NASCAR DFS Go Bowling At The Glen Playbook: Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman Looking For Win

He needs a win, is at a road course, and one that he’s won at multiple times. The script is set for Elliott to shine and lock his way into the playoffs. The only thing standing in his way is the 14 drivers starting closer to the front than he is. The 9-car has had better speed this weekend than he had last weekend at Indy Road where he finished P2 and was gaining on McDowell late in the race. Expect him to be a very popular option across the board this week despite the high price tag.

Larson is going for a three-peat here. That’s something that hasn’t happened since 1999 at Watkins Glen. Starting in a spot representative of his car number, and with speed to back that up as well, he certainly has a shot to pull that off. We’re basically hoping to see what he pulled off in Chicago in terms of scoring plus perhaps some laps led or fastest laps. For what it’s worth, Edward Raus took a Larson Top-3 Finish as his prop bet for the Grill vs. Grille video this week.

It’s hard to not make this as copy and paste of Chase Elliott’s analysis, aside of course from MTJ having wins under his fire suit this year. He won at Sonoma, had good speed at Indy Road, and appears to have better speed than his qualifying spot suggests this weekend. If MTJ shows up how we expect him to at road courses — considering he has four road races wins — it will make him incredibly popular for cash games and GPPs alike. He has a shot at a top-five along with fastest laps and a ton of PD.

We’re all still waiting for Reddick to show the race winning dominance we’ve seen over the last year and change. Last week was a start but since dominating at COTA, it’s been few and far between to see that form. Starting inside the top-10 should give him the ability to hang out there much of the day and challenge for a win. However, we’re going to need to see a top-five finish and fastest laps or laps led to bolster the score too. That might be too much to ask for which makes him a better GPP option still.

To be honest, I was waffling between Busch and Christopher Bell, just above him in the pricing, however, the lean goes to Busch. Here’s why. Firstly, aside from Indy last week, Busch has been very good in the 8-car at road courses this year including two runners-up finishes. Secondly, the practice speed this weekend is a tick better than Bell. Couple that with a slightly cheaper price, slightly better starting spot for PD, and a recency bias and Busch is the better option. There’s also the fact that the betting world seems to be on Bell this week so we’re going a bit against the grain with Busch being the choice of the two.

He won last week and dominated. It wasn’t a questionable win by any means or one that needed strategy and a pair of teammates wrecking to get him there (Daytona 500 comes to mind). It shouldn’t be a shock that he won though. He’s long been known for his road course bona fides and now it appears that speed is back in the 34-car. McDowell is starting P3 which keeps him in a position to go back-to-back in impressive fashion. It’s likely he won’t be under-the-radar this week though like he was last week.

It’s a road course and it’s Allmendinger. This is like PB&J. They just go together. Last week it didn’t gel, that’s for sure, but this is a new week and he seems to be much happier and more comfortable in the 16-car. A lurking Allmendinger with a fast car on a road course and needing a win could be a serious threat all day IRL and DFS.

Hamlin is on the pole for Sunday and typically that’s been good for DFS here. He could easily set the pace early and lead the first chunk of laps. That is until the first pit stops happen and then it’ll likely shift him back a few spots. That’s the risk here, he’s not guaranteed to just run out and hide even in a caution-free race. So like normal, we’re more comfortable with Hamlin in GPPs but could be talked into getting some exposure to him in cash games in line with the field.

Wow was Willy B fast on Saturday? His speed wasn’t just relegated to short runs either as his 10-lap average was very consistently at the top of the charts. He then went out and backed it up with a P2 starting spot. Byron doesn’t have a lot on the line this weekend as his four wins are best in the series but that won’t stop him from being an early laps led dominator with a good chance at a fifth win. The only concern here is if Chase Elliott is chasing him down late in the race and Hendrick pulls strings to get Elliott the win.

We’ve seen Gibbs run well at road courses previously, though last week might not be one. He’s still looking for a win to make the playoffs in his rookie year and starting this close to the front has to help his chances. The speed in the car is still a bit unsettled but given the Toyota camp is one of the best ones at finding speed during races, that’s bound to play into his favor as well. There’s also the fact that he got extra track time by running the Xfinity Series race on Saturday. While they’re different cars, time behind the wheel still has to help overall. Look for him to be a sneaky play for holding a top-five spot at the race’s end.

How many times do we have to say that he’s a road course specialist right now? He’s proven that over the last two years and even without great speed in Indy, he still moved up decently in a caution-free race. We’re looking at similar circumstances this weekend again with a P17 starting spot and middling speed. His ability behind the wheel on a track like this will make that speed play up so to speak and get him a better finish than most might think possible.

It might be surprising but Bowman still needs a win to make the playoffs. He’s also pretty much out of the question for making it on points. Things haven’t been great since returning from the back injury but, he did show good form at Indy a week ago. Bowman finished P5 after starting P9 and at both Sonoma and COTA he ran well as well. If he can show the form he had a week ago, well he likely doesn’t win, but he’s still a high-quality option in both formats for DFS.

Logano is in a bit of a sneaky spot this week. He’s not done a ton on road courses this year, either finishing P8 or better or P28 or worse. However, the price and the starting spot mean he could be in a sweet spot for leverage in GPPs. The speed appears decent in the 22-car and the P11 starting spot is probably a tad higher than people wanted to see him starting. There’s also the fact that drivers priced around him are starting further back, including his teammate Ryan Blaney, which might intrigue people into the PD plays rather than good finish position options. If he shows up here like he has the last two years or even like he did at Sonoma this year, there is value here.

Dan and I discussed Harvick on the podcast and our strategies for him. Basically, it boils down to this, we’re liking him for cash games this week for the PD upside he has, though that’s muted a bit with the lack of speed in SHR cars. We’re not playing him in GPPs as a leverage play over the field. He plodded through the Indy race a week ago and nabbed 15 spots of PD. He doesn’t have that much available to him this weekend though which limits his upside for GPPs. If he picks up 10 spots on the track he’ll post enough points to make him valuable in cash games.

It wasn’t a great day at Indy for Gilliland despite the speed he’d shown in practice. This week he qualified P25 but still ran a tad faster than that at practice. The Front Row cars have been racy on road setups this year and Gilliland has nabbed two top-20s on them. While he did miss that at Sonoma, he did move up eight spots from a P32 starting spot. We have to get creative with budget plays this week with the pricing and Gilliland might get overlooked a bit after last week.

We’ll give him a pass for last week. He had a transmission issue that hampered him almost immediately after the race started. Hard to move up when you can shift the car. This week though, he’s starting in a similar spot and should have similar speed in the 43-car as he showed in practice a week ago. Jones has been effective at moving up through the field at road courses and that’s what we’re expecting again this weekend. Heck he started P31 here last year and finished P10, though that involved some chaos and stage break strategy that is minimized this year.

Dillon is getting better at road courses. That much is true. Though it’s not as clear if you just look at the numbers. Dillon has posted three top-11 finishes in the last 10 road races including a good run here a year ago. It was a solid run at Indy last week and the speed in the 3-car is enough for him to hold on to his P16 starting spot on Sunday. That will be enough at this price and perhaps people are still not that high on Dillon even after moving up 11 spots last week at Indy.

This isn’t a typical inclusion in a road course playbook but here he is anyway. In practice he showed normalized lap times that were inside the top-20 and he’s had some success at road courses previously. Over the last 10 road races, Haley’s posted four top-15s and an average finish of 17.3. That comes with an average starting spot of 20.2, so right where he’s starting on Sunday. We don’t need a ton from him and anything inside the top-15 is bonus at this price point.

He was in the playbook last week and it didn’t exactly go well but we’re getting back on the horse again. There seems to be one week a year where Lajoie shows up out of the blue and runs well at a track we’re next expecting. This, it feels like, is that week. He was quick in practice in the short and long-run before qualifying P10. A lot of people won’t like him from that starting spot based on last week but if we forget about the rough week, we’ll see that he’s an improving road racer with value if he hangs onto the spot and the practice speed makes an appearance on Sunday.