NBA DFS Playbook & Core Plays: May 15
Published: May 15, 2022
There is only one thing better than building NBA DFS contests and that’s two Game 7’s on the same day. As we fill out our NBA DFS lineups tonight, we will be hunting for value, because the rotations will be as tight as we have ever seen in these do-or-die matchups. Who are the best NBA DFS plays of the day? Here are the Core Plays for today’s last two-game slate of the season.
Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks
Injury Report:
- Robert Williams – Questionable
- Khris Middleton - Out
Player Breakdown:
Wow. Tatum’s Game 6 performance was the type of game that will go down as legendary as he builds his career resume. An unbelievable 46 points, nine rebounds, 59% from two-pointers, 47% from three-pointers, and four assists. All on the road, in case we forgot. This was the fourth straight game that Tatum’s usage has increased (up to 38% Friday), and you can guarantee it will be up that high again in a win or go home game. He got a salary bump everywhere, but he deserves it.
Tatum’s masterpiece meant the usage was down for Brown in Game 6 (22% when it was 29% in Game 5), but he still put up 35 fantasy points which could have been even better if he was hitting his shots or his free throws. Brown was over 40 minutes in the last game and you can rest assured he will get that much if needed in this one.
Horford comes into this game slightly more expensive than Marcus Smart, but also slightly more reliable in this series. Horford had his sixth straight game with at lest 33 fantasy points and did it with a second straight game under 10% usage. He is crashing the boards (over 10 rebounds per game this series), averages more than three assists, and is at almost two blocks per game.
One of the truly great single playoff game performances ever was produced by Giannis on Friday night, but it just wasn’t enough to help the Bucks pull out a win. He was over 80 fantasy points on all three sites and had an astounding 44% usage in that game plus 20 rebounds. You’ll go broke trying to wager on a performance like that happening again, but the ball will be in Giannis’s hands as much as Milwaukee needs to try and pull out a win in Boston today. At $12,000 on both sites, these are some of the highest salaries we have ever seen, but for this level of play, you just click that button to put him in your lineups.
Holiday was still able to give us about 40 fantasy points even with Giannis dominating the touches in Game 6 on Friday. Holiday did it with only 18% usage because he was all over the court with four assists, three steals, and two blocks. He also played a season-high 42 minutes on Friday, so we got a glimpse of what will be asked of him should Game 7 stay close.
Portis was gifted almost 30 minutes on the court Friday, but it was his poor shooting that helped contribute to the Bucks’ loss. He missed all of his two-point shots and did not attempt a free throw after getting six from the stripe in Game 5. If the Bucks are to win this game today, Portis will have to be a major factor, and we get a small salary decrease on all three sites to help make it work in our lineups. As a third option on this Bucks team, he should provide much more value than any other Bucks player today.
Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns
Injury Report:
- Tim Hardaway - Out
Player Breakdown:
Keeping with the theme of legendary playoff performances in must-have games, Doncic put up 69 fantasy points on Thursday to stave off elimination and live to see a Game 7. According to Statmuse, Doncic’s 39 points per game in elimination games is the highest mark ever, so you know he is going to have the ball in his hands at an incredible rate. His 40.5% usage from Thursday was his highest in the last four games.
Except for Game 2, Brunson has been very consistent this series and has now produced back-to-back 31 fantasy-point games. But with just one rebound and two assists in Game 6, there is room for a lot more today. If we get assists and he is hitting his three-pointers (he missed all of them in Game 6), we could get a repeat of Game 3 when Brunson went off for 42 fantasy points. His salary looks much better on FanDuel today ($6,200).
Finney-Smith and Reggie Bullock seem to be going back and forth between who is getting the fantasy production beyond Doncic and Brunson for Dallas. But I’m betting DFS plays big minutes today and is locked in on defense covering Booker or Mikal Bridges. In the Game when Dallas knocked out Utah, Finney-Smith played 45.5 minutes and scored 37.5 fantasy points. It would be a major upset if DFS doesn’t play at least 42 minutes in a close game today.
This is the type of game Chris Paul was made for. So no, I do not care about four straight games with 23 fantasy points. I care about the fact that we get a major salary drop on all three sites. The issue with the fantasy points is just a production of usage, which hasn’t been above 18% in the last four games. But if this is a close matchup, the ball will be in Paul or Booker’s hands only down the stretch.
Booker had an uncharacteristically bad game on Game 6 despite getting 30% usage. He didn’t make a single three-pointer and he also had eight turnovers. That led to only 31 fantasy points, and I just don’t see that continuing into Game 7. I care more about Booker’s 40+ fantasy points in four out of five games before Thursday night. He and Paul should dominate in this one in front of the home crowd.
Deandre Ayton is also a fine choice, but I’m going to go with the player who (like Dorian Finney-Smith) should play around 40 minutes tonight. That’s led to five games over 30 fantasy points already in these playoffs. I once again believe he will be the primary defender on Doncic tonight, which should lead to plenty of steal and rebound opportunities.
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