Fantasy football is a numbers game.  I know it’s cool to say we’re “football fans first” or say math is for dorks or pretend like we are scouts but the entire concept of fantasy football revolves around scoring points based on the numbers.  And the sooner you embrace that, the sooner you can harness the power of the numbers to obliterate your fantasy opponents.

In this article we are going to give some examples of that by going through each team and giving you one interesting number to think about going into this season.  Because, in the end, no matter how cool a hurdle or a spin move or a stiff arm is, the end result of that play is just numbers to us fantasy gamers.  

Arizona Cardinals – 1

Quite fitting that it’s the first team in the article and the number is one. One is the exact number of carries from within that five yard line that Chase Edmonds has in his career. If you thought Kenyan Drake leaving means that the 6’1” 209 pound Chase Edmonds finally gets the full role to himself, then you might need to think again, as they decided to bring in the 6’1” 233 pound James Conner who’s back looks like some kind of terrifying stingray. Edmonds has exactly one goal line carry of experience and this is his competition. 
 

Atlanta Falcons - 684

Quite a jump from “one”. This is the number of pass attempts the Falcons attempted in 2019. Had Matt Ryan not gotten hurt and had he thrown all of them himself as planned, that would have been third all time behind only Matt Stafford and Drew Bledsoe. In fact, the Falcons have been top five in pass attempts three years in a row now. Does new coach Arthur Smith take the team in a new direction behind running back Mike Davis, or will they continue as one of the league’s top pass attacks which means a lot of targets to trickle down to the likes of Kyle Pitts and Russell Gage? That’s the gamble here.

Baltimore Ravens - Nine million

If you thought the jump from 1 to 684 was steep, how about nine million? This is the dollar amount that will be paid to Gus Edwards over the next two years. ~$4.5M per year makes him the 16th highest paid running back in the entire league. He now makes more than half the league’s starting backs. In half PPR leagues, Edwards was less than 10 points behind JK Dobbins going into his final week of the season making him a potential sneaky play, especially for “Zero RB” drafters. Much like the dichotomy between Chase Edmonds and James Conner, Dobbins is 5’9”, 209 pounds and Gus Edwards is 6’1”, 238.  Last season, on 3rd or 4th down with less than four yards to go, JK Dobbins carried the ball nine times, Gus Edwards carried it 29 times and Lamar Jackson carried it 26 times.

Buffalo Bills - 89.79

Pretty specific number right? That’s the percentage of snaps that Gabriel Davis played in the games where John Brown was injured. In the rest of the games? 48.15%. Davis also played 72.29% of his snaps out wide while Brown was out, but only played 33.55% out wide while Davis was healthy, playing the slot instead. In the playoffs after he returned, John Brown played 92.5% of the snaps and Davis only played 39%. Davis got seven targets in the last two playoff games and caught none of them. John Brown is now gone but they brought in another flanker in Emmanuel Sanders. They are both good values at their ADP so you need to make a bet whether Sanders or Davis gets that John Brown flanker role that was playing 90% of the snaps last year in a prolific offense.  

Carolina Panthers - 466

Carolina Panthers tight end Ian Thomas ran 466 routes last year which was the ninth most in the league for tight ends. On those routes, he only managed 20 receptions, which was 47th in the league for tight ends. It is easily one of the least efficient pass catching seasons for a tight end in years. That’s part of the reason that the Panthers signed Dan Arnold, who is much more of a pass catching tight end than he is a blocker. Don’t believe us? Check out this clip of the Panthers General Manager talking to his agent before they signed him. The Panthers obviously have a wealth of pass catchers but offensive coordinator Joe Brady did orchestrate one of the greatest offensive seasons of all time at LSU so there could be a lot of targets to go around.

Chicago Bears - 4.38

This is the 40-yard dash time run by Bears flanker Darnell Mooney, which is in the 95th percentile of all wide receivers per Player Profiler. If you look at the moves made by Matt Nagy and Ryan Pace since joining Chicago, it’s obvious they’ve been trying to recreate Nagy’s offense from Kansas City. They brought in a big bodied split end in Allen Robinson (the Sammy Watkins role). They inherited a two back system with Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen, but the offense they want to run uses a balanced, single back so they traded Howard then traded up to draft David Montgomery, and they have been using Jimmy Graham and Cole Kmet to recreate the Kelce role as best as possible. The Bears 479 tight end routes run from a wide receiver position was the fourth most in the league (more than Kansas City’s 474 even), which leaves the speedy Darnell Mooney to play the Tyreek Hill role. We know how prolific that role can be if things go according to plan.

Cincinnati Bengals - 100

It’s incredibly rare for three wide receivers all on the same team to each get over 100 targets. Prior to 2020 the last time it happened was the 2016 Saints with Michael Thomas, Brandin Cooks, and Willie Snead. But last year, even with the injury to Joe Burrow, all three of Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and AJ Green got over 100 targets. With Green out, they bring in a rookie WR in Ja’Marr Chase who played with Joe Burrow at LSU in college so they might not skip a beat there.  It’s a rare occurrence, but the Bengals are one of the few teams that could make it happen again. 

Cleveland Browns - 197

Per Pete Smith of Sports Illustrated, last year Jarvis Landry said he was playing at 212-213 pounds. This year he’s working out at 197 pounds and that’s where he plans to play. According to Landry himself, he bulked up to help with the run game but he felt it hurt his speed and quickness. At the new weight he feels like he can continue to contribute in the run game while being far more explosive in the pass game. For fantasy football, we don’t really care how well he run blocks. 

Dallas Cowboys - 499

This is the number of pass snaps that Ezekiel Elliott played last season; the most in the league. His 789 overall RB snaps were also the most in the league. Given the injuries to the offensive line, he was asked to pass block on the most snaps in the league (99) while still running 387 routes, which was the third most of any running back and 33 more than Alvin Kamara. Elliott also led the league with carries inside the five yard line with 24. If he can still be an RB1 in fantasy while losing his QB, TE, LT, RT, RG, and backup LT,  just imagine how good he can be now that all those guys are back?

Denver Broncos - 1,112

Last year Courtland Sutton missed Week 1 and then he played in 40% of the snaps in Week 2 before tearing his ACL and going on injured reserve. Despite playing only 40% of the snaps in that one game, he had six targets, three catches, and 66 yards. The year before that in his sophomore season he had 1,112 yards and six touchdowns. Being injured so early in the season puts him at the back of our mind, but it also gives him more time to recover, so Sutton is expected to be back for training camp and he believes that he’s ready to pick up right where he left off, claiming that he is actually stronger now than he was before he got hurt.

Detroit Lions - 4

Four is the maximum number of compensatory picks a team can receive back for losing free agents. When you sign incoming players to big contracts, it cancels out those picks. The Lions are tanking this year and want to max those picks out, so they let five veterans leave meaning they could sign one incoming player to a multi-year deal without disrupting that formula. They signed pass down specialist Jamaal Williams to the third most guaranteed money of any free agent RB behind only Kenyan Drake and Chris Carson. More than guys like Leonard Fournette or Mike Davis. Vegas is aware that the team is tanking as they currently have them pegged as the worst team in the NFC by far based on the odds. Could be rough sledding for a guy like D’Andre Swift under these conditions.

Green Bay Packers - 30/30

Aaron Jones has scored 30 touchdowns in his last 30 games and that was with the aforementioned Jamaal Williams who is now gone. The team may have lost all star center Corey Linsley, but the opportunity for Jones now without the pass catching back hindering those snaps is immense. The real key here of course is Aaron Rodgers. Did LeGarrette Blount score 18 touchdowns in 2016 on his own or was it because he was playing with one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time?  Aaron Rodgers is also one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time and a big part of the success for Aaron Jones.

Houston Texans - 197

Players that have left the Houston Texans this offseason have vacated a combined 197 targets.  That spans all positions like wide receiver Will Fuller, running back Duke Johnson, and tight end Darren Fells. They didn’t do much to bring in guys in a down year, but the ball is going to need to go somewhere.  n the late rounds of best ball or even regular drafts, guys like rookie wide receiver Nico Collins or tight end Jordan Akins become kind of interesting as players who could pick up some of that slack. 

Indianapolis Colts - 144

Per Pro Football Focus, there were 152 running backs that played enough pass blocking snaps to deserve a grade. Jonathan Taylor graded out as running back #144 in pass blocking. Considering there are only 32 teams, we don’t need to tell you what that means. With Nyheim Hines on the roster still, he needs to figure this aspect of his game out if he wants to be considered in the elite echelon of fantasy RBs. He’s not the first young RB to struggle in pass protection so it’s not the end of the world. But, if you were wondering why other Colts backs continued to play on pass downs last season despite Taylor’s breakout year, that’s why.

Jacksonville Jaguars - 194

Legendary college coach Urban Meyer finally makes his foray into the NFL game to see if some of his success can translate. One of his favorite and most successful college players was wide receiver Percy Harvin who played for him for three years in Florida from 2006 to 2008. Harvin had 194 carries during 36 games which is over five carries a game. Not bad for a wide receiver. Reports so far are that first round rookie Travis Etienne has been working out with the wide receivers for most drills because Meyer is already confident in his ability to take handoffs.  This type of hybrid player is a high risk, high reward option as a wide receiver who gets regular carries is tantalizing, but we’ve also seen “gadget” players who are incredibly inconsistent from week to week. If it works though, expect more of it from other teams as the NFL is a copycat league after all. 

Kansas City Chiefs - 549

Sammy Watkins played 549 offensive snaps last season. He was never really particularly fantasy relevant besides a few outlier games, but he was a consistent run blocker and could line up at split end. Watkins is gone now and the Chiefs essentially opted to keep their core of Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, and Byron Pringle. Hardman is a speedster built more like fellow flanker Tyreek Hill, Demarcus Robinson is more of a prototypical split end, while Byron Pringle actually graded out as the best run blocking WR per PFF. With that many snaps to allocate in a high powered offense, one of these players could burst onto the scene for fantasy in a big way. 

Los Angeles Chargers - 159

Joe Lombardi, grandson of legendary coach Vince Lombardi, spent a long time with the Saints and subscribes to Sean Payton’s style of coaching. We all know how good Alvin Kamara has been there in the pass game. In 2014 Lombardi got an opportunity to call the plays for the Lions and he brought that philosophy with him, as the running backs on the Lions combined for 159 targets. The following year, however, he was fired. Now, he becomes the play caller for the Los Angeles Chargers who have one of the premiere pass catching backs in the league. Seems like a match made in heaven. 

Los Angeles Rams - 21.9%

Rams fans and fantasy fans alike should be ecstatic that they made a trade for quarterback Matthew Stafford. Since they gave up two first round picks, they clearly consider him an upgrade over Jared Goff, which should be an upgrade for most of the offense. But Sean McVay is still the coach and those tendencies don’t usually change with the QB. That brings me to 21.9%, which is the percentage of pass snaps that Tyler Higbee blocked on last season. That is the number that creates a massive uphill battle towards high end production as that’s 93 routes he could have run. People will point at the exit of Gerald Everett, but even during the five game span in 2019 against terrible TE defenses where Higbee was relevant, he blocked on 20% of his pass snaps, so be cautious with what you expect the ceiling to be for Tyler Higee, especially considering they drafted a WR named Jacob Harris that they are converting to tight end.

Miami Dolphins - 21

“Twenty-One” or 2-1 personnel is a formation that utilizes two backs at the same time, typically a fullback and a halfback. There are few teams that utilize the fullback these days, which is honestly a good thing for fantasy football. When a fullback comes into the game, that means someone needs to come out and it’s usually a wide receiver. Teams that heavily use fullback like Baltimore, New England, Minnesota, San Francisco rarely have a third WR of any relevance. The Dolphins not only signed TE/fullback hybrid Cethan Carter to a multi-year deal, but they also drafted fullback Carl Tucker from Alabama. Using more FB would be great for Myles Gaskin but would be bad news for at least one of DeVante Parker, Will Fuller, or Jaylen Waddle. Dolphins head coach Brian Flores did come over from the New England Patriots who utilize fullback heavily so he’s got experience with it. 

Minnesota Vikings - 100%

We mentioned how the Vikings use a fullback at times in CJ Ham (along with two tight end sets), which essentially leaves them with two wide receivers in Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson. Last year, per Player Profiler, both players had a 100% route participation. That means that, in games where they played, they were running a route on 100% of the pass snaps. Which is absurd usage for one player and an even more impressive commitment for two. Based on that, both players are probably going to be trustworthy and potentially valuable at their ADP, especially Adam Thielen who is available multiple rounds after Justin Jefferson.  

New England Patriots - 56.7

The New England Patriots tight ends combined for 56.7 PPR points last season.  Ryan Izzo led them with 32.9. A far cry from the days of Rob Gronkowski. The Panthers tight end group combined for 59.4 PPR points and no other team’s tight ends combined for less than 100. The Patriots clearly decided to rectify that by going out and buying the two most expensive free agent tight ends available in Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry. The Patriots are notoriously tight lipped about their plans so it’s a difficult to identify which guy will be better for fantasy football, but Hunter Henry is the prototypical in-line tight end and has had more success in the passing game thus far in his career, making him feel like the safer bet for consistency from week to week.

New Orleans Saints - 83

For three years in a row, Alvin Kamara had 81 receptions, which is mind boggling considering he had various levels of usage, injuries, different QBs etc. Last year he broke the streak by having 83. 81, 81, 81, 83 is about as consistent as it gets but this year Drew Brees is completely off the radar, so he will be catching passes from either Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill. Given the nature of mobile QBs, Winston would probably be best for Kamara’s value, but it’s going to be a risk drafting Kamara either way without Brees around. A risk that could pay off handsomely if they decide to lean on Kamara more than ever while they figure out the QB position.  

New York Jets - 24%

Last year Chris Herndon was the Jets starting tight end. He played on 454 pass plays, but head coach Adam Gase asked him to block on 24% of them. That’s 109 plays where he could have been running a route and that’s not unusual for Gase either. In the last year he coached the Dolphins in 2018, he asked Mike Gesicki to block on 17.7% of his pass plays. Gesicki finished as TE59 that year. In 2020 under Brian Flores, Gesicki played a similar number of pass snaps to Chris Herdnon (473) but he only blocked on eight of them which is 1.7%. Gesicki finished as TE7.  Something to think about with the exit of Adam Gase.

New York Giants - 8

The New York Giants success (or lack thereof) relies on one guy’s shoulders this year. Number 8: Daniel Jones. Last year he threw 11 TD passes, threw 10 interceptions, and had 11 fumbles. Unacceptable. You could argue he lost Saquon Barkley or didn’t have much pass catching help, but there are no excuses this year. Barkley is back, they signed the vet Kenny Golladay to big money, they drafted a first-round WR in Kadarius Toney, and even added a blocking tight end in Kyle Rudolph. There might not be a player on a hotter seat this year than Daniel Jones.

Las Vegas Raiders - 5.5 million

The highest paid free agent running back this year received two years, $11 million.  That’s the contract for Kenayn Drake. His $5.5 million per year is also the highest and his $8.5 million guaranteed is the highest by $3 million (next closest was Seattle’s Chris Carson, who needed to use the dreaded void third year just to make his contract work). Kenyan Drake is a skilled pass catching back and he also recorded the third fastest on field play of any player on a 69-yard touchdown run in Week 6, per NFL.com’s Next Gen Stats. If you think that the Raiders paid Kenyan Drake all that money to simply be a backup you must be outside of your mind. 

Philadelphia Eagles - 22.2%

Coming into the league, Miles Sanders was touted as a three-down workhorse who could especially contribute in the passing game and he did just that in his rookie year catching 50 passes on 63 targets. However, in his second season, he took a massive step backwards in the passing game. He only caught 28 of 52 targets, a 53.8% catch rate, after being just under 80% the year prior and it wasn’t just because the throws were bad. Sanders dropped eight of those passes, which was a 22.2% drop rate. That was the highest drop rate of any running back who got at least 25 targets. The Eagles put Sanders on notice by drafting rookie Kenneth Gainwell, who caught 51 passes at Memphis last year so Sanders better figure things out early.  

Pittsburgh Steelers - 2.17

Ben Roethlisberger’s average time to throw last season was 2.17 seconds – the fastest of any regular starting quarterback in the league. The only other QBs under 2.4 seconds were Ryan Fitzpatrick (2.38) and Phillip Rivers (2.39). On plays where Big Ben got the ball out in less than 2.5 seconds he had a 70% completion percentage, 26 TDs, and four INTs. On plays longer than that he had a 52.6% completion percentage, seven TDs, and six INTs. The Steelers lost essentially every starting lineman from the previous season, so it’s in Big Ben’s best interest to get that ball out of his hands quickly.  That should bode well for the WRs running the short routes.   

San Francisco 49ers - 23.09

In Week 1 last year Raheem Mostert touched an absurd 23.09 miles per hour on an 80-yard run per NFL Next Gen Stats. In Week 2 Mostert hit 22.73 miles per hour. Those were the two fastest times recorded all season. Only two other players even cracked 22 miles per hour; Kenyan Drake at 22.11 and Jonathan Taylor at 22.05. The 49ers already had one of the best offensive lines in the league before they brought in center Alex Mack so the line is ready to go. The 49ers did draft a running back in Trey Sermon, but the biggest obstacle in the way of Raheem Mostert is his own ability to stay healthy. His career has been riddled with injuries. 

Seattle Seahawks - 96.7%

That’s the snap share of DK Metcalf, which, per Player Profiler, was second only to Terry McLaurin’s 98.1%. If a second year player is playing nearly 100% of the snaps, it’s pretty clear that they like what they have. Tyler Lockett isn’t far off with his 92.8% snap share. The Seahawks added a slot guy in D'Wayne Eskridge and a tight end in Gerald Everett, but they made no alterations on the outside so we should one again expect Metcalf and Lockett to play nearly every snap at WR. They also both received right around one fourth of the team’s targets making them both likely consistent options for fantasy once again. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 10

The Bucs pulled off a feat we’ve never seen, which was bring back all 22 starters from the year before. So we wouldn’t expect the offense to change much. Except for one aspect of the game, which was pass catching from the running backs.  Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette each dropped five passes apiece combining for 10 dropped passes. They also graded out as RBs #113 and #136 in pass blocking respectively. That might explain why the Buccaneers decided to bring in passing down specialist Giovanni Bernard to help out.  

Tennessee Titans - 25

Over the last decade or so, there have only been two running backs to finish top five in either PPR format with less than 25 receptions. They would be Marshawn Lynch in 2012 and Derrick Henry. In fact, Henry has never caught more than 20 passes in a season. Over the last five years, the average top-10 running back in half point PPR has caught 54.8 passes. At 27, we don’t expect Henry to all of a sudden just develop that part of his game so, if you are drafting Henry as a top five running back, just know what you are up against. He essentially needs to lead the league in rushing yards and/or touchdowns without those points, which he’s clearly capable of doing. But the downside is glaring. 

Washington Football Team - 609

The tight end who ran the second most routes of any tight end in the league was super star Travis Kelce with 566 routes run. The leader? Logan Thomas with 609. I broke it down in this tweet below but there is some misconception about what the Washington Football Team does based on available stats out there. Check out the tweet for more detailed info but the short and sweet of it is that Logan Thomas doesn’t really play “tight end”. He’s more of a “big slot” who lines up at traditional tight end sometimes. Last year he played 732 snaps at WR and only 324 at in-line tight end. There is more target competition this year, but I don’t expect his usage to change much as he’s not much of a blocker.