Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Spread: Saints -3
O/U: 52
Money Line: Saints -165; Buccaneers +145
Betting Trends:
New Orleans is 2-0 against Tampa Bay this season, outscoring the Buccaneers, 72-26.
New Orleans is 5-0 straight up in its last five games against Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay is 4-2 against the spread (ATS) in its last six games.
Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS in its last five games against New Orleans.
New Orleans is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games.
The total has hit the under in seven of New Orleans' last 10 games.
Weather:
dome
Last 5 Match-Ups:
Saints lead series 5-0
Average Margin of Victory – 16.8
Last Match-Up – Saints beat the Buccaneers 38-3 in Tampa Bay on 11/8/2020
Notable Injuries:
Buccaneers:
- Ronald Jones , RB (quad – DNP Wednesday)
- Mike Evans , WR (knee – limited Thursday)
- Chris Godwin , WR (hip – limited Thursday)
- Jason Pierre-Paul , LB (knee – DNP Wednesday)
- Carlton Davis , DB (groin – limited Wednesday)
Saints:
- Taysom Hill , QB (knee – DNP Thursday)
- Latavius Murray , RB (quad – DNP Wednesday)
- Jared Cook , TE (back – limited Wednesday)
Defensive Rankings (Using DVOA):
Buccaneers:
vs Pass: 5th
vs Run: 1st
Saints:
vs Pass: 3rd
vs Run: 2nd
Props We’re Watching:
Passing Yards:
Drew Brees – 279.5 (over -106; under -118)
Tom Brady – 305.5 (over & under -112)
Rushing Yards:
Alvin Kamara – 60.5 (over & under -112)
Receiving Yards:
Antonio Brown – 54.5 (over & under -112)
Mike Evans – 63.5 (over & under -112)
Chris Godwin – 64.5 (over -121; under -103)
Michael Thomas – 79.5 (over & under -112)
Emmanuel Sanders – 44.5 (over & under -112)
Jared Cook – 31.5 (over -125; under +101)
Please note that players not listed below do not mean they are a complete fade.
Captain/MVP
Tom Brady , QB TB – In two games against the Saints this season, Brady averaged just 224 passing yards and had a 2:5 TD:INT rate. That’s not good. However, and maybe these stats are padded by some real soft opponents, Brady has now averaged 379 passing yards with a 12:1 TD:INT over his last four games, so you can’t tell me he isn’t getting amped up for these playoffs. Expect high-volume passing for Brady and the Bucs this week.
Alvin Kamara , RB NO – Finding running room is going to be tough against such a strong run defense, but Kamara has found the end zone three times in two games against Tampa this season. You can expect a solid effort out of Kamara and perhaps with Taysom Hill possibly out, we can get Kamara a few more passes, especially inside the red zone.
Michael Thomas , WR NO – He finally made his way back to the field last week and Brees targeted him seven times for five grabs, 73 yards and a touchdown. Whether you subscribe to the rumor mill which says Thomas and Brees are at odds, the two of them want to win another Super Bowl title and they know they need to lean on each other to make it happen.
Mid-Tier
Mike Evans , WR TB – Always tough to figure out which Bucs receiver is going to eat the most, but there’s enough to go around and let all three of them get a seat at the big kids’ table. We might be able to get Evans at lower ownership given his knee issues, so keep that in mind before going to contrarian. He’s seen double-digit targets in two of his last three, so if he’s healthy enough to play, expect volume.
Chris Godwin , WR TB – Five touchdowns in his last four games, one 100-yard effort and an average of seven targets per game over his last five. That should say it all, right? He’s going to be in an all-out battle with Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, but Giodwin should be able to beat the coverage, especially if the line is giving Brady time in the pocket.
Drew Brees , QB NO – If it wasn’t for the remote chance that Taysom Hill could still be active, I would have had Brees in the Captain/MVP section. If Hill is out, Brees, thankfully, doesn’t have to immediately leave the field once the Saints get inside the red zone. Just think about all the fantasy points lost because of Sean Payton’s stupidity. Hopefully we don’t have to deal with that this weekend.
Dart-Throws
Antonio Brown , WR TB – He’s still considered the contrarian play among the Tampa wideouts, but we are seeing ownership climb as the DFS sites continue to leave his price tag at an affordable rate. The targets have been inconsistent in recent weeks, but he does have five touchdowns in his last four games. If Brady and the Bucs are going to find success, this passing attack has to click.
Jared Cook , TE NO – The Bucs are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position among the teams playing and Brees is still limited in the number of reliable targets on the field with him. Last week, he was using Deonte Harris a bunch, but match-ups for him and Emmanuel Sanders aren’t as favorable this week. Cook isn’t too bad of a lean here given what we’ve seen from him and Brees in the past.
New Orleans Saints D/ST – Tom Brady ’s numbers have not been strong against the Saints this season, so if you believe his recent run is more a product of soft match-ups, then you’ll want to get the Saints defense into your lineups. The unit is going to try to rattle Brady early and they’re definitely an opportunistic bunch looking to capitalize on turnovers.
Be sure to check out the other Showdown slate articles for the rest of the weekend slate!
Player News
Panthers released TE Jordan Matthews.
Matthews converted to tight end a few years ago and hasn’t made much noise at the position. The change has, however, likely kept him in the league for a few more seasons. He appeared in four games with the Panthers last year but didn’t record any stats on offense. The Panthers also released or waived WR Dax Milne, C Andrew Raym, and TE Colin Granger.
Dolphins released LS Blake Ferguson.
The team also waived CB Ryan Cooper Jr., DT Neil Farrell and OL Chasen Hines. Ferguson has been the team’s long snapper for five seasons and earned a three-year contract extension just before the 2023 season. He should be able to find work snapping footballs farther than the average snap elsewhere in the league.
DetroitLions.com’s Tim Twentyman believes rookie WR Isaac TeSlaa “could make his earliest impact on special teams.”
It’s not much of a surprise, as most rookies cut their teeth with special teams duties. Twentyman mentioned return duties as a possibility, though the former Razorback never returned kicks or punts in college. At 6'4/212 with 4.43 wheels, TeSlaa is an explosive athlete who never translated his physical traits to on-field production at Arkansas. The Lions clearly saw potential for him to do so in the pros and traded two future third-round picks to move up to No. 70 overall for him. It’s going to be a slow burn for TeSlaa in the pros, making him a dynasty-only fantasy option.
Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell said the team does not “have any feelings on competition” when asked about the quarterback room.
O’Connell was asked about a potential quarterback competition on the Rich Eisen Show Wednesday and was unclear on whether J.J. McCarthy would have to compete to start. He said, “we’ve got an obligation as coaches to put our players in position to attack that competition phase.” O’Connell discussed first putting Brett Rypien and the newly acquired Sam Howell in a position to play before any competition would occur. He continued that McCarthy is “owning it” this offseason and is taking snaps from starting center Ryan Kelly. After missing last season with a torn meniscus, McCarthy has been ramping up workouts in the offseason and is the front-runner to start for the Vikings in 2025. As of now, Howell looks to be reinforcement at the backup spot in case it turns out McCarthy is not ready to start.
Texans re-signed DT Foley Fatukasi.
Fatukasi initially joined the Texans last offseason on a one-year contract. The 30-year-old was a rotational defensive lineman, tallying four tackles for loss and one sack. He returns to Houston for 2025, where he will be a part of a deep Texans front seven.
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports Tyreek Hill’s second wrist surgery was part of the original plan and his timeline remains unchanged.
Hill announced the second surgery on social media and Pelissero quickly added some context to the situation. The speedy receiver suffered the wrist injury just before the start of the season and it lingered throughout the year, though he never missed a game because of it. If the second surgery truly is a non-story, an offseason to recover might be what Hill needs to return to form after a down 2024 season. On the other hand, Hill is 31 years old, played his worst football last year, and his offense prioritized targets for Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane. As it stands, Hill might have the highest risk-reward split in fantasy drafts.