In the current landscape of fantasy baseball, having an ace is incredibly important. There’s no denying that. However, one could argue that landing a second starter that could also be an ace is just as important. Finding a guy with big time upside is key, and St. Louis starter Jack Flaherty not only could be, but will be your ticket in 2019.   

Despite having just 172.1 innings at the big league level under his belt, Flaherty will have a full workload this season and shouldn’t be capped by any means, seeing as he threw over 180 innings combined between the bigs and Triple-A last season. While his strikeout rate may decline a bit in 2019, it will remain above a batter per inning, and the likelihood of that walk rate dropping is higher than many may believe.

In the spring, we’ve seen glimpses from Flaherty of what could be in 2019, especially with his command, pitch usage and overall results. Through his first 13 spring innings, Flaherty has 19 strikeouts, which is exceptional, and just three walks. Excellent. Following a season where Flaherty posted a 9.6-percent walk rate, it’s incredibly encouraging to see his walk rate through his first four spring outings sit at a solid 5.9-percent walk rate. He’s issued just three walks in his spring outings to date, and thanks to the one dominant spring start with the seven strikeouts, his strikeout rate hasn’t suffered whatsoever.

Additionally, that 1.19 HR/9 from last season is a bit ugly, but he’s failed to issue a home run yet in spring training. That’s solid, especially since this is another important development for the young right-hander heading into his first full big league season. He did allow a fly ball rate of 36.8-percent last season, but further refinement of his arsenal can help push that number down. Speaking of refining his arsenal, take a look at his pitch usage over the last two years.

He lived off his fastball and slider last season, but the diminished usage in the other pitches wasn’t because he didn’t believe in them, but more so the comfort level was much lower than his bread-and-butter pitches. If he can continue to refine those pitches, his arsenal deepens, and the opposition has even more to worry about. In 2018, despite being viewed by some as a two-pitch pitcher, he had not two, but three, maybe even four effective pitches. See the results of his pitches below, via Brooks Baseball.

PITCH

BAA

SLG

ISO

Fastball

.197

.376

.178

Sinker

.260

.338

.078

Change

.211

.316

.105

Slider

.181

.356

.176

Curve

.156

.156

.000


In terms of the outcomes, he had numerous effective pitches, but he simply didn’t trust a couple of them to throw them enough. Looking at his pitch arsenal (per Baseball Savant) from 2018, especially with his curve and change, one could understand why there was some reluctance to throw those pitches.

The majority of the locations of his changeup aren’t where he wanted to throw them. Ideally, those are at the lower part of the zone to the pitcher’s arm-side, and many of those pitchers either never looked like strikes or were even close. The spots of the curveball aren’t terrible for the most part, especially if primarily throwing them ahead of the count. Again, further refinement of his arsenal and establishing confidence with those secondary pitches will be key for Flaherty developing into a fantasy ace.

Flaherty has received plenty of love here on Fantasy Alarm, especially being named as the one player you must own by Howard Bender in the Draft Guide. I have to say that I agree, and amongst all of the pitchers around his average draft position, it seems that he has the best chance of becoming a fantasy ace as soon as 2019. There are other attractive options as well in that range, but Flaherty is the clear-cut SP2 that has top six or seven potential at his position.

He doesn’t blow anyone away with top-tier velocity, but his arsenal, led by his fastball and nasty slider, keep opposing batters off balance.

It’s been stated numerous times throughout this article, and there is no better way to end this than by saying it once again.

Further refinement of his arsenal, notably increasing the trust in his curveball and changeup, will be the main factor in Flaherty’s development as a fantasy ace.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.com
brooksbaseball.net