling card as he posted just nine errors in nearly 140 games last year while playing third, second, and a bit of first as well. For a guy with two different swing planes, he doesn’t strike out that much as his career mark is less than 20-percent of the time while reaching double-digit walk rates too. If he can figure out how to cut down on the ground ball rate, and increase the line drive rate, he’ll raise the average up to the .270-.280 range where it should be regularly and he’ll increase the home run totals as well. At the moment he is a bit blocked by the major league roster but all it should take is an injury to Carlos Correa again for him to get another extended look.

Bryan Abreu

Pos. - RHP  Ht/Wt - 6’1” 204 lbs.   Bats: R Throws: R Age: 22

Level - Double-A  Signed - 2013 ETA: 2020

Grades: Fastball: 60 Curveball: 70 Slider: 60 Changeup: 45 Control: 40

After five years of playing at the rookie ball level, the raw international signee is finally beginning to climb the ranks of the Astros’ system, pitching mainly at Double-A last year with a cup of coffee in the majors. Despite the fact that he has three plus or double-plus pitches, as you can see above, he has spent his entire pro career being used switching between a starter and a reliever as evidenced by his having pitched 95 games with 43 starts amongst those appearances. The reason for the switching back and forth is because of the stuff he possesses but also his lack of control; only a third of his professional innings have seen a walk rate under 4.0 per nine innings. He has a simple and repeatable delivery, the problem is that the release point tends to vary per pitch which limits the control quite a bit, which down plays the stuff he has since it can’t be as effective if no one knows where it’s winding up. If he can sort out the control issues, he should be able to be a mid-rotation starter, so long as he builds up the innings that is since last year’s 100 IP was the most he’d had in a season since turning pro.

Jeremy Pena

Pos. - SS  Ht/Wt - 6’0” 179 lbs.  Bats: R Throws: R Age: 22

Level - A-Advanced  Drafted - 2018 (3.102)  ETA: 2022

Grades: Hit: 50 Power: 45 Run: 60 Arm: 50 Field: 60

Drafted out of the University of Maine in 2018, the shortstop has already gone through three levels of the Astros’ system. He is more in the mold of an old school middle infielder in which the hit and speed tools are the better tools for him rather than having the power we’re seeing now. His first full year of pro ball in 2019, was a very productive one as he went from A-ball to Advanced-A in 109 games with 409 at-bats. In those at-bats, Pena slashed .303/.385/.440 with an .824 OPS, seven home runs, 72 runs, 54 RBI, and 20 steals. He took a fair amount of walks with a near 10-percent BB-rate and struck out just 18-percent of the time. His top skills right now are the speed and defense he shows as the 20 steals pace-out to 30 in 162 games with 107 runs. The hit tool grades out as just average right now, and it plays up in the lower minors without breaking pitches being a big part of the pitcher's pitch mix. As he continues to progress through the Astros’ system, he should stay at shortstop and his average should stay around the .280 mark and he should continue to be a 25-plus steal threat per year with 10-12 homers.

Prospects To Watch For

Tyler Ivey

RHP Age: 23 Double-A ETA: 2020

Ivey was a third-round selection of the Astros in the 2017 draft after being ranked the 302nd prospect in that draft class by multiple sources. Ivey is a righty that has a very good four-pitch mix with all of them being at least major-league average offerings and his curveball being a plus-pitch already. The fastball sits in the mid-90s and has nice downhill plane and late life to it and it helps the slider and the curveball play up as they both have tight rotation and the curveball is a true hammer in the upper-70s. The changeup has good depth but is his fourth-best pitch at this point. Ivey is purportedly trying to work on a cutter, but that is a well-below-average pitch still and he likely drops it all together going forward. He was slowed by injury in 2019, pitching only 52 innings after a 112-inning campaign in 2018. In those 112 innings, split between Class-A and Advanced-A he posted a 2.98 ERA, 2.40 FIP, 2.69 xFIP, 29.7-percent K-rate, 6.4-percent BB-rate, 1.03 WHIP, and a great .203 BAA. The only concern with Ivey reaching his potential of a low-end number two starter or high-end number three starter is his herky-jerky delivery that may not be as repeatable as you’d like to see and may lead to more injuries, but right now the control and strike-throwing is there to make him someone to watch.

 

 

Dauri Lorenzo

SS Age: 17 Unassigned ETA: 2025

Lorenzo was signed in July in 2019 as the 13th-ranked international prospect in that year’s class. He’s a switch-hitting shortstop who exhibits a smooth, short, stroke from both sides of the plate and right now it’s geared towards line-drive power. The hope is that as he matures and plays in a more structured system, the power in the stroke will show up in earnest though the ability to barrel up a ball is already there in spades. On defense, he’s smooth with his live arm and the instincts are very sound already. He does need to improve the footwork at shortstop but that will come in time. While he is a long way away from being a finished product, the tools are there for him to be a very intriguing prospect in a few years.

 

 

Yohander Martinez

SS Age: 18 Rookie ETA: 2024

The young shortstop was signed in 2018 as part of the international class and then in 2019 he got his first taste of pro ball in rookie ball with 66 games. In that span he slashed .313/.439/.383 with one home run, 36 runs, 25 RBI, and 19 steals. Once again his stat line shows the initial skillset for the 18-year-old middle infielder in that he’s a good bat-to-ball hitter with a line-drive stroke that generates mainly gap-to-gap power and not much over-the-fence power and then he uses his speed to move around the bases with a nice ability to steal bags. The power could come for him eventually with more reps and more strength to his frame but even if it doesn’t he has good speed and defensive skills.

Freudis Nova

SS Age: 20 A-ball ETA: 2022

Nova was one of the last international signees to get a big bonus under Jeff Luhnow when he signed in 2016. Since then he’s done rookie ball twice and A-ball once for a combined 163 games and 594 at-bats. In that time he slashed .268/.320/.389/.709 with 13 homers, 86 runs, 73 RBI, and 27 steals. The hit tool probably tops out at about 45 for him but he has plus raw power he’s still learning to tap into and the speed is about average and he’ll lose a step as he continues to mature and develop. The .260 average is about what he’ll bring to the table but the home runs and steals totals should flip flop as he moves up.

 

 

Cristian Javier

RHP Age: 22 Triple-A ETA: 2020

Javier was signed in 2015 a week before turning 18 and since then has been chugging along in the Astros system, working on his craft. In his most recent season, 2019, he went from Advanced-A to Triple-A over a combined 113.2 innings with 1.74 ERA, 2.94 FIP, 3.49 xFIP, and a 37.3-percent K-rate though he did have a 4.07 BB/9 mark as well. He was also an extreme fly ball pitcher at 51.6-percent while only having 28.3-percent of balls hit on the ground. The fastball is his base pitch but his curveball is actually the best offering in his four-pitch arsenal and he works both to either side of the plate very well. The slider and changeup keep hitters honest and the slider is at least an above-average pitch in and of itself. The righty has the makings of a mid-rotation starter but if he can cut down on the walks and get a bit more control, the stuff plays as a number two type starter as well. Houston might see him later this year given their need for starters with the rotation they have in place to start the 2020 campaign after he gets more seasoning at Triple-A Round Rock.