Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs -3.5
O/U: 54.5
Money Line: Chiefs -167; Bills +145
Betting Trends:
- Kansas City is 7-9-1 against the spread (ATS) this season.
- Buffalo is 12-6 ATS this season.
- The total has hit the over in 12 of Buffalo's 18 games.
Weather: Low 30s, cloudy w/ showers (70% chance of rain) and winds blowing NE 10-15mph
Last 5 Match-Ups:
Chiefs lead series 4-1
Average Margin of Victory – 7.4
Last Match-Up – Chief beat the Bills 26-17 in Buffalo during Week 6 of this season
.jpg)
Notable Injuries:
Chiefs:
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB (ankle – questionable -- limited Friday)
- Le'Veon Bell , RB (knee – questionable -- DNP Friday)
- Sammy Watkins , WR (calf – questionable -- limited Friday)
- Willie Gay, LB (ankle -- OUT)
Bills:
- Gabriel Davis, WR (ankle – questionable -- limited Friday)
Defensive Rankings (Using DVOA):
Chiefs:
vs Pass: 16th
vs Run: 31st
Bills:
vs Pass: 12th
vs Run: 17th
Props We’re Watching:
Passing Yards:
Josh Allen – 305.5 (over & under -112)
Patrick Mahomes – 310.5 (over & under -112)
Rushing Yards:
Josh Allen – 33.5 (over & under -112)
Devin Singletary – 39.5 (over & under -112)
Darrel Williams – 41.5 (over & under -112)
Receiving Yards:
Stefon Diggs – 94.5 (over & under -112)
Cole Beasley – 46.5 (over & under -112)
John Brown – 52.5 (over & under -112)
Dawson Knox – 23.5 (over & under -112)
Tyreek Hill – 77.5 (over & under -112)
Travis Kelce – 94.5 (over -118, under -106)
**Remember – just because you don’t see a player listed below, doesn’t mean he is a complete fade.
Captain/MVP
Patrick Mahomes , QB KC – I would love to think people are scared off from the concussion and that he didn’t receive clearance until Friday, but that’s just not going to be the case. Mahomes will remain a very popular choice and why wouldn’t he? He’s got the skill-set and the weaponry to dominate a Bills defense that has seen its fair share of struggles throughout the season and in the playoffs.
Josh Allen , QB BUF – Allen has thrown the ball at least 35 times in six of his last seven games and the one time he didn’t was because he was removed from the game in the third quarter of the Bills Week 17 game against the Dolphins. While the Bills need to be disciplined and run the football against the Chiefs, they will remain a pass-heavy team and this game, albeit in the rain, will end up a shootout between Allen and Mahomes. Only one will fit into your Captain spot. The other should still be in your lineup.
Travis Kelce , TE KC – He has been the one constant in the Chiefs passing game and he sees massive targets in each and every game. His production is unmatched at the tight end position, so if you want to save a few bucks and not use Mahomes or Allen as your Captain, Kelce makes for a phenomenal play.
Mid-Tier
Tyreek Hill , WR KC – Is there anyone in this game with a higher ceiling? Probably not. He had 15 touchdowns this season with three multi-score games and can rattle off 100-plus yards in the blink of an eye. Tre’Davious White isn’t going to be guarding him in the slot which makes it even better for using Hill as Taron Johnson just doesn’t have the wheels to keep pace.
Stefon Diggs , WR BUF – He’s Allen’s No. 1 target and continues to be fed game in and game out. The oblique issue is a thing of the past, not that we were even worried as Diggs has rattled off 100-yard efforts in five of his last six games with six touchdowns in that span. Week 6 wasn’t exactly a master-class from Diggs as he totaled just 46 yards, but he found the end zone in that one and is expected to find it again this week. Maybe even more than once!
Darrel Williams , RB KC – Williams has done more than enough in recent weeks that, even with Clyde Edwards-Helaire expected to play, he should still see substantial work out of the backfield in this one. He is definitely Andy Reid’s choice at the goal line, so even if he doesn’t post huge yardage totals, the possibility of him being the one to punch in is pretty strong in short-yardage situations.
Dart-Throws
John Brown , WR BUF – With Cole Beasley now being off the injury report, you can assume the ownership will be heavy on him. That’s where we turn to Brown who does a better job of stretching the field. Also, not having a fully healthy Gabriel Davis should translate to a higher snap count for Brown. Let the masses jump on Beasley while you get strong results at lower ownership.
Devin Singletary , RB BUF – He’s listed as a dart-throw because, while we all know the Bills should run heavy with Singletary because that’s the way you attack the Chiefs, most will avoid him in DFS because he’s seen double-digit carries just once in the last six Bills games. There is obvious risk here but if you’re playing in a large-field GPP, you have to roster someone everyone else is avoiding but still has potential given the match-up.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB KC – He is expected to play, but perhaps the questionable tag will keep ownership low despite his explosive 161-yard effort against the Bills back in Week 6. CEH could be strong between the 20s if the ankle is ok, but you do have to be wary of the issue when he makes his cuts. This is the contrarian play, believe it or not, as most will have Williams in their lineups.
Super-Dart:
Anthony Sherman , FB KC – You might be able to go back to last year’s Super Bowl and find the pre-game audio from me on the Fantasy Alarm Show when I told you all to play Kyle Juszczyk as a contrarian dart-throw. Well, this is my call for this year. Andy Reid is feeling the swagger from his ballsy call last week to have Chad Henne throw on 4th & inches and he’s going to try and throw things at the Bills they haven’t seen yet. Give me The Sausage on a wheel route for a TD and we’ll all be drinking the sweet nectar of the end zone!
Honorable Mentions: Isaiah McKenzie , Dawson Knox , Demarcus Robinson
Click here for Bucs/Packers Showdown Playbook
Player News
Panthers released TE Jordan Matthews.
Matthews converted to tight end a few years ago and hasn’t made much noise at the position. The change has, however, likely kept him in the league for a few more seasons. He appeared in four games with the Panthers last year but didn’t record any stats on offense. The Panthers also released or waived WR Dax Milne, C Andrew Raym, and TE Colin Granger.
Dolphins released LS Blake Ferguson.
The team also waived CB Ryan Cooper Jr., DT Neil Farrell and OL Chasen Hines. Ferguson has been the team’s long snapper for five seasons and earned a three-year contract extension just before the 2023 season. He should be able to find work snapping footballs farther than the average snap elsewhere in the league.
DetroitLions.com’s Tim Twentyman believes rookie WR Isaac TeSlaa “could make his earliest impact on special teams.”
It’s not much of a surprise, as most rookies cut their teeth with special teams duties. Twentyman mentioned return duties as a possibility, though the former Razorback never returned kicks or punts in college. At 6'4/212 with 4.43 wheels, TeSlaa is an explosive athlete who never translated his physical traits to on-field production at Arkansas. The Lions clearly saw potential for him to do so in the pros and traded two future third-round picks to move up to No. 70 overall for him. It’s going to be a slow burn for TeSlaa in the pros, making him a dynasty-only fantasy option.
Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell said the team does not “have any feelings on competition” when asked about the quarterback room.
O’Connell was asked about a potential quarterback competition on the Rich Eisen Show Wednesday and was unclear on whether J.J. McCarthy would have to compete to start. He said, “we’ve got an obligation as coaches to put our players in position to attack that competition phase.” O’Connell discussed first putting Brett Rypien and the newly acquired Sam Howell in a position to play before any competition would occur. He continued that McCarthy is “owning it” this offseason and is taking snaps from starting center Ryan Kelly. After missing last season with a torn meniscus, McCarthy has been ramping up workouts in the offseason and is the front-runner to start for the Vikings in 2025. As of now, Howell looks to be reinforcement at the backup spot in case it turns out McCarthy is not ready to start.
Texans re-signed DT Foley Fatukasi.
Fatukasi initially joined the Texans last offseason on a one-year contract. The 30-year-old was a rotational defensive lineman, tallying four tackles for loss and one sack. He returns to Houston for 2025, where he will be a part of a deep Texans front seven.
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports Tyreek Hill’s second wrist surgery was part of the original plan and his timeline remains unchanged.
Hill announced the second surgery on social media and Pelissero quickly added some context to the situation. The speedy receiver suffered the wrist injury just before the start of the season and it lingered throughout the year, though he never missed a game because of it. If the second surgery truly is a non-story, an offseason to recover might be what Hill needs to return to form after a down 2024 season. On the other hand, Hill is 31 years old, played his worst football last year, and his offense prioritized targets for Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane. As it stands, Hill might have the highest risk-reward split in fantasy drafts.