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Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
Spread: Bills -3
O/U: 50
Money Line: Bills -148; Ravens +128
Betting Trends:
Baltimore is 4-1 straight up in its last five games against Buffalo.
Baltimore is 7-0 against the spread (ATS) in its last seven games.
Buffalo is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games.
Buffalo is 7-0 straight up in its last seven games.
Weather:
Low 30s, snow showers with 65% chance of precipitation & winds blowing W 17 mph
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Last 5 Match-Ups:
Ravens lead series 4-1
Average Margin of Victory – 12.6
Last Match-Up – Ravens beat the Bills 24-17 in Buffalo on 12/8/2019
Notable Injuries:
Ravens:
- D.J. Fluker , RT (knee – limited Wednesday)
- Matt Judon , LB (illness – DNP Wednesday)
- Marcus Peters , CB (back – DNP Wednesday)
Bills:
- Ed Oliver , DT (ankle – limited Wednesday)
- Tremaine Edwards, LB (hamstring – limited Wednesday)
Defensive Rankings (Using DVOA):
Ravens:
vs Pass: 10th
vs Run: 12th
Bills:
vs Pass: 12th
vs Run: 17th
Props We’re Watching:
Passing Yards:
Josh Allen – 302.5 (over & under -112)
Lamar Jackson – 196.5 (over & under -112)
Rushing Yards
Josh Allen – 38.5 (over -134; under +108)
Lamar Jackson – 74.5 (over -134; under +108)
Devin Singletary – 42.5 (over & under -112)
J.K. Dobbins – 57.5 (over -134; under +108)
Receiving Yards:
Stefon Diggs – 94.5 (over & under -112)
Cole Beasley – 45.5 (over & under -112)
Marquise Brown – 58.5 over -118; under -106)
Dawson Knox – 26.5 (over -106; under -118)
Mark Andrews – 54.5 (over -134; under +108)
Please note that players not listed below do not mean they are a complete fade.
Captain/MVP
Lamar Jackson , QB BAL – He’s playing some of his best football right now and he got the playoff monkey off his back with a win last week. He’ll generally throw for fewer than 200 yards, but he’s easily capable of rushing for over 100, especially against a Bills defense that could flush him out of the pocket quickly, but will struggle to stop him from running on his own. He should be a staple in any Showdown lineup for a Ravens game.
Josh Allen , QB BUF – Allen has taken his game to a whole new level this year, and while he’s said he wants to run less, he still has over 400 yards and eight rushing touchdowns to his credit. The Ravens defense is going to have its hand full with him as he can roll out with the best of them, avoid the pass-rush and find his weapons downfield without much issue.
Stefon Diggs , WR BUF – He’s in the midst of a career year and, despite an oblique issue that cropped up last week, but he and Allen still managed to hook up for a long touchdown. Expect more of the same this week as Marcus Peters and the Ravens secondary can be beaten deep.
Mid-Tier
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J.K. Dobbins, RB BAL – He’s got touchdowns in seven-straight games and eight in total during that stretch. Buffalo struggles against the run, allowing 126 yards per game on the ground over their last three, but keep your yardage expectations in check as you know Lamar will be poaching. Dobbins should still find the end zone, though, so the value is there.
Marquise Brown , WR BAL – Six touchdowns in his last seven games immediately puts him on the docket for Showdown slates and his price for say, a four-game DFS slate, is very affordable as well. Lamar Jackson has locked into him regularly and we should see much of the same this week.
Mark Andrews , TE BAL – If you want to beat the Bills through the air, you have to do it over the middle of the field. Their corners on the outside are just too good. That should put a bundle of targets into Andrews’ lap for this game and I have a very tough time believing the Bills will keep him out of the end zone.
Dart-Throws
Cole Beasley , WR BUF – He was taken off the injury report and should be a force out of the slot for Josh Allen and the Bills passing attack. Yes, Diggs gets the majority of attention and Gabriel Davis gets the deep shots, but it’s Beasley who catches Allen’s eye whenever he needs to move the chains.
Dawson Knox , TE BUF – He’s a Jim Bowden favorite and always seems to find the end zone when Bowden calls his name on the show. He’s got touchdowns in four of his last seven games, including last week, and the Ravens rank 22nd in DVOA against the position.
Miles Boykin , WR BAL – He doesn’t see a world of targets, but Boykin has three touchdowns in his last six games and he does a great job of coming across the middle of the field. You’re going to need a solid dart-throw in this game and I like his chances a lot more than those of Dez Bryant or Devin Duvernay.
Be sure to check out the other Showdown slate articles for the rest of the weekend slate!
Player News
Panthers released TE Jordan Matthews.
Matthews converted to tight end a few years ago and hasn’t made much noise at the position. The change has, however, likely kept him in the league for a few more seasons. He appeared in four games with the Panthers last year but didn’t record any stats on offense. The Panthers also released or waived WR Dax Milne, C Andrew Raym, and TE Colin Granger.
Dolphins released LS Blake Ferguson.
The team also waived CB Ryan Cooper Jr., DT Neil Farrell and OL Chasen Hines. Ferguson has been the team’s long snapper for five seasons and earned a three-year contract extension just before the 2023 season. He should be able to find work snapping footballs farther than the average snap elsewhere in the league.
DetroitLions.com’s Tim Twentyman believes rookie WR Isaac TeSlaa “could make his earliest impact on special teams.”
It’s not much of a surprise, as most rookies cut their teeth with special teams duties. Twentyman mentioned return duties as a possibility, though the former Razorback never returned kicks or punts in college. At 6'4/212 with 4.43 wheels, TeSlaa is an explosive athlete who never translated his physical traits to on-field production at Arkansas. The Lions clearly saw potential for him to do so in the pros and traded two future third-round picks to move up to No. 70 overall for him. It’s going to be a slow burn for TeSlaa in the pros, making him a dynasty-only fantasy option.
Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell said the team does not “have any feelings on competition” when asked about the quarterback room.
O’Connell was asked about a potential quarterback competition on the Rich Eisen Show Wednesday and was unclear on whether J.J. McCarthy would have to compete to start. He said, “we’ve got an obligation as coaches to put our players in position to attack that competition phase.” O’Connell discussed first putting Brett Rypien and the newly acquired Sam Howell in a position to play before any competition would occur. He continued that McCarthy is “owning it” this offseason and is taking snaps from starting center Ryan Kelly. After missing last season with a torn meniscus, McCarthy has been ramping up workouts in the offseason and is the front-runner to start for the Vikings in 2025. As of now, Howell looks to be reinforcement at the backup spot in case it turns out McCarthy is not ready to start.
Texans re-signed DT Foley Fatukasi.
Fatukasi initially joined the Texans last offseason on a one-year contract. The 30-year-old was a rotational defensive lineman, tallying four tackles for loss and one sack. He returns to Houston for 2025, where he will be a part of a deep Texans front seven.
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports Tyreek Hill’s second wrist surgery was part of the original plan and his timeline remains unchanged.
Hill announced the second surgery on social media and Pelissero quickly added some context to the situation. The speedy receiver suffered the wrist injury just before the start of the season and it lingered throughout the year, though he never missed a game because of it. If the second surgery truly is a non-story, an offseason to recover might be what Hill needs to return to form after a down 2024 season. On the other hand, Hill is 31 years old, played his worst football last year, and his offense prioritized targets for Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane. As it stands, Hill might have the highest risk-reward split in fantasy drafts.