The NASCAR playoffs roll into Talladega, Alabama for the Yellawood 500. After Ross Chastain won at Kansas a week ago, will we see a playoff driver win at Talladega? The 2.66-mile superspeedway produces some absolute chaos but also some of the greatest excitement too. 

How do we make YellaWood 500 best bets knowing both sides of the spectrum are possible here? Are we betting heavy or light this week? All that plus NASCAR picks and Yellawood 500 predictions for 2024 coming up.

 

 

 

YellaWood 500 Betting Trends & Strategy

Trends and strategy here both involve the word chaos. That’s what’s expected every time the NASCAR Cup series races at Talladega. If we look over the last several races here in preparation for the 2024 Yellawood 500, 4 of the last 10 winners have started in the top-10.

However, 2 of those 4 started P10. The rest of the winners in that span have started P12 to P19. Cars starting up front are generally shuffled throughout the field either because of pit strategy or because of wrecks from the front of the field due to blocks being thrown. 

If we’re looking to pick winners in our YellaWood 500 best bets, pay attention to starting spots and know it’s unlikely a top-5 driver wins. For top-10s, those have proven to be as wide open as possible. As long as a driver avoids the multiple wrecks we see, they have a shot at a top-10 finish. That’s why the odds for top-10s are shorter this week than most races. 

Lastly, in terms of betting strategy for Yellawood 500 predictions for 2024, we’re spreading our normal units bet around. That means we’re betting less than a unit on any one bet and likely only fractions of units in order to get a bit more exposure to more drivers than normal.

 

 

 

YellaWood 500 Best Bets: Winner Predictions

Ryan Blaney +1200 (FanDuel)

Blaney has 2 wins at Talladega in his career and a couple of runners-up. In the last 5 races here, Blaney has the best average finish too. That kind of record makes a great case to be a favorite, like he is, but we’ll still enjoy the benefit of betting a favorite at a plate track with longer odds.

Kyle Busch +1300 (BetMGM)

Busch has the best average finish at plate tracks this year of 10.0. He also came tantalizingly close to winning at Daytona to make the playoffs. We’re adding him to our YellaWood 500 best bets, and just because this is a playoff race doesn't mean Busch won’t be gunning for a win, I mean look at the speed he had at Kansas last week.

William Byron +1600 (BetRivers)

Byron hasn’t finished outside the top-15 in the last 5 Talladega races. While he’s not won in that span, he’s posted the 2nd-best average finish in that span. Also in his favor is a win in the Daytona 500 to start the season. While he doesn’t need to win to help his playoff stock, a win is never a bad thing this time of year.

Chase Elliott +1600 (BetMGM)

Elliott has 4 top-15 finishes at plate races this year. While not spectacular, solid enough to make him a threat. What does make him a threat though is that he’s won at Talladega before and has the 3rd best average finish here in the last 5 races. Hendrick cars specialize in speed on plate tracks, and we expect him to have top-5 speed once more this week.

 

 

 

Bubba Wallace +2500 (FanDuel)

It’s almost copy and paste at this point for Wallace at a plate track, right? He’s consistently one of the best racers at this discipline. In the 5 plate races this year, Wallace has 3 P6 or better finishes and he has extra motivation this week. Nope, I’m not talking about the court case 23XI levied against NASCAR. I’m talking about him becoming a dad this past week. We always like to tap into that new dad mojo.

Alex Bowman +3000 (FanDuel)

I don’t fully get this line to be honest. This year, among drivers with multiple plate races, Bowman ranks second in average finish (11.0) and is tied for the most top-5 finishes. At Talladega, he has the 5th-best average finish among drivers with multiple races in the last 5 races. So, he’s one of the most consistent drivers at the discipline yet is this far down the betting slip? We’ll take the value on this line for sure.

Chase Briscoe +3600 (FanDuel)

In a similar mold to Bowman above, Briscoe hasn’t been a star, but he’s been solid at plate races. He’s posted 3 top-15s this year at Daytona, Atlanta, and Talladega. In addition, Briscoe has 4 top-15s in the last 5 Talladega races. If he catches some breaks late and avoids the big ones like he’s done well in the past, there could be a season-saving win here.

 

 

 

Talladega Superspeedway Predictions 2024 - Long Shot Winners

Todd Gilliland +4000 (BetMGM)

Gilliland has 4 P13 or better finishes in the last 4 races at Talladega. That includes 3 top-10s. That kind of consistency at a plate track can’t be overlooked, especially for these odds. Not to mention that Gilliland has posted the 5th-best average running position at plate tracks of 12.6.

Corey Lajoie +5500 (FanDuel)

Lajoie is simply better at plate tracks than anywhere else. All of his career top-5 finishes have come at plate races. That’s been regardless of the car he’s been in which is important this week as he’s swapped to the 51-car the rest of the season. That car by the way pulled off a P12 at Atlanta. If Lajoie is near the front once again, he could nab his first Cup win.

Harrison Burton +6000 (BetMGM)

He did win at Daytona, right? He also has 3 P11 or better finishes at these races this year and that includes a P10 here in the Spring. If Burton is near the front late, he’s got a shot to win it and have a massive payout for our YellaWood 500 best bets.

 

 

 

NASCAR Picks: YellaWood 500 Props - Talladega Superspeedway

Kyle Busch Top-10 Finish +105 (BetRivers)

Busch has a 10.0 average finish this year in plate races. Even with as up-and-down as his season has been, Busch is consistent at these races. Busch is still looking for his first win of the season, but for this bet we simply need him to be as good as he’s been at Daytona, Talladega, and Atlanta so far. Getting plus money on a guy who’s averaging this finish is nice too.

Chase Elliott Top-10 Finish +120 (BetRivers)

Elliott has one of the best average finish records at both Talladega and plate races this year. That combination makes him a threat not only for the bet above, but also for a top-10 finish. Last race out at Atlanta he finished P8 and has done that thrice in the last 5 ‘Dega races. Getting plus money on a driver who’s pulled this off 60% of the time is a bonus.

Alex Bowman Top-10 Finish +155 (BetRivers)

Bowman has been consistent at plate races over a little while now. He’s posted a 50% hit rate on this bet in the last 4 Talladega races as well as posting 3 top-5s this year. Needing a strong finish this week to help his case to make the Round of 8, Bowman is certainly one to watch to finish in the top-10 once more when making YellaWood 500 best bets.

 

 

 

Todd Gilliland Top-10 Finish +175 (Caesars)

The Toddfather has 3 top-10s in the last 5 Talladega races. In addition to that, he’s posted an average finish of 13.0 in that span to go with a 12.6 average running position this year at plate races. Gilliland has been solid all year and the 38-car has proven it can run toward the front at plate tracks, and we expect him to do that again this week.

Corey Lajoie Top-10 Finish +240 (FanDuel)

All of Lajoie’s top-5 finishes in his career are at plate tracks. In addition to that he’s swapped car manufacturers to a Ford, which is the dominant manufacturer at plate tracks. Lajoie also has 3 top-15 finishes at plate races this year, prior to swapping cars, and his new car finished P12 in the last plate race too.

Daniel Hemric Top-10 Finish +360 (FanDuel)

Hemric has an average finish of 12.6 in the 5 previous plate races this year. He’s also posted 3 straight P11 or better finishes which includes a P9 here earlier in the year. The implied odds are 21.7%; that gives us value as he’s pulled off this feat 33% of the time at Talladega and 40% of the time this year in general.