MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night Sandhagen vs Font Top DraftKings UFC DFS Picks
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs Font kicks off from Nashville Tennessee with the Prelims at 6:00 PM on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card on ESPN/ESPN+ at 9:00PM. This is a great Main Event and Co-Main Event this week for a free card. Top Contender Cory Sandhagen faces all action Rob Font in a striker vs striker matchup at the top of the card. Sandhagen could be only one win away from a title shot, while Font is looking to move up the rankings and get closer to the top five. The Co-Main Event features Tatiana Suarez’s return to the 115lb division as she takes on former champion Jessica Andrade.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs Font
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Cory Sandhagen vs Rob Font | 9300/6900 | - | Stackability: Low | -330/ +270 | +115/+450 |
| Two of the best strikers in the UFC face each other this week in the Main Event. The pure striking in this matchup is pretty close, but what I think is the difference maker is the durability. Sandhagen has shown he is cast iron and doesn't really show any damage he takes, while on the other hand Rob Font has been dropped multiple times in recent fights which scares me in this matchup against Sandhagen. This fight is highly stackable as Font has put up 70+ pts multiple times in losses and at his $6900 salary that may be enough. I'm picking Sandhagen to win the fight, and I think the odds should be even wider, but I'll be playing some Font as well due to his high upside. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Tatiana Suarez | 9500 | Jessica Andrade | Somewhat-Safe | -360 | -175 |
| Suarez has always been a strong play on DraftKings, and with her making her return to 115 lbs. I think she is a great play here again. Andrade is coming in on short notice and has always struggled with takedown defense and I don't expect that to change. Suarez doesn't really throw any striking volume so the only thing that is going to cause me to not lock in Suarez here is that I think Sandhagen has the higher ceiling and safer floor in a 5-round fight. | |||||
| Billy Quarantillo | 8900 | Damon Jackson | Somewhat-Safe | -188 | +115 |
| BillyQ always comes in as the chalk, but in this matchup as long as he keeps it standing, he is going to crush Jackson. Billy throws a ton of volume, while Jackson has never landed even 50 strikes in a fight so this is a one-sided fight when it isn't on the ground. Quarantillo has struggled early in fights with getting outmuscled, and that is still a concern here but even if he loses the first round, he still likely scores 90+ in a win. | |||||
| Kyler Phillips | 9000 | Raoni Barcelos | Somewhat-Safe | -225 | +200 |
| Phillips in round 1 is going to be a problem for Barcelos, and Barcelos is coming off of an early KO loss so I'm hoping his chin is just shot. If the fight gets to round 2 or later Phillips may end up gassing out, but on a card with other big favorites we need some high upside plays if we are going to challenge the scores that Suarez and Sandhagen are going to put up. | |||||
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 9100 | Ludovit Klein | Moderate | -225 | +200 |
| Bahamondes has volume all day and I don't think what Klein offers is going to be something that can slow down Ignacio. Bahamondes probably wins a decision and lands 100-120 strikes which won't be enough to get on the optimal lineup, but if he does find the KO, he could hit it with the volume that is going to come along with it. | |||||
| Jake Hadley | 8800 | Cody Durden | Moderate | -200 | +115 |
| Durden is going to shoot takedowns so he'll have to get through them to win this fight but if he does his technical striking should be enough to get a win. He has a better inside the distance line than some fighters priced higher than him so he may end up chalky. I'm going to be underweighted on Hadley only because I respect Durden's takedown game and will use the money elsewhere. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Diego Lopes | 8300 | Gavin Tucker | Moderate | -175 | +125 |
| Lopes is going to be the chalk at -175 and only $8300, and while I was really impressed in his UFC debut against Evolev we should still take into account that he lost that fight. If this fight was against some other fighters, I would look to fade a chalky Lopes, but Tucker hasn't fought in over two years and last time out he was KO'd in under a minute. Lopes by submission is my pick but Tucker being off for so long is a real question mark. | |||||
| Jeremiah Wells | 8500 | Carlston Harris | Moderate | -138 | +150 |
| Wells needs to wrestle here to survive this fight against Harris. Wells has shown in his UFC career that he can wrestle and control the fight for long stretches of time, but he was knocked down in two of the three rounds in his last win which is a major red flag. His upside is high, and he has a good inside the distance line, but at -138 for $8500 he could get overlooked compared to Lopes and Kennedy. | |||||
| Assu Almabayev | 8600 | Ode Osbourne | Somewhat-Risky | -180 | +200 |
| Assu has power, and Osbourne has struggled in the past when he is outmuscled. Assu should look to mix in his wrestling, but I don't think he's going to shoot more than one or two takedowns per round because everything he does uses a ton of energy. Osbourne's fights in the UFC have mostly been first round finishes so while I don't expect a ton of output from these guys, if either one wins by first round finish it would be tough for them not to get on the optimal lineup. | |||||
| Dustin Jacoby | 7800 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | Somewhat-Risky | +120 | +350 |
| I don't really love this fight for DK but I'm picking the underdog to get the job done here. Jacoby has shown he can go 15 minutes in multiple fights and that's enough for me to pick him against Kennedy. I don't think Jacoby gets the KO here, but in a decision win he could score 75+ pts. | |||||
| Carlston Harris | 7700 | Jeremiah Wells | Somewhat-Risky | +110 | +165 |
| Harris is either going to KO Wells or get completely dominated in this fight once Wells gets it to the ground. I normally don't call +110 fighters "KO or bust" but he really feels like it in this matchup. | |||||
| Tanner Boser | 8700 | Aleksa Camur | Somewhat-Risky | -150 | +210 |
| Boser doesn't do enough to pay off his $8700 in most of his wins, and against someone like Camur who comes out how in Round 1 I really don't like this matchup for Boser. If Camur gasses out after the first round maybe Boser can KO him in the second, but outside of that I don't think he hits the optimal lineup. | |||||
| Gavin Tucker | 7900 | Diego Lopes | Risky | +140 | +350 |
| Tucker at his best lands multiple takedowns, lands 100 strikes and breaks the slate, but I don't know if he has that in him anymore. Lopes submission game was also really impressive so I'm not even sure Tucker will mix those in for this fight. I'll be passing on Tucker this week. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Cody Durden | 7400 | Jake Hadley | Somewhat-Risky | +165 | +450 |
| Durden is going to shoot takedowns, and while he probably doesn't get the finish, he could still just control the fight with his wrestling and score well enough for $7400. | |||||
| Ode Osbourne | 7600 | Assu Almabayev | Somewhat-Risky | +155 | +230 |
| Assu is a big question mark coming from a week regional scene with a lot of wins vs opponents who have questionable records, so it's possible Ode is just levels ahead of Assu, but I doubt it. Ode has also been actively using his wrestling so he's obviously making improvements from fight to fight. With that said I'd rather take a shot on an underdog vs an unknown instead of one in a tough matchup. | |||||
| Aleksa Camur | 7500 | Tanner Boser | Risky | +120 | +275 |
| Camur trains with Stipe Miocic who is back in camp so hopefully that means he's taking this fight seriously. Camur should win the first round as he always comes out quick and throws haymakers, but he doesn't have any cardio. I'm looking for upside when I play underdogs in this price range and Camur has it if he can land a clean shot. | |||||
| Damon Jackson | 7300 | Billy Quarantillo | Risky | +150 | +300 |
| Jackson has the wrestling and submission skill advantage in this matchup when these guys are fresh so look for him to get this fight down early. His upside is a first-round submission, but if this fight gets into Round 2 Jackson is going to get outworked by BillyQ. | |||||
| Raoni Barcelos | 7200 | Kyler Phillips | Risky | +175 | +400 |
| Barcelos has all the skills to beat Phillips, but he's looked like he's fading lately. Barcelos is getting close to 40 years old, and if he wants to win this fight, I think the key is for him to use his wrestling to tire out Phillips. If Phillips is dictating the pace of this fight, I don't think Barcelos' chin is going to be able to hold up. | |||||
| Ludovit Klein | 7100 | Ignacio Bahamondes | Risky | +170 | +300 |
| This is a tough matchup for Klein as he faces a talented striker who should be able to keep him at range. Klein does mix in wrestling sometimes, so maybe that is the key to victory here, but he doesn't ever sell out for tons of takedowns like some other fighters do. I'll be fading Klein. | |||||
| Jessica Andrade | 6700 | Tatiana Suarez | Risky | +280 | +500 |
| Andrade could give Suarez a tough go on the feet as she is the much better striker, but she has a real big gap in her takedown defense. This is Andrade's fourth fight of 2023 already and with two of them ending in Andrade going unconscious, I'm not sure why she is rushing back so quickly at this point in her career other than to get money. I'll be fading Andrade this week. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Font, Jacoby, Camur, Durden, Osbourne
Picks and Stats
Cory Sandhagen | vs | Rob Font |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 16-4-0 | Record | Record: 20-6-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 9 |
3 | Subs | 4 |
-330 | Vegas Odds | +270 |
Jessica Andrade | vs | Tatiana Suarez |
$6,700 | DFS Salary | $9,500 |
| Record: 24-11-0 | Record | Record: 10-0-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 2 |
8 | Subs | 4 |
+280 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Dustin Jacoby | vs | Kennedy Nzechukwu |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 18-7-1 | Record | Record: 12-3-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 8 |
1 | Subs | 1 |
+120 | Vegas Odds | -150 |
Diego Lopes | vs | Gavin Tucker |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 21-6-0 | Record | Record: 13-2-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 4 |
11 | Subs | 6 |
-175 | Vegas Odds | +140 |
Tanner Boser | vs | Aleksa Camur |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 20-10-1 | Record | Record: 6-2-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 5 |
2 | Subs | 0 |
-150 | Vegas Odds | +120 |
0 | ||
Ignacio Bahamondes | vs | Ludovit Klein |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 14-4-0 | Record | Record: 19-4-1 |
9 | Knockouts | 8 |
1 | Subs | 8 |
-225 | Vegas Odds | +185 |
Kyler Phillips | vs | Raoni Barcelos |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 10-2-0 | Record | Record: 17-4-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 8 |
2 | Subs | 2 |
-225 | Vegas Odds | +175 |
Jeremiah Wells | vs | Carlston Harris |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 12-2-1 | Record | Record: 18-5-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 5 |
4 | Subs | 5 |
-138 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
Billy Quarantillo | vs | Damon Jackson |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 17-5-0 | Record | Record: 22-5-1 (1 NC) |
8 | Knockouts | 4 |
5 | Subs | 15 |
-188 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
Cody Durden | vs | Jake Hadley |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 15-4-1 | Record | Record: 10-1-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 3 |
5 | Subs | 5 |
+165 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
Sean Woodson | vs | Dennis Buzukja |
#N/A | DFS Salary | #N/A |
| Record: 9-1-1 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 4 |
1 | Subs | 1 |
| -195 | Vegas Odds | +165 |
Ode Osbourne | vs | Assu Almabayev |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 12-5-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 17-2-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 3 |
4 | Subs | 8 |
+155 | Vegas Odds | -180 |